Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#62,751
#62,751
allvol123 said:
Does the CDC not have buy in from medical community to create consistent measuring standards? How can consistent definable measuring be so poorly executed?
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We seem to have a very weak national public health voice at this point. The CDC must be quite neutered or underprepared.

In their defense, this hasn't been something that we have really tried to do before.

But, some states report only cumulative hospitalizations. Others only report current census. Some both. Also, you can look at the data and see there are issues at times where they aren't getting updated properly, then they'll do a big data dump.
 
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#62,752
#62,752
I forgot the FL is one of those states that doesn't report current census when I posted above, so the hospitalizations plot I posted was useless and I didn't catch it. Here is the other version I track, which is helpful for Florida. You can really see the effect of increased case detection / younger affected population in the new hospitalizations / new case metric (notice how its dropping)

1594049950661.png
 
#62,753
#62,753
evillawyer said:
Latest numbers out of Florida. There's a chart in there on daily deaths. They are slowing rising ... and remember the people dying today got it BEFORE the big recent surge (you can see that by comparing where the positives were at a few week ago).

Coronavirus cases in Florida top 200,000; daily death toll 14 in Pinellas
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Even that info can’t be trusted bc they list every single death as covid that has a had a positive test.... where I am located at..... people are testing positive for covid for up to and possibly beyond 4 months without any symptoms at all..... facilities/hospitals are financially rewarded for counting the deaths/hospitalizations as covid no matter the actual reasons for either one..... Here I have seen multiple deaths that had nothing to do with the virus counted as covid.... heck we have pretty much cured copd deaths here in the region I work. I don’t care if it’s good news or bad news...... I just want the truth so I can make adequate decisions for me and my family.
 
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#62,754
#62,754
TennTradition said:
We seem to have a very weak national public health voice at this point. The CDC must be quite neutered or underprepared.

In their defense, this hasn't been something that we have really tried to do before.

But, some states report only cumulative hospitalizations. Others only report current census. Some both. Also, you can look at the data and see there are issues at times where they aren't getting updated properly, then they'll do a big data dump.
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Not the cdc but the local media reports hospitalizations daily...... different % of hospitals report each day to them..... on the days when over 90% report..... the headline reads..... huge spike in hospitalizations even though it’s just a higher number giving them numbers.... it drives me crazy
 
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#62,755
#62,755
lawgator1 said:
Question re Florida, and then a point.

Where are you getting your data on hospitalizations or ICU admissions? This has been clouded in mystery a bit here, with the Governor basically refusing to release the numbers. So I am curious where those come from and would like to know their reliability.

Anecdotally, a friend's sister is an RN in a unit dealing with this. Have not spoken to her in a bit, but three weeks ago they had ten Co-vid patients in ICU. A week late,r they had 81. Outlier? Maybe. But without consistent and reliable data too much is left to speculation.

And now a point: It would seem like the confirmed case count, the ICU admissions, and the deaths, are going to leap up here in about a week to ten days, given the way people conducted themselves this weekend. Its not just the 20-somethings partying at the lake. Its their parents. And it will cascade on through the weaker segments of the population such that the bad outcome numbers really skyrocket in about three weeks.
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This seems to be what all the Clay Travis types are missing. Even if it's now disproportionately hitting younger people, those people, while they likely won't die, will pass it on to those who are a bit older, who will pass it on to those who are older still, etc. It will work it's way up the various age groups.
 
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#62,758
#62,758
TennTradition said:
What we experienced in late March and April is going to skew our perspective of this virus. It hit our most populated region of the country at a time when they were still spending large amounts of time indoors due to weather. We didn't know much at all about the virus and it showed as we desperately sought for something that would improve outcomes.

So, now we find ourselves in a tale of different regions. And, that is causing back and forth "discussions" over "real" vs. "fake news", etc. However, to me the data are fairly clear. The hardest hit regions - either due to their continued strict(er) measures or effects of a falling susceptible community (approaching herd immunity) - continue to see no case growth (despite high testing) and have hospitalizations/death curves that show no signs of growth so far.

For example, here is New York:

View attachment 290918


In contrast, you have regions of the country where the virus didn't strike that much at all. Most of these places have opened up widely and have higher susceptible populations - but also generally have lower population density where even with a spreading virus, case growth will just be slower.

