Dobbs 4 Heisman
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So after watching the film, combine, and pro days of the top QBs in this year's draft, I can say with pretty good confidence that Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the 2 best QBs from this year's draft.
I would rate the top 5 QBs in this order:
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold are true franchise QBs. Allen and Jackson have more physical gifts but Darnold is close behind. Darnold reminds me a lot of Wentz. He's just not as gifted in terms of size. But with the right pieces around him he can be an elite QB in the NFL. I think Allen, Jackson, and Darnold are in a tier of their own. Then I would put Josh Rosen in the next tier. Rosen has the ability to be a franchise QB like Allen, Jackson, and Darnold, but I question his durability. He's not mobile and he's had issues staying healthy in college. However, if he can stay healthy, he can be an Eli Manning clone in the NFL. With the right pieces around him, I can see Josh Rosen leading a team to a championship but he's not like Lamar Jackson who can raise the level of a team by himself. That is what makes Lamar Jackson unique among all these QBs.
And finally we get to Baker Mayfield. This is the guy I have the most questions about. He's short, has below average athleticism, and has played in an air raid offense where his receivers were always open. I've seen nothing in his film that shows me NFL throws or an NFL skill set. Add to that the fact he's always played with the most talent in a conference with not much in the way of defense. I just don't see Mayfield becoming a great QB in the NFL with his lack of elite NFL tools. I also have questions about his personality. He seems to be the type that is into the limelight and celebrity of the position. Like Manziel its possible this leads to him not working as hard in the classroom as he needs to in the NFL to become successful with subpar measureables.
This is a very exciting QB class. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold are all top 10 picks in my book. Josh Rosen is a solid mid-1st round QB. And I would only take a gamble on Baker Mayfield in Day 2. He's not a 1st rounder in my book with his lack of prototypical NFL measureables and his questionable off-field behavior.
- Josh Allen has the best long term potential. He might not immediately be the best and might need to sit for a year behind a veteran QB to learn, but the rewards down the road with him will be the highest. The guy is literally the PERFECT quarterback from a measurements and skills perspective. He's got ELITE size, arm talent, mobility, and pretty good intangibles. I don't see how he won't be a huge success in the NFL. The issues with accuracy are a myth. That's more about the lack of talent around him than anything to do with him. In terms of accuracy, Josh Allen is more than adequate, he's solid.
- The best short term QB talent in this year's draft is Lamar Jackson. He's going to turn around a team the soonest. Remember how good Deshaun Watson was last year? Lamar Jackson is that and then some. No one in the NFL is ready for his athleticism. He'll set the league on fire next season. The only reason I wouldn't rate him over Josh Allen is durability. Now Lamar Jackson has had no durability issues to date but when running is such a big part of your game, you are bound to get hurt. And I'm not as confident in Lamar becoming a pocket passer as I am Josh Allen over the long term. Still any team that gets Lamar Jackson next year is getting a taller Michael Vick. Lamar Jackson is the only QB in this year's draft with the talent to carry an entire team on his back as a rookie. His talent is that good.
I would rate the top 5 QBs in this order:
- Josh Allen (Wyoming) - Top 5 grade......NFL comp: Dan Marino with mobility
- Lamar Jackson (Louisville) - Top 10 grade......NFL comp: taller Michael Vick
- Sam Darnold (USC) - Top 10 grade......NFL comp: shorter Carson Wentz
- Josh Rosen (UCLA) - mid-1st round grade......NFL comp: less durable Eli Manning
- Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) - 2nd-3rd round grade.....NFL comp: Case Keenum with better arm strength
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold are true franchise QBs. Allen and Jackson have more physical gifts but Darnold is close behind. Darnold reminds me a lot of Wentz. He's just not as gifted in terms of size. But with the right pieces around him he can be an elite QB in the NFL. I think Allen, Jackson, and Darnold are in a tier of their own. Then I would put Josh Rosen in the next tier. Rosen has the ability to be a franchise QB like Allen, Jackson, and Darnold, but I question his durability. He's not mobile and he's had issues staying healthy in college. However, if he can stay healthy, he can be an Eli Manning clone in the NFL. With the right pieces around him, I can see Josh Rosen leading a team to a championship but he's not like Lamar Jackson who can raise the level of a team by himself. That is what makes Lamar Jackson unique among all these QBs.
And finally we get to Baker Mayfield. This is the guy I have the most questions about. He's short, has below average athleticism, and has played in an air raid offense where his receivers were always open. I've seen nothing in his film that shows me NFL throws or an NFL skill set. Add to that the fact he's always played with the most talent in a conference with not much in the way of defense. I just don't see Mayfield becoming a great QB in the NFL with his lack of elite NFL tools. I also have questions about his personality. He seems to be the type that is into the limelight and celebrity of the position. Like Manziel its possible this leads to him not working as hard in the classroom as he needs to in the NFL to become successful with subpar measureables.
This is a very exciting QB class. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Sam Darnold are all top 10 picks in my book. Josh Rosen is a solid mid-1st round QB. And I would only take a gamble on Baker Mayfield in Day 2. He's not a 1st rounder in my book with his lack of prototypical NFL measureables and his questionable off-field behavior.