Lunardi on SEC bubble teams

[Oldblood]

Just saw him on ESPN - said that USC was in his final four in and UF was in his final four out. I think USC needs one win in SEC tourney and UF needs two. No mention of Auburn - I still say the only way any of the remaining SEC teams (including Auburn and/or UK) get in is through the auto bid.

 

[lawgator1]

Just saw him on ESPN - said that USC was in his final four in and UF was in his final four out. I think USC needs one win in SEC tourney and UF needs two. No mention of Auburn - I still say the only way any of the remaining SEC teams (including Auburn and/or UK) get in is through the auto bid.

When he says final four out, I think he means his second four out, which is to say he means that Florida is between the 5th and 8th teams down the list on the bubble.

If that is the case, then Florida needs at least two wins, plus probably a little help in the form of the conference tournaments being won by teams already slated to get an at-large bid. In that event, they might squeak in.

If Florida can manage to get to the tournament finals, and barring a lot of conference tourney upsets around the country, they are in decent shape (by no means guaranteed).

Bottom line for Florida is that two wins gives them a shot, three gives them a pretty good shot.

 

[emainvol]

Florida is in his first four out.

 

[Oldblood]

I should have been clearer - emain is right, UF was in his first four out.

 

[Oldblood]

I think that the SEC has three in right now (UT, USC, LSU), with the maximum potential to get 5 in. This would only happen if UF performs well, and one of the teams not in currently (i.e. Auburn or Kentucky) wins the tournament. I think the most likely scenario is still four teams in with the potential for only two if USC and UF really crap the bed in the tourney and we see some upsets elsewhere.

 

[lawgator1]

You know, I've had a real hard time following him ths year, in part because I have found ESPNs page on college basketball to be frustratingly unwieldy. You can't figure out which pieces are part of that "insider" deal, which is annoying, and they keep just listing the writer -- with no date, indication of subject matter, or that "insider" thing. And so you spend time jockeying around trying to find something you a) actually can read without paying for it, that b) isn't five days old, that c) is about anything you care about.

Not to mention that their pages, which are already gummed up by tons of advertising, seem to be running that much slower this year.

 

[ukvols]

I think the Florida-Auburn winner should get in.
I realize that AU did nothing in pre-conference play, but with so many bubble teams falling to bottom teams this week, winning what at that point would be 9/10 by AU would be pretty solid. Auburn's RPI is #64 right now. Yeah, that's not so hot, but it is exactly where UK's was when while they continued to be in on the bubble discussion.

 

[ukvols]

You know, I've had a real hard time following him ths year, in part because I have found ESPNs page on college basketball to be frustratingly unwieldy. You can't figure out which pieces are part of that "insider" deal, which is annoying, and they keep just listing the writer -- with no date, indication of subject matter, or that "insider" thing. And so you spend time jockeying around trying to find something you a) actually can read without paying for it, that b) isn't five days old, that c) is about anything you care about.

Not to mention that their pages, which are already gummed up by tons of advertising, seem to be running that much slower this year.

The guy who writes the Bubble Watch has done a lousy job of keeping it frequently updated.

 

[Oldblood]

I think the Florida-Auburn winner should get in.
I realize that AU did nothing in pre-conference play, but with so many bubble teams falling to bottom teams this week, winning what at that point would be 9/10 by AU would be pretty solid. Auburn's RPI is #64 right now. Yeah, that's not so hot, but it is exactly where UK's was when while they continued to be in on the bubble discussion.

You could be right, but I don't think Auburn should count any chickens without winning the whole thing. They might have a shot with out winning the tournament, but Kentucky definitely has to win to get in.

 

[lawgator1]

I think the Florida-Auburn winner should get in.
I realize that AU did nothing in pre-conference play, but with so many bubble teams falling to bottom teams this week, winning what at that point would be 9/10 by AU would be pretty solid. Auburn's RPI is #64 right now. Yeah, that's not so hot, but it is exactly where UK's was when while they continued to be in on the bubble discussion.

Florida RPI is 48. With wins over Arky and AU, they might worm their way up to around the low 40s and thereby might be able to sneak in.

Got to tell you, though, this team has had several games in the last few weeks where they knew that tournament inclusion was a major factor. They lost most of them, with really the win only significant win over a hapless Kentucky team, in pretty much free-fall.

