KY Derby

#2
#2
I like Friesan Fire right now.
This should be a good derby. There are no super horses like in years past so the money should be good and there should be some value on the board.
 
#3
#3
How long before a thread nazi states something bad about this..... I love the derby though.
 
#6
#6
Going to take some serious doping out the races to pick a winner of this one. That said, the horse that won the Wood, after that start, deserves some consideration.
 
#7
#7
lawgator1 said:
Going to take some serious doping out the races to pick a winner of this one. That said, the horse that won the Wood, after that start, deserves some consideration.
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It's been a while since the Derby has been this open. I think the best 3 year old isnt even running this year. They put Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks instead. I think she is a great filly and is the best horse I've seen this year. But due to what happened with 8Belles last year the owners wont run her. I think it's a big mistake.
 
#8
#8
VolBeef88 said:
It's been a while since the Derby has been this open. I think the best 3 year old isnt even running this year. They put Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks instead. I think she is a great filly and is the best horse I've seen this year. But due to what happened with 8Belles last year the owners wont run her. I think it's a big mistake.
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I haven't been following things at all this year. Can't even name more than a couple of the entries and certainly don't know of this filly. But I'll say this -- in horse racing, like basketball, sex matters.

Sorry, but in my limited observations, once you get past crap claimers, fillies and mares rarely compete with the boys.
 
#9
#9
lawgator1 said:
I haven't been following things at all this year. Can't even name more than a couple of the entries and certainly don't know of this filly. But I'll say this -- in horse racing, like basketball, sex matters.

Sorry, but in my limited observations, once you get past crap claimers, fillies and mares rarely compete with the boys.
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I agree in general. But there are exceptions and this filly is one of those exceptions. Her times are really good and she has yet to even be called on.
Typically I bet on horses and leave filly's alone but with Rachel Alexandra I would put some coin on her against this field. She is a lot better than 8 Belles. She is a really big stout filly and has the bone to handle running with the boys.
 
#13
#13
Where is hatvol? He usually picks a horse. (Though I've learned my lesson with his picks and use his choices more as part of the process of elimination).
 
#14
#14
Agreed that it is wide open and maybe one of the best all around fields for the derby in years! I will be missing the event in person for the first time in a number of years! I don't pick anyone till the starting postion is established. In a 20 horse race the gate does matter!
 
#15
#15
Soda said:
Agreed that it is wide open and maybe one of the best all around fields for the derby in years! I will be missing the event in person for the first time in a number of years! I don't pick anyone till the starting postion is established. In a 20 horse race the gate does matter!
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The gate does matter some but I dont put that much into it. Big Brown showed last year that if you have the horse it doesnt really matter that much. But I do take it into account a little.
 
#16
#16
If Dunkirk runs to his pedigree, it will not be close. If he doesn't, I Want Revenge is probably the most accomplished of an average group.
 
#17
#17
hatvol96 said:
If Dunkirk runs to his pedigree, it will not be close. If he doesn't, I Want Revenge is probably the most accomplished of an average group.
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It's still early and I liek to see how the horses respond to all the hoopla around this race. Revenge and Dunkirk are both pretty good horses. Friesan Fire has worked really well since getting to churchill and Larry Jones is about as hot a trainer going right now.
It is a shame they arent running the Filly Rachel Alexandra. Too me she is by far the best 3 year old this year. But they are running her in the Oaks instead. If she holds serve and runs like she has been I would not be surprised to see her in the Preakness.
 
#18
#18
I spent an entire day at Churchill Downs last month. It was a great place to be, I hope to be going to a Derby soon.
 
#19
#19
TennesseeFan07 said:
I spent an entire day at Churchill Downs last month. It was a great place to be, I hope to be going to a Derby soon.
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It is a really cool place and I do recomend the derby to anyone who can make it. The museum on site is really nice and they have several get togethers there during Derby week.
 
#21
#21
VolBeef88 said:
It is a really cool place and I do recomend the derby to anyone who can make it. The museum on site is really nice and they have several get togethers there during Derby week.
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We took the time to visit all the museums and the tours. It was really fun to go out and walk around the track. We ventured up to where the celebrities stay up at the top. It was a great view.
 
#22
#22
lawgator1 said:
Okay, so eliminate Dunkirk and I Want Revenge. Got it!

:eek:k:
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I know you are just busting on hate but those are 2 horses that you should think about having somewhere on you ticket. I will watch and see how they are handling workouts, all the hoopla, the weather and their post position.

I'm liking Friesan Fire more and more. But with a field of 20 horses it is often that the best horse doesnt win. I wish they would shrink the field to 16 at the most. 20 horses are just to many and often horses are boxed in etc.
 
#23
#23
VolBeef88 said:
I know you are just busting on hate but those are 2 horses that you should think about having somewhere on you ticket. I will watch and see how they are handling workouts, all the hoopla, the weather and their post position.

I'm liking Friesan Fire more and more. But with a field of 20 horses it is often that the best horse doesnt win. I wish they would shrink the field to 16 at the most. 20 horses are just to many and often horses are boxed in etc.
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Oh, I know, just giving him some crapola. Doubt he even notices.

Your comment about the "best horse" is itneresting because it does seem like the horse winning the Derby usually goes on to perform well in the Preakness or the Belmont. I think its less a question of the "best horse" not winning as much as it is the handicapping of lightly raced 3 year olds who often go from 6 and 7 horse fields to 20. So many factors, you just don;t know going into it who is really the best horse.

I will say that anyone who bets the favorites in this race, from a purely statistical point of view, is an idiot. If you take any siginficant sample of this race over the last 20, 30, or more years, betting the favorite is a losing proposition (more than usual).
 
#24
#24
lawgator1 said:
Oh, I know, just giving him some crapola. Doubt he even notices.

Your comment about the "best horse" is itneresting because it does seem like the horse winning the Derby usually goes on to perform well in the Preakness or the Belmont. I think its less a question of the "best horse" not winning as much as it is the handicapping of lightly raced 3 year olds who often go from 6 and 7 horse fields to 20. So many factors, you just don;t know going into it who is really the best horse.

I will say that anyone who bets the favorites in this race, from a purely statistical point of view, is an idiot. If you take any siginficant sample of this race over the last 20, 30, or more years, betting the favorite is a losing proposition (more than usual).
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There are no bad horses in the KY derby. There are just some who are better than others. But you would be surprised at just how many derby winners never make horse of the year or go on to win the Breeders cup etc. Also you have to take into account that most horses that dont win the derby dont run the other 2 Triple Crown races.
 
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