I'd think he's got to get up somewhere close to 200 wins to be a lock; for a pitcher of his stature to be sitting right now on only 136 at age 33 is sort of amazing. There's probably no way he gets to 200, but he's got to get up near it. If he ends up with a career record of, say, 165-105 and an ERA over 3.50, he's going to be sweating it for a few years.
The sad thing is that throwing the Mets' only no-hitter in history will count way more for the voters than winning two Cy Youngs in Minnesota did.