Ken Pom: Opponent 3pt% out of a team's control

[golfballs]

the kenpom.com blog

Can someone explain to me how these charts illustrate his point?

Logic would dictate that some teams are better at defending the 3 point shot. His chart just indicates that teams have good and bad 3pt nights, but there's no connection here with those teams (and likewise, teams that are poor at defending the 3)

 

[golfballs]

here's a later post that clarifies it some
the kenpom.com blog

I still don't think this is a good model to make his point.

 

[Shaun1985]

It's kind of dumb TBH. He's basically saying exactly what you posted. But you look at it overall, it probably looks that way. A lot less teams are better defending the 3 then others but when you break down the season into two like that, those good defensive teams are rare enough to not really make a splash. An individual graph with good defense would show that (ex: Kentucky)

 

[golfballs]

It's kind of dumb TBH. He's basically saying exactly what you posted. But you look at it overall, it probably looks that way. A lot less teams are better defending the 3 then others but when you break down the season into two like that, those good defensive teams are rare enough to not really make a splash. An individual graph with good defense would show that (ex: Kentucky)

I think you're right. Considering there are 341 conference teams, the top few that are good at defending the three, or especially good at shooting the three, don't make a big enough difference in the chart.

Good for a generalization, but he tried to put this in terms of play in the NCAA tournament. I think you would have to redraw the chart with teams playing in the dance. It could be that there starts to be some correlation when you narrow it down to the top teams in the nation.