This is merely a thought and one for which I have no actual evidence.
On a certain Sunday evening each March, the tournament bracket is finalized and announced. Each team has three to four days (this includes travel days) to prepare for their first round opponent. If they happen to win in the first round, they have one day to prepare for their second round opponent. If you happen to be a better than decent team, you will most likely be paired against a team that is not even in the Top 50 of the RPI (maybe not even in the Top 100), in the first round; but, almost certainly, you will be paired with a Top 50 (most likely Top 30) team in the second round. Knowing this, what team do you spend the majority of your time preparing for?
I would argue that it is human nature to prepare more thoroughly for more difficult tasks. If you are Duke, do you spend your week preparing for a Mercer team that did not beat a single tournament team in the regular season? Or, do you spend your week preparing for a UMass team that beat seven? If you are tOSU, do you spend your week preparing for a Dayton team that is, all things considered, better than decent? Or, do you prepare for a Syracuse team that possesses some of the best talent, and one of the best coaches, in the nation? Further, if you are Syracuse, do you spend your time preparing for a Western Michigan team, whose only win against a tourney team came in their first game of the season, the Dayton team mentioned above, or an Ohio State team that has wins against Wisconsin and Michigan State on their resume?
An asymmetry exists, in my opinion, in who the opponents are preparing for and gameplanning against. I would argue that Dayton spent the week preparing for tOSU and adding interesting wrinkles to their game, to give them an advantage against a much more talented team. I would argue that NDSU spent the week preparing for Duke in the same way.
In the same vein, I would argue that these wrinkles are supposed to function to, if correctly executed, provide an advantage against teams with similarly better talent levels. Thus, if they work, when executed, against tOSU, they will work, when executed, against 'Cuse. tOSU, however, does not prepare, in the same manner, to specifically exploit Dayton; they focus on 'Cuse and believe that their talent and athleticism will mostly do the work against a Dayton squad. 'Cuse, by the time they realize they are no longer set to play tOSU, has only a day to adjust and try to gameplan against the wrinkles Dayton has put in place. Thus, for the most part, they too must rely on their athleticism and talent to do the work: the same athleticism and talent that Dayton has gameplanned to exploit.
I think this is the major reason for large upsets in the tournament. Further, I think the play-in games merely compound the problem. UMass could not really gameplan against a specific team until Thursday morning; they had to play that team Friday. SLU had to balance gameplanning against both Xavier and NC-State...and, although SLU won, if the Wolfpack could have hit a free throw, SLU would have lost by 15.
I think it is this aspect which makes the first two rounds so exciting, and leaves good teams so vulnerable to upsets.
But, again, I have no specific evidence for how these coaches do actually prepare. Just speculation.
That said, I am optimistic with regard to KU today. KU easily handled New Mexico in December. The staff did not need extra days to focus on UNM. They probably did not think they needed to focus on EKU (and, that was shown by their poor performance against EKU). Thus, I think they may have spent extra time looking at and preparing for Stanford. I sure as heck hope they did.
On a certain Sunday evening each March, the tournament bracket is finalized and announced. Each team has three to four days (this includes travel days) to prepare for their first round opponent. If they happen to win in the first round, they have one day to prepare for their second round opponent. If you happen to be a better than decent team, you will most likely be paired against a team that is not even in the Top 50 of the RPI (maybe not even in the Top 100), in the first round; but, almost certainly, you will be paired with a Top 50 (most likely Top 30) team in the second round. Knowing this, what team do you spend the majority of your time preparing for?
I would argue that it is human nature to prepare more thoroughly for more difficult tasks. If you are Duke, do you spend your week preparing for a Mercer team that did not beat a single tournament team in the regular season? Or, do you spend your week preparing for a UMass team that beat seven? If you are tOSU, do you spend your week preparing for a Dayton team that is, all things considered, better than decent? Or, do you prepare for a Syracuse team that possesses some of the best talent, and one of the best coaches, in the nation? Further, if you are Syracuse, do you spend your time preparing for a Western Michigan team, whose only win against a tourney team came in their first game of the season, the Dayton team mentioned above, or an Ohio State team that has wins against Wisconsin and Michigan State on their resume?
An asymmetry exists, in my opinion, in who the opponents are preparing for and gameplanning against. I would argue that Dayton spent the week preparing for tOSU and adding interesting wrinkles to their game, to give them an advantage against a much more talented team. I would argue that NDSU spent the week preparing for Duke in the same way.
In the same vein, I would argue that these wrinkles are supposed to function to, if correctly executed, provide an advantage against teams with similarly better talent levels. Thus, if they work, when executed, against tOSU, they will work, when executed, against 'Cuse. tOSU, however, does not prepare, in the same manner, to specifically exploit Dayton; they focus on 'Cuse and believe that their talent and athleticism will mostly do the work against a Dayton squad. 'Cuse, by the time they realize they are no longer set to play tOSU, has only a day to adjust and try to gameplan against the wrinkles Dayton has put in place. Thus, for the most part, they too must rely on their athleticism and talent to do the work: the same athleticism and talent that Dayton has gameplanned to exploit.
I think this is the major reason for large upsets in the tournament. Further, I think the play-in games merely compound the problem. UMass could not really gameplan against a specific team until Thursday morning; they had to play that team Friday. SLU had to balance gameplanning against both Xavier and NC-State...and, although SLU won, if the Wolfpack could have hit a free throw, SLU would have lost by 15.
I think it is this aspect which makes the first two rounds so exciting, and leaves good teams so vulnerable to upsets.
But, again, I have no specific evidence for how these coaches do actually prepare. Just speculation.
That said, I am optimistic with regard to KU today. KU easily handled New Mexico in December. The staff did not need extra days to focus on UNM. They probably did not think they needed to focus on EKU (and, that was shown by their poor performance against EKU). Thus, I think they may have spent extra time looking at and preparing for Stanford. I sure as heck hope they did.
