First, I think this is a very good match-up for the Vols for a few reasons:
a. VCU doesn't play slow-ball like Mizzou State. Fans should understand that turnovers in half-court don't equate to turnovers against pressure and also that charges are counted as turnovers. Tobias' turnovers against Belmont and MSt included at least 3 or 4 charges. Also, with Goins' injury, Golden got thrown into the fire at the end of the Belmont game. "But he didn't have that many turnovers." True, but when you are protecting a young PG, you tend to ask other, less steady ball handlers to carry more of the load. Melvin will be ready to go against VCU.
b. VCU lives by the three point shot. UT was a very good 3 point defensive team last season and has been so far this season.
c. VCU is not strong in the post. Fatigue and fouls will change the complexion of the game in the 2nd half.
d. Length. VCU is not tall. In fact, Melvin will get to finally see a PG that he can look in the eye. Our length should cause VCU some problems.
Second, VCU is not deep. I know some VCU posters claim in another thread that they are deep, but deep doesn't mean you have 13 scholarship players. VCU primarily plays 7 -- the 8th guy off the bench averages 8.3 mpg and the 9th guy averages 7. When I say depth, I mean you can put a guy in that isn't a huge drop-off in talent. You have to go all the way to our 10th guy, Kenny Hall, to find a player in the regular rotation below 10 minutes and that is because he was on the scout team after an injury.
Third, More on the VCU is not big point. They go 5'10, 6'2, 6'5, 6'8, and 6'9. Their first three subs are 6'4, 6'3, and 6'3. Their fourth guy is 6'3. They can go to a couple of true freshmen in the low post -- one is 6'10 and the other 6'11, but they are in trouble. Between them, the two have averaged about 5 mpg and amassed 2 points and 5 rebounds in three games.
Fourth, although VCU is a mid-major, they lose some of the focus advantage because this is in the Garden. While VCU gets out of sight pumped to play a horrible Wake Forest team, the Vols have to manufacture pump to get focused for teams like Belmont and Mizzou State. VCU beating a named team like Wake (as bad as they are this season) and playing in the Semis of the NIT in the Garden -- homecoming for Tobias and Brian -- is going to somewhat lessen VCU's motivation advantage. Melvin will also likely be super motivated because VCU's best player is going to be his man.
I think this game is competitive, but not for much longer than a half. I think VCU is going to see foul trouble in the post -- whoever are guarding Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris are going to have their hands full. They will likely get into foul trouble and then VCU's coach has a decision. Either put a 6'4 guy on Tobias or bring a true freshman big off the bench and face an even worse mismatch. Expect a smaller line-up and a lot of zone from VCU if low post foul trouble rears its head. But in that case, the rebounding advantage might get out of control.
None of this means I think UT blows VCU out in the 2nd half. Having watched Pearl's teams for a long time, he has a method. He plays well-paced BB. We will have on the floor at times against VCU Golden, McBee, Fields, Pearl, and Woolridge. He's going to sit his best players in the first half while VCU is still playing its top 3-5 guys for most of the half. It will mean things are close for much longer than fans like, but in the end, there will be some tired legs on the VCU team. This is called being "deep". VCU has 4 guys averaging more than 26 mpg (2 more than 30). UT has 1 (Tobias at 27 mpg) and he'd be 4th in minutes played if he were on VCU's team.
Villanova would be a much bigger problem. They are VCU with equal or better talent than the Vols. That spells trouble. :salute:
a. VCU doesn't play slow-ball like Mizzou State. Fans should understand that turnovers in half-court don't equate to turnovers against pressure and also that charges are counted as turnovers. Tobias' turnovers against Belmont and MSt included at least 3 or 4 charges. Also, with Goins' injury, Golden got thrown into the fire at the end of the Belmont game. "But he didn't have that many turnovers." True, but when you are protecting a young PG, you tend to ask other, less steady ball handlers to carry more of the load. Melvin will be ready to go against VCU.
b. VCU lives by the three point shot. UT was a very good 3 point defensive team last season and has been so far this season.
c. VCU is not strong in the post. Fatigue and fouls will change the complexion of the game in the 2nd half.
d. Length. VCU is not tall. In fact, Melvin will get to finally see a PG that he can look in the eye. Our length should cause VCU some problems.
Second, VCU is not deep. I know some VCU posters claim in another thread that they are deep, but deep doesn't mean you have 13 scholarship players. VCU primarily plays 7 -- the 8th guy off the bench averages 8.3 mpg and the 9th guy averages 7. When I say depth, I mean you can put a guy in that isn't a huge drop-off in talent. You have to go all the way to our 10th guy, Kenny Hall, to find a player in the regular rotation below 10 minutes and that is because he was on the scout team after an injury.
Third, More on the VCU is not big point. They go 5'10, 6'2, 6'5, 6'8, and 6'9. Their first three subs are 6'4, 6'3, and 6'3. Their fourth guy is 6'3. They can go to a couple of true freshmen in the low post -- one is 6'10 and the other 6'11, but they are in trouble. Between them, the two have averaged about 5 mpg and amassed 2 points and 5 rebounds in three games.
Fourth, although VCU is a mid-major, they lose some of the focus advantage because this is in the Garden. While VCU gets out of sight pumped to play a horrible Wake Forest team, the Vols have to manufacture pump to get focused for teams like Belmont and Mizzou State. VCU beating a named team like Wake (as bad as they are this season) and playing in the Semis of the NIT in the Garden -- homecoming for Tobias and Brian -- is going to somewhat lessen VCU's motivation advantage. Melvin will also likely be super motivated because VCU's best player is going to be his man.
I think this game is competitive, but not for much longer than a half. I think VCU is going to see foul trouble in the post -- whoever are guarding Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris are going to have their hands full. They will likely get into foul trouble and then VCU's coach has a decision. Either put a 6'4 guy on Tobias or bring a true freshman big off the bench and face an even worse mismatch. Expect a smaller line-up and a lot of zone from VCU if low post foul trouble rears its head. But in that case, the rebounding advantage might get out of control.
None of this means I think UT blows VCU out in the 2nd half. Having watched Pearl's teams for a long time, he has a method. He plays well-paced BB. We will have on the floor at times against VCU Golden, McBee, Fields, Pearl, and Woolridge. He's going to sit his best players in the first half while VCU is still playing its top 3-5 guys for most of the half. It will mean things are close for much longer than fans like, but in the end, there will be some tired legs on the VCU team. This is called being "deep". VCU has 4 guys averaging more than 26 mpg (2 more than 30). UT has 1 (Tobias at 27 mpg) and he'd be 4th in minutes played if he were on VCU's team.
Villanova would be a much bigger problem. They are VCU with equal or better talent than the Vols. That spells trouble. :salute:
k:
