Just Another Stars thread

[volinexile17]

Matched Mel Kiper's Big Board for this years NFL draft with each player's star rating by Rivals.

1. Nick Fairley - 3*
2. Da'Quan Bowers - 5*
3. AJ Green - 5*
4. Patrick Peterson - 5*
5. Marcel Dareus - 3*
6. Prince Amukamara - 3*
7. Robert Quinn - 4*
8. Blaine Gabbert - 5*
9. Von Miller - 4*
10. Ryan Kerrigan - 3*
11. Julio Jones - 5*
12. Akeem Ayers - 4*
13. Adrian Clayborn - 4*
14. Cam Newton - 5*
15. J.J. Watt - 2*
16. Drake Nevis - 4*
17. Mark Ingram - 4*
18. Nate Solder - 4*
19. Gabe Carimi - 3*
20. Ryan Mallett - 5*
21. Anthony Castonzo - 2*
22. Mike Pouncey - 4*
23. Cameron Heyward - 4*
24. Jake Locker - 4*
25. Ben Ijalana - NR?

 

[justingroves]

Shows you linemen are hard to evaluate.

 

[Lexvol]

Off topic, but Mallett is the most interesting pick in the draft this year.

 

[WillieGault]

If my statistics professor at UT taught me correctly, we have:

28% 5*
40% 4*
20% 3*
12% Other

 

[FalcoVol]

Off topic, but Mallett is the most interesting pick in the draft this year.

I agree with you, but ESPN will think it's Cam Newton. We'll be thoroughly educated about his pro-potential by draft day.

 

[volinexile17]

Shows you linemen are hard to evaluate.

Or that evaluators get caught up with skill position players because they touch the ball the most.

 

[TheVolunteer]

Off topic, but Mallett is the most interesting pick in the draft this year.

Mallett's problem is his decision making. He has an NFL arm, but his accuracy needs work and he tends to make bad decisions in critical situations(INT's against Bama and OSU).

 

[volwarrior33]

This validates star rankings quite a bit.
Seven five stars out of roughly 30 in each class=23 percent success rate
Ten four stars out of roughly 250 in each class=4 percent success rate
Five three stars out of roughly 750 in each class=.07 percent success rate

 

[volinexile17]

This validates star rankings quite a bit.
Seven five stars out of roughly 30 in each class=23 percent success rate
Ten four stars out of roughly 250 in each class=4 percent success rate
Five three stars out of roughly 750 in each class=.07 percent success rate

I think it's fair to say this is evidence there is merit to the star system.

However, it doesn't correlate quite that neatly. I used both Fairley and Newton's JUCO grade, so evaluators would have had a year or two more of film to look at and they were more developed physically and technically at that point. Also, not everyone in the first round, obviously, is from the same recruiting class.

I think further support for the star is system is that every single 5* is leaving early. Which means that Rivals has done a good job of identifying the kids who really were elite.

 

[Vols188]

Titans are 8th pick

looks like we'll be meeting the Tiger Gabbert

 

[BigOrangeD]

Looks like a Checkmate for the Stargazers. Sorry Non-Stargazers.:cray:

 

[TheVolunteer]

Titans are 8th pick

looks like we'll be meeting the Tiger Gabbert

Blaine Gabbert should be an excellent pick for the Titans. Best available QB in draft. With Fisher's guidance, I can see him doing well with the Titans. Should be much more successful than Young!

 

[OrangeSummit]

thats why i don't put much value in the stars system. there is no such thing as a "sure thing"

 

[I4Jay]

thats why i don't put much value in the stars system. there is no such thing as a "sure thing"

as a whole, there are way more 2 & 3* prospects than there are 4*s & 5*s. keeping that in mind, the higher percentage of 4 & 5 stars as the top prospects makes the star system credible.

 

[StoVol]

32 first round picks.... equals 21.8% if seven are five stars from the same class... there used to be more 5 stars so they should flush thru the system in a year or so... now the diminished number of five stars will likely point to an increase in 3 and 4 star first rounders

 

[volinexile17]

I don't know if Rivals said they're going to start grading out less guys as 5 stars, but here's the breakdown since 2005.

2005: 28 5* players. 6 first round draft picks, 1 second rounder.
2006: 28 5* players. 7 first rounders, 3 second rounders.
2007: 29 5* players. 3 first rounders, 3 second rounders.
2008: 30 5* players. 5 potential first rounders this year. Other standouts include Will Hill, Terelle Pryor, Dayne Crist, and Malcolm Floyd.
2009: 33 5* players. Notable players include DJ Fluker, Matt Barkley, Trent Richardson, Jelani Jenkins, Dre' Kirkpatrick, and Janzen Jackson.
2010: 26 5* players. Too early to tell.
2011: Currently at 16 5* with another round of updates to come out. I don't follow the bumps in stars closely, but I bet a number of guys will get their fifth star. Crowell, O'Leary, Driskell, Westerman, Hart, A. Johnson, and Landry are a couple guys that come to mind.

 

[sjt18]

They do a good job of giving high rankings to guys who have NFL potential. They do a poor job if you expect them to find them all.