To my eyes, we are in an actual non-media-generated outbreak in these regions. We are seeing more that just case growth in my opinion - it is actual infection growth. And with that I believe we will see increased deaths. This, however, is where our perspective skews us. Some, not seeing deaths on the order of 200-500/day in hotspot states might feel its panic over nothing because we are no where near where we were in March/April. With lower population densities - these states would likely not reach peaks like that. Others, seeing rising case counts and hospital census, might fear we are heading for another March/April and want to shut things down before we get there. And this is largely where it seems two sides talk past each other. One often downplays the cases and deaths because they know that the other might (over)react and shut things down prematurely, which they feel is unnecessary. And then the other camp feels like their alternate side is blind to data and is re-open at all cost.

But, right now, I think the truth is in between. I also think there are a number of people here who appreciate that. Infections are rising in these places and I believe rising deaths will follow (I will post some plots below that to me show we are seeing that). However, due to better treatment and lower population densities, that doesn't mean you are necessarily heading straight into another NY, NJ, MA, etc. I still remain in the watchful eye camp. Maybe I'm over-estimating the benefit of treatment/population density. Maybe I'm wrong on severity. But, as you can see from the numbers in the charts below - despite seeing 30-100% increases in deaths/day across these states since the middle of June, the numbers are still quite manageable. Key question is can it be sustained - or do we accelerate past that point?

View attachment 290922

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I'll also show GA because of all the grief they got, but they're doing well.....and Tennessee for obvious reasons of interest.

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Those are some crazy charts. Obviously someone is jacking with the Florida one. At least the data behind it.

And at least anecdotally the GA fits what I am seeing. I hear more about hospitalization but not deaths.

And even though the hospitalization is up the percentage, at least in Atlanta which I think is the worst case, is down per confirmed cases.
 
#62,759
#62,759
LouderVol said:
Those are some crazy charts. Obviously someone is jacking with the Florida one. At least the data behind it.

And at least anecdotally the GA fits what I am seeing. I hear more about hospitalization but not deaths.

And even though the hospitalization is up the percentage, at least in Atlanta which I think is the worst case, is down per confirmed cases.
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I posted some better Florida charts later I forgot they didn't routinely report current hospitalizations, so that plot was jacked. The subsequent charts better describe the situation.
 
#62,761
#62,761
K-town Vol Fan said:
Which is why we need to do what we can to limit the spread. A lot of people in this board think "I don't care if I get it I'll be fine in a few days" well, that may not actually be the case and IF you DO get it you'll most likely spread it to someone and that might not be the case for them either.
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by that logic then we should just stop all means of life, people have similar complications from the Flu/ Pneumonia
 
#62,764
#62,764
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#62,770
#62,770
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#62,771
#62,771
McDad said:
At McRib's hospital, the Geri/Psyche had an outbreak 2 weeks ago. Staff and patients effected. Staff got lax on vigilance but not known if pt or staff was ground zero.
They are managing it well. No deaths nor serious illnesses noted.
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That's tough work right there...kudos to McRib. Glad they are managing.
 
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#62,773
#62,773
TennTradition said:
Data Source:
All of this data is generated using the COVID Tracking Project database. It is a widely used source that is assembled by The Atlantic. They pull from multiple different outlets/jurisdictions: cities, states, hospitals, etc. They occasionally have to clean it up as states or cities change how/when they report to avoid overcounting or undercounting. But, in general, other than this I haven't seen anyone throwing large stones at the data.

Hospitalization Data:
As I replied to McDad a few posts up, hospitalization data is very tricky. For the states that allow for it, I also plot new hospitalizations/day. But not all states report cumulative hospitalizations that allow for that calculation. Also you have reclassification - where someone is asymptomatic and occupying a normal bed but is COVID because they broke their leg while they have COVID. I get it. But if those numbers exceed 10% of the COVID census it sure would be nice to have a way to remove them.

Florida:
I think that I can add a plot for ICUs, which I haven't done in the past. If I see anything interesting there I'll post it.
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I think it's been a problem in the past with certain states not even qualifying for flu tracking because they don't offer their data up. I wonder if that's still the case or if it's been made mandatory with compliance laws.
 
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