Lunardi Bracket Update - 2/13

[VolCalls]

Lunardi just appeared live at halftime of the Memphis-USF game to give his updated Top 4 seeds in each region. Has the Vols #2 in the East Region with Duke as the 1, Arizona the 3, and Michigan the 4. Florida is currently the final #1 seed and going West.

He also thinks Alabama will beat Auburn on Saturday to become the overall #1 seed going into next week. I agree with him and think the Tide will win convincingly this weekend.

Also interesting that St. John’s is not in his top 16 at the moment.

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

Lunardi just appeared live at halftime of the Memphis-USF game to give his updated Top 4 seeds in each region. Has the Vols #2 in the East Region with Duke as the 1, Arizona the 3, and Michigan the 4. Florida is currently the final #1 seed and going West.

He also thinks Alabama will beat Auburn on Saturday to become the overall #1 seed going into next week. I agree with him and think the Tide will win convincingly this weekend.

Also interesting that St. John’s is not in his top 16 at the moment.

Things will most likely change, but I would take that in a heartbeat

 

[ABtheVolsfan92]

It's very simple we can not lose saturday, lose that and the season could spiral

 

[Tnphil]

Coming off the KY cluster and being a payback game I think we'll beat Vandy pretty good.

 

[Go47]

I think at best we end up a 2 seed and at worst a 4 seed. But I expect a 2 seed to be where we land.

 

[esarmstrong]

Lunardi has parlayed unprovable guessing and speculation into his own personal cash cow. I don't care what Lunardi says. The only bracket that counts is the one in March.

 

[Anti-shunshinepumper]

Lunardi just appeared live at halftime of the Memphis-USF game to give his updated Top 4 seeds in each region. Has the Vols #2 in the East Region with Duke as the 1, Arizona the 3, and Michigan the 4. Florida is currently the final #1 seed and going West.

He also thinks Alabama will beat Auburn on Saturday to become the overall #1 seed going into next week. I agree with him and think the Tide will win convincingly this weekend.

Also interesting that St. John’s is not in his top 16 at the moment.

I think he was basing it off this. Things most definitely could change. For example, I don't think Kentucky ends up a 3. Most likely a 4 or even a 5 if they lose to Texas, LSU, or South Carolina.
I don't think they beat Alabama, Auburn, or Missouri. Six SEC locks, tho. I think there will be at least 6 more in , too.

 

[vol94]

Things will most likely change, but I would take that in a heartbeat

Dukes athleticism doesn’t concern you? Idk anything about them except they ate loaded with 5* talent and their freshman is phenom.

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

Dukes athleticism doesn’t concern you? Idk anything about them except they ate loaded with 5* talent and their freshman is phenom.

Sort of, but I don't think they can handle our defense. It would come down to us making some timely baskets. Not something I am highly confident of, but I know we're more than capable

 

[volsack]

Lunardi has parlayed unprovable guessing and speculation into his own personal cash cow. I don't care what Lunardi says. The only bracket that counts is the one in March.

That doesn't even really matter. Since 2001, only one team has won the tournament and been ranked outside the top 21 in Ken Pom's adjusted offensive effeciency, and that was 2014 UCONN. Tennessee is 37th. You also have to be in the top 31 of adjusted defensive effeciency.

Additionally, Every national champion since 2001 was ranked in the top 25 of adjusted efficiency margin when entering the tournament, and 21 of the 22 were ranked in the top 20; the lone exception was 2014 UConn (ranked 25th).

The teams that are in both the top 21 and 31 with a top 20 adjusted efficiency margin respectively (through February 13, 2025) are:

Auburn
Florida
Duke
Houston
Iowa State
Purdue
Arizonza
Maryland
Illinois

 

[VolCalls]

That doesn't even really matter. Since 2001, only one team has won the tournament and been ranked outside the top 21 in Ken Pom's adjusted offensive effeciency, and that was 2014 UCONN. Tennessee is 37th. You also have to be in the top 31 of adjusted defensive effeciency.

Additionally, Every national champion since 2001 was ranked in the top 25 of adjusted efficiency margin when entering the tournament, and 21 of the 22 were ranked in the top 20; the lone exception was 2014 UConn (ranked 25th).

The teams that are in both the top 21 and 31 with a top 20 adjusted efficiency margin respectively (through February 13, 2025) are:

Auburn
Florida
Duke
Houston
Iowa State
Purdue
Arizonza
Maryland
Illinois

Sure, although 30 teams that made the Final Four during that time were outside the top 21 in offensive efficiency.

I just want to get to a Final Four. After that, anything can happen.

 

[VolCalls]

Lunardi has parlayed unprovable guessing and speculation into his own personal cash cow. I don't care what Lunardi says. The only bracket that counts is the one in March.

I don’t care, either, but he’s the most noted authority on the seeding and bracketing principles used by the Committee, and how things might look if Selection Sunday were today, so it’s fun to keep up.

