Joe Lunardi Bracketology

#1
CAVol

CAVol

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#1
You have to be an ESPN insider to see it but I thought a summary of the article would be good.

He currently has Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State with a 75% or greater chance of getting in. He has Bama on the "soft" bubble. I assume that means that it is possible for any number of teams to break in to the bubble if they play well down the stretch (good new for us if you ask me).

That means there are, at present, 4 SEC teams and possibly 5 getting in to the tournament. He says in the article that he expects 5 SEC teams in. He projects 15 possible at-large bids in this years tournament.

The chart in the article a great outline of the NCAA tournament picture as a whole.
 
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#2
#2
Chart attached. Has much more info than I could summarize. I retyped it into a Word document then saved it as a picture in Paint.
 

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#3
#3
He projects 5 and last I saw statsheet projects 8 I believe. Lunardi is usually dead on though, but even with 5 we win out and finish 18-12 win 2 in sec t end up 20-13 and 2nd best sec no way were left out.

In all honesty if we get a bye, meaning we finished 1-4 in standings, as long as we win 1 game I think we are in.
 
#4
#4
bleedingTNorange said:
He projects 5 and last I saw statsheet projects 8 I believe. Lunardi is usually dead on though, but even with 5 we win out and finish 18-12 win 2 in sec t end up 20-13 and 2nd best sec no way were left out.

In all honesty if we get a bye, meaning we finished 1-4 in standings, as long as we win 1 game I think we are in.
Click to expand...

Take away the Austin Peay loss and I say we are in for sure. Regardless, if we win out that means we beat a bubble team in Bama, a top 15 RPI team in Florida twice, and Vandy once. Not to mention UCONN who is struggling but still holds a top 20 RPI. I think those wins will outweigh the horrible Austin Peay loss. Especially since it was at the beginning of the year.
 
#5
#5
Bama is at serious risk of slipping off the bubble. If they lose this weekend, at home, plus another one down the line and I think they're NIT bound.

Miss State is safer, but still trending toward the bubble. RPI of 47 w/ an SOS of 74. They play Kentucky and Bama (In T-town), and could conceivably go 3-2 down the stretch. A slip up to a lower tier SEC school to close the season or in the SECT would be disastrous.

Two SEC teams that could make noise could be LSU and, believe it or not, Ole Miss. Missy has an RPI of 51 and a projected SOS of 30. Missy's schedule is by far the toughest to close out the season though.
 
#7
#7
MemphisCanes said:
Bama is at serious risk of slipping off the bubble. If they lose this weekend, at home, plus another one down the line and I think they're NIT bound.

Miss State is safer, but still trending toward the bubble. RPI of 47 w/ an SOS of 74. They play Kentucky and Bama (In T-town), and could conceivably go 3-2 down the stretch. A slip up to a lower tier SEC school to close the season or in the SECT would be disastrous.

Two SEC teams that could make noise could be LSU and, believe it or not, Ole Miss. Missy has an RPI of 51 and a projected SOS of 30. Missy's schedule is by far the toughest to close out the season though.
Click to expand...

If ole miss wins tonight ill take them seriously, I just have a hard time believing in a ole miss team.
 
#8
#8
20 wins and we are in. either win out in reg season and then win 1 sec tourney game, or win 4 reg season games and 2 tourney games. it will take this to go to the dance. the a peay, oakland and charleston games killed our rpi !!! GBO !!!!
 
#10
#10
sdowell said:
20 wins and we are in. either win out in reg season and then win 1 sec tourney game, or win 4 reg season games and 2 tourney games. it will take this to go to the dance. the a peay, oakland and charleston games killed our rpi !!! GBO !!!!
Click to expand...

Chaminade is or is not considered a win for NCAA Tourney purposes.

Told it wasn't....two games killing us the SEC Loss to GA on the Road and the Loss to Austin Peay.
 
#11
#11
Chaminade game is not considered. It would be impossible for any rankings formula to include a game against a D2 opponent, unless they bothered to also rank every D2 team. To most, the result of including that game isn't worth the time spent tracking every D2 team all season. That's my take.
 
