I actually think the CFB playoff people have been very fair. They made us #1 based on our record even though most analysts and models had our chances of beating Georgia in Athens at like 20%.
It was the right call I think since Georgia had only really beaten Oregon in the first game of the season and had been somewhat unprepared against a couple of weaker opponents until they had to take them seriously, which to their credit they were able to find what it took to win anyway.
Do we probably beat TCU on any given Saturday? Yeah, I think so, but they are still undefeated and have won a bunch of games that they weren’t expected to win, so it’s reasonable to give them the same sort of benefit until someone beats them. We may all think that we or any number of teams could do it, but so far predictions about their demise have repeatedly proven premature. So I’m ok with them being ahead of us.
Ohio State and Michigan similarly haven’t messed up yet, and while they haven’t had as many tough games as TCU or ourselves, they are generally considered fairly strong and furthermore we know one of them is going to lose a game by necessity.
All of this is to say that I think giving us #1 was logical and fair, and dropping us to #5 makes a lot of sense for too if similar logic is applied to the other unbeatens. If any unfairness is going to exist, it hasn’t happened yet, and will only emerge at the end of the regular season and probably after conference championships.
Many people are assuming they know how they will handle a 1 loss USC with a conference championship, or a 2 loss LSU with one, or a TCU that stays undefeated and wins. Before Oregon lost a game similar beliefs were felt about it. Some likewise think a 1 loss Michigan or Ohio State be given preference.
These assumptions may prove to be true, but they also may not. For one thing those teams all have games left to play, and are not guaranteed to win them, conference championships included.
We can’t control how any of those games play out, and we can’t control what the committee ends up doing in the future. Assuming they are going to do us some injustice is a waste of time.
Our own team also still has a couple of games that to handle before they are even in a position to have an injustice done. I think those games are gonna be wins of course, but stressing out at this point over things we can’t influence is just that: stress.
As fans that’s ok to have for sure, but just the sheer number of conversations going on about how things are going to play out when so many variables are still in play just seems crazy to me at this point.
This is what I think are for sure:
1. We still have 2 conference games to win before we can be robbed.
2. Michigan or Ohio State will have at least one loss between them at the end of the regular season.
3. TCU does not have an easy path to going undefeated in the regular season, much less in a championship game.
4. The PAC-12 hope probably rests on USC now that Oregon is a 2 loss team, and they have to win their games too.
5. LSU is going to have to finish perfect, which includes beating Georgia to even be debatable by the committee.
6. We have been given a lot of positive media by basically everyone this year, and people like Tennessee right now. Our games are exciting.
Here is what I think we can only really guess (assuming we win out):
1. How the committee compares us to a 1 loss USC conference champ.
2. How the committee compares us to a 2 loss LSU that wins the SEC.
3. How the committee handles an OSU that loses to Michigan.
4. How the committee handles a Michigan that loses to OSU but in a hard fought game.
5. How the committee handles a TCU that pulls off the miraculous and ends undefeated.
That last one seems less a guess than others, but it’s still not for sure. There have been teams in the past go undefeated and not get the bid. Actually, didn’t that happen to UCF? I think TCU gets in almost surely if they do it, since they are ahead of us right now, but it would not out of the question for the committee to change their mind and put us in over them in the end.
In that case, who is the committee really being unfair to? If they win out and do get in I think it’s fair to give them the nod, but they could actually do that and not get in.. being robbed by us. Sure we play in the meat grinder that is the SEC but teams can only win the games they play, regardless of how strong the opposition is.
It’s reasonable to believe a weaker conference opponent who wins out would probably lose to us, but even though it might be probably true, it’s just unprovable analysis until the game is actually played. We were supposed to lose to some teams that we’ve beaten earlier in the season and others were supposed to be more challenging for us than they ended up.
We were able to show those earlier predictions wrong because we got to play those opponents. In some alternate universe where we are in another conference people might still be saying we would lose to SEC teams we beat in the current real universe and we would have no way to prove them wrong even if we were just as strong but only had played weaker opposition.
That’s why even though chances are USC or TCU isn’t as strong, the committee has to weigh that against the fact that they still might end up having a better numerical record and possible conference title, and maybe should be given a chance to see how good they actually are.