 

[hUTch2002]

Lunardi just appeared live at halftime of the Memphis-USF game to give his updated Top 4 seeds in each region. Has the Vols #2 in the East Region with Duke as the 1, Arizona the 3, and Michigan the 4. Florida is currently the final #1 seed and going West.

He also thinks Alabama will beat Auburn on Saturday to become the overall #1 seed going into next week. I agree with him and think the Tide will win convincingly this weekend.

Also interesting that St. John’s is not in his top 16 at the moment.

I was just looking at some tournament resumes and it’s shocking to me that the St John’s OOC SOS is better than ours because when I look at the 2 schedules I don’t see it. Both kenpom and ESPN show it though. We definitely have a better OOC schedule as far as tougher games because at Lville and at Illinois are tougher than their 2 toughest games but I guess we had so many really crappy games that it drags us way down, which stinks. We both played Baylor and UVA. Their 2 toughest weren’t road games as they played New Mexico in MSG and Georgia at a neutral site.

 

[hUTch2002]

I think at best we end up a 2 seed and at worst a 4 seed. But I expect a 2 seed to be where we land.

I have a tighter range of 2-3. Outside shot at a 1 but have to be 5-1 or better to close. I just don’t see a 4 unless we completely tank these last 6 games. Even 3-3 likely still lands a 2.

 

[SNAFU]

Dukes athleticism doesn’t concern you? Idk anything about them except they ate loaded with 5* talent and their freshman is phenom.

Duke reminds me a lot of the KY team that had Anthony Davis. I will say that if they don't win it this year, I don't know when the next time that they will win it. Rumor is that Duke's NIL for the team is close to $24 million. Not hard to believe given that they have 5* sitting on the bench.

 

[VolCalls]

I was just looking at some tournament resumes and it’s shocking to me that the St John’s OOC SOS is better than ours because when I look at the 2 schedules I don’t see it. Both kenpom and ESPN show it though. We definitely have a better OOC schedule as far as tougher games because at Lville and at Illinois are tougher than their 2 toughest games but I guess we had so many really crappy games that it drags us way down, which stinks. We both played Baylor and UVA. Their 2 toughest weren’t road games as they played New Mexico in MSG and Georgia at a neutral site.

Yes but as you said, you’re only looking at non-conference. Overall, our SOS is 14 and theirs is 61. No comparison.

 

[lawgator1]

The better gauge imo is the bracketmatrix, which at the moment combines 106 different brackets from all sorts of sources.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

Note that not all brackets are updated at the same time, so there can be some lag.

 

[vol94]

Duke has always recruited 5 stars along with UNC, Kansas, KY, etc.

I personally rather not play them as I don’t trust this roster among timely baskets to offset Duke’s runs. Plus, I despised Duke as a kid from Rke, VA in the 70’s 80’s.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

I think if we win out then we'll get a 1 seed. Go 5-1 and there's a chance, but likely would need to hope the other 3 SEC teams lost a few.

 

[Chaz-Vol]

I think if we win out then we'll get a 1 seed. Go 5-1 and there's a chance, but likely would need to hope the other 3 SEC teams lost a few.

Agree essentially would have to split Ole Miss and TAM at a minimum with some help like bama dropping 3-4 games.

 

[hUTch2002]

Yes but as you said, you’re only looking at non-conference. Overall, our SOS is 14 and theirs is 61. No comparison.

No doubt there. I still don’t get the OOC ranking but it must just be because we have a lot more really lowly ranked teams than they do.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

There are so many cards left to be dealt. We need to play well down the stretch, get better, and hope for a seed that gives us favorable matchups. We’re pretty far away from enough data to have any idea where we’ll sit. UF has Condon hurt, Auburn and Bama knock each other around, and there are non- SEC teams looking in from the outside. A&M away is daunting. Alabama at home is a massive opportunity. If we knock off number one in the country and get to the tournament with two or fewer losses, we can land a great two or possibly a one depending on the circumstances. Two things are true: This year’s SEC is being discussed as the best conference in NCAA history. That’s been repeated so often it’s a talking point. Secondly, Lunardi and others have said that they WILL have to use tournament data this year (at least from the SEC) because the top seed separation will be razor thin. None of it matters now. We just need to finish strong and keep improving.

 

[ABtheVolsfan92]

the biggest thing we can do is avoid bad losses I.E. LSU,SCar, and Vandy.

we lose any of those 3 and a 3 seed becomes likely

 

[Putbacks]

Interesting that we could see 2 conference foes facing off against each other the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

 

[JMSqb11]

Lunardi just appeared live at halftime of the Memphis-USF game to give his updated Top 4 seeds in each region. Has the Vols #2 in the East Region with Duke as the 1, Arizona the 3, and Michigan the 4. Florida is currently the final #1 seed and going West.

He also thinks Alabama will beat Auburn on Saturday to become the overall #1 seed going into next week. I agree with him and think the Tide will win convincingly this weekend.

Also interesting that St. John’s is not in his top 16 at the moment.

Love that....

I would gladly take the 2 seed in the East.