#12
#12
Sudden Impact said:
Chaminade is or is not considered a win for NCAA Tourney purposes.

Told it wasn't....two games killing us the SEC Loss to GA on the Road and the Loss to Austin Peay.
Click to expand...

If you got to http://www.rpiforcast.com/teams/Tennessee.html and scroll down about half way you will see a team by team breakdown of positive or negative effects on UT's RPI. As I have said many many many times CoC and Oakland were not RPI killers(though they were missed opportunities). One is currently slightly positive and the other is neutral. The games that are killers were louis-Monroe, Citadel, chatty, SoCar and AP. UT's record itself is a big negative, but winning out will handle that.

Edit: Sudden, I'm not arguing with you. I quoted your post when I meant to quote the guy you were replying to.
 
#13
#13
zansdad said:
If you got to http://www.rpiforcast.com/teams/Tennessee.html and scroll down about half way you will see a team by team breakdown of positive or negative effects on UT's RPI. As I have said many many many times CoC and Oakland were not RPI killers(though they were missed opportunities). One is currently slightly positive and the other is neutral. The games that are killers were louis-Monroe, Citadel, chatty, SoCar and AP. UT's record itself is a big negative, but winning out will handle that.

Edit: Sudden, I'm not arguing with you. I quoted your post when I meant to quote the guy you were replying to.
Click to expand...

thx I did not take it that way at all...I am confused about the 20 wins and that tells me that we win out 5 and then 2 SEC T games to accomplish a 20 win season or is it 4-1 plus 2 in sec for 20 wins.
 
#14
#14
Sudden Impact said:
thx I did not take it that way at all...I am confused about the 20 wins and that tells me that we win out 5 and then 2 SEC T games to accomplish a 20 win season or is it 4-1 plus 2 in sec for 20 wins.
Click to expand...

With the projections including the tourney there are multiple ways to get to 20 wins. You kinda have to sift through them in your head. But the most reasonable way for them to get to 20 IMO is go 4-1 not get a bye and then reach the championship game. That would make the final record (as far as RPI is concerned) 20-14. Not great but solid enough to get them into the discussion for one of the last at large bids, again IMO.
 
#15
#15
I'd really like to close out 5-0, to put us on more solid ground entering the SECT. I hope we don't have to bank on reaching the SECT Final, because historically, we very seldom do that.
 
#16
#16
ukvols said:
I'd really like to close out 5-0, to put us on more solid ground entering the SECT. I hope we don't have to bank on reaching the SECT Final, because historically, we very seldom do that.
Click to expand...

agree 100%.

i really like the way things look if we are able to win out, also will start to garner some attention which in all honesty you want when it comes to getting into the tournament.
 
#17
#17
Take a look at last years schedule and results. We lost to a TERRIBLE Charlotte team by 1 at their house, we got beat by USC and waxed by College of Charleston at home. We ended the season with 17 wins I think plus a SEC tourny win. Although the AP lose was bad it was at the right time of the season I believe. The committee will see who is hot at the moment and take all things in to account. We take care of business from here on out and we are ok. We DONT have to win 20 games to be in. It would be nice though
 
#22
#22
Velo Vol said:
Eh?
Click to expand...

Ole Miss certainly looked terrible last night. They have more chances to get a signature win or two before the end of the season, but not playing as they did last night. Lot's of infighting on that team right now too.

LSU still on track though.
 
#23
#23
MemphisCanes said:
Bama is at serious risk of slipping off the bubble. If they lose this weekend, at home, plus another one down the line and I think they're NIT bound.

Miss State is safer, but still trending toward the bubble. RPI of 47 w/ an SOS of 74. They play Kentucky and Bama (In T-town), and could conceivably go 3-2 down the stretch. A slip up to a lower tier SEC school to close the season or in the SECT would be disastrous.

Two SEC teams that could make noise could be LSU and, believe it or not, Ole Miss. Missy has an RPI of 51 and a projected SOS of 30. Missy's schedule is by far the toughest to close out the season though.
Click to expand...

Ole Miss just got absolutely ROCKED by Vandy so i doubt they'll be making any noise
 
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