VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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"Vegas always win."
As a grand scheme, true. But in a specific football game, that can be wrong. Vegas can lose, if they get the initial spread badly off.
Ok, bear with me, just a little math. I'll keep it as simple as I can.
Say Vegas sets the line of a game at Vols -5.5. And say 100,000 people bet on the game. And they each bet $1,000. And for simplicity sake, let's say the vig is 10%.
A whole range of things could happen; let's consider two extreme states:
1. In a classic spread, half the bettors lay money on each side of the line. All 100,000 pay in $1,000 + $100 vig, or $1,100, so total $110M paid in. After the game, half of them win their bet and get their $1,000 back plus $1,000 payout, so $2,000 for 50,000 of them. That's $100M back to the betting community. So Vegas nets $110M in minus $100M out: or $10M. Vegas wins, purely because of the vig.
2. In an extreme, all 100,000 take the Vols to cover. And they're all right. So they all paid $1,000 + $100 vig, or $1,100, and all won back their $1,000+$1,000. That's 100,000 people putting $1,100 in and getting $2,000 back. Net $900 pocketed by 100,000 people. Vegas loses $90M.
What happened this week is probably a lot closer to (2) than it is to (1).
So it's not true that Vegas always wins. And that's why they get really pissed off at the statisticians in their back offices when they blow it as badly as Vegas blew this opening line.
Because you just know they lost a lot on this game.
Go Vols!
As a grand scheme, true. But in a specific football game, that can be wrong. Vegas can lose, if they get the initial spread badly off.
Ok, bear with me, just a little math. I'll keep it as simple as I can.
Say Vegas sets the line of a game at Vols -5.5. And say 100,000 people bet on the game. And they each bet $1,000. And for simplicity sake, let's say the vig is 10%.
A whole range of things could happen; let's consider two extreme states:
1. In a classic spread, half the bettors lay money on each side of the line. All 100,000 pay in $1,000 + $100 vig, or $1,100, so total $110M paid in. After the game, half of them win their bet and get their $1,000 back plus $1,000 payout, so $2,000 for 50,000 of them. That's $100M back to the betting community. So Vegas nets $110M in minus $100M out: or $10M. Vegas wins, purely because of the vig.
2. In an extreme, all 100,000 take the Vols to cover. And they're all right. So they all paid $1,000 + $100 vig, or $1,100, and all won back their $1,000+$1,000. That's 100,000 people putting $1,100 in and getting $2,000 back. Net $900 pocketed by 100,000 people. Vegas loses $90M.
What happened this week is probably a lot closer to (2) than it is to (1).
So it's not true that Vegas always wins. And that's why they get really pissed off at the statisticians in their back offices when they blow it as badly as Vegas blew this opening line.
Because you just know they lost a lot on this game.
Go Vols!
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