I guess I am saying that despite having a fairly reasonable and doable path layed out for them, I see no reason to believe that they will do what needs to be done.

 

[ukvols]

I'm not holding my breath on Florida winning two games against very beatable teams inside the state of Florida either - just saying that I think they'll get into the field if they do.

 

[hatvol96]

I think the Florida-Auburn winner should get in.
I realize that AU did nothing in pre-conference play, but with so many bubble teams falling to bottom teams this week, winning what at that point would be 9/10 by AU would be pretty solid. Auburn's RPI is #64 right now. Yeah, that's not so hot, but it is exactly where UK's was when while they continued to be in on the bubble discussion.

If Auburn is even considered for an at large berth, the Selection Committee should take drastic action and immediately shrink the tournament field back to 48, it's size before the last increase.

 

[Oldblood]

Florida RPI is 48. With wins over Arky and AU, they might worm their way up to around the low 40s and thereby might be able to sneak in.

Got to tell you, though, this team has had several games in the last few weeks where they knew that tournament inclusion was a major factor. They lost most of them, with really the win only significant win over a hapless Kentucky team, in pretty much free-fall.

I guess I am saying that despite having a fairly reasonable and doable path layed out for them, I see no reason to believe that they will do what needs to be done.

Good point. You could say they had this already with the SEC schedule this year and did not win enough games to get in.

 

[lawgator1]

Good point. You could say they had this already with the SEC schedule this year and did not win enough games to get in.

Which is why, 5 weeks ago, I said Florida at 5-1 at that time was no lock because they needed to go 10-6 in the conference and I was not at all convinced that they could go .500 down the stretch. They did not disappoint.


The one they should be absolutely ashamed of is Georgia. Had they beaten that just God-awful team, they would be 10-6 in conference. Had they played minimal basic defense against USC at USC and prevented that lay-up with a second remaining, same thing.

If they don't get in, a look back at the what ifs for them will be excruciating.

 

[ukvols]

I can't help but be quite distracted while reading your post.

 

[ukvols]

Stopping the winning play at South Carolina would have had a large effect on everybody, because that was the win that got USC going.

 

[lawgator1]

Stopping the winning play at South Carolina would have had a large effect on everybody, because that was the win that got USC going.

I think it cemented for Florida the "close-but-no-cigar" mentality that pretty much identifies our SEC year.

We only lost one game by a wide margin -- to you, at UT. All of the others were by less than five points.

 

[ukvols]

I think missing the NCAAs last season hurt too. Coming down the stretch, we were all on the bubble. The Gators were in the same position last year and due to youth, size, or whatever, failed. I think they are in a better position to make the NCAAs now then they were entering last season's SECT, but not by much.

 

[TennesseeFan07]

South Carolina should hang a banner if they make the NCAA. Or there's always the NIT 3 time champions shirts.

 

[lawgator1]

I think missing the NCAAs last season hurt too. Coming down the stretch, we were all on the bubble. The Gators were in the same position last year and due to youth, size, or whatever, failed. I think they are in a better position to make the NCAAs now then they were entering last season's SECT, but not by much.

My biggest problem is that they just haven't shown the ability to win tough, close games, down the stretch. Every good team they have played, and every decent team playing well at the time that they have played, the Gators have just wilted at the end.

No offense, but I put your loss Sunday directly on Pearl for not calling a timeout and setting up a play. As a result, your players looked timid and confused and it just sort of went helter skelter down underneath and that cost you the chance to win.

In contrast, Donovan can draw up whatever he wants in the last 60 seconds of a game, but we do not have the players to execute.

Being like the Gators means not getting in. Being like UT means getting in, and bounced quickly.

 

[ukvols]

Pearl is usually really good at drawing up a play during a timeout to get a single basket. And, yeah, I can't believe Tyler hesitated like that when he got the ball.

 

[lawgator1]

Pearl is usually really good at drawing up a play during a timeout to get a single basket. And, yeah, I can't believe Tyler hesitated like that when he got the ball.

I suppose he figured not calling timeout would prevent 'bama from organizing defensively and that even if you missed there would not be time for them to get anything together on their end.

Wrong on both counts, although odds of him making that fling up there were probably about 5 %. Thing is, by going that route, I really felt like he lef the players with no direction or plan for the last basket. No one really seemed in charge. Kind of weird, the way it all played out.