Magic number to beat Alabama

#1
Vol knight

Vol knight

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#1
In the last 4 seasons (from 2019 to now), Alabama is 39-0 when they hold their opponents to under 30 points. They are 4-4 when the opponent scores 30+ points.

Tennessee under Heupel is 12-2 when they score 30+ points. They are 0-4 when they score under 30 ( if you throw in UCF, his teams are 0-7 when held under 30 points).

Looking at these stats, it's clear that the offense is going to need to score in the 30s at least to have a chance to beat Bama.
 
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#3
#3
How many did we get last year? If we hit that number without them having Jameson/ Meech or Bolden then I think we could win.
 
#5
#5
kiddiedoc said:
This Saturday's defense leads me to believe that this could be a funny game. 27-20 UT.
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When i saw those stats, it is mindblowing that none of Heupel's teams that didn't reach 30 points didnt win at least a couple of them. They did have a chance to win one of those against Pitt this year if it hadn't went to OT.
 
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#8
#8
The offense is going to have to get at least 45. Possibly 50-55. I think Bama easily scores 40. Yes we are good at stopping the run but we haven’t see anything remotely close to Gibbs. Have you watched him play? The guy can flat out destroy teams.
 
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#9
#9
I think it depends alot on if BY plays. If he does, that number could be in the 50s.

If he doesn’t play, 31+ could win it.
 
#10
#10
BigOrangeTrain said:
The offense is going to have to get at least 45. Possibly 50-55. I think Bama easily scores 40. Yes we are good at stopping the run but we haven’t see anything remotely close to Gibbs. Have you watched him play? The guy can flat out destroy teams.
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Bama is 3rd in the nation at almost 260 rush yards / game.
We are 23rd with 207.
UF is 19th, at 215 / game
Pitt is 32nd at 195 / game.

We are 11th in the country with rush defense of 89 yard/ game.
Bana is 8th with 85 / game.

Texas and Pitt are 42 and 43 respectively.

We've played better rushing offenses than Bama and have nearly matched the per game metric. We've both played teams with similar stats for rushing defense.

I like our chances to contain Gibbs.
 
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#11
#11
McDad said:
Bama is 3rd in the nation at almost 260 rush yards / game.
We are 23rd with 207.
UF is 19th, at 215 / game
Pitt is 32nd at 195 / game.

We are 11th in the country with rush defense of 89 yard/ game.
Bana is 8th with 85 / game.

Texas and Pitt are 42 and 43 respectively.

We've played better rushing offenses than Bama and have nearly matched the per game metric. We've both played teams with similar stats for rushing defense.

I like our chances to contain Gibbs.
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And I don't think focusing on yards is the most useful stat. I mean, it has been said over and over that our defense is "bend but don't break."

Does it really hurt us if teams march 60 or 70 yards down the field, only to come up with 0 or at most 3 points? While we're scoring touchdowns? I'd take that trade-off all day long. Let them have yards, we'll focus on points.
  • We're 2nd in the nation in scoring offense, and 22nd in the nation in scoring defense.
  • Bama are 5th in the nation in scoring offense, and 6th in the country in scoring defense.
Overall edge is to them, but still I'm with you, I like our chances here.

Go Vols!
 
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#12
#12
VFL-82-JP said:
And I don't think focusing on yards is the most useful stat. I mean, it has been said over and over that our defense is "bend but don't break."

Does it really hurt us if teams march 60 or 70 yards down the field, only to come up with 0 or at most 3 points? While we're scoring touchdowns? I'd take that trade-off all day long. Let them have yards, we'll focus on points.
  • We're 2nd in the nation in scoring offense, and 22nd in the nation in scoring defense.
  • Bama are 5th in the nation in scoring offense, and 6th in the country in scoring defense.
Overall edge is to them, but still I'm with you, I like our chances here.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
Agreed. We can only reasonably discuss chances. They are still #1 or 2 in talent. Have a Heisman QB. And the best head coach in the game's history.
 
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#14
#14
Vol knight said:
In the last 4 seasons (from 2019 to now), Alabama is 39-0 when they hold their opponents to under 30 points. They are 4-4 when the opponent scores 30+ points.

Tennessee under Heupel is 12-2 when they score 30+ points. They are 0-4 when they score under 30 ( if you throw in UCF, his teams are 0-7 when held under 30 points).

Looking at these stats, it's clear that the offense is going to need to score in the 30s at least to have a chance to beat Bama.
Click to expand...

Fair assessment.....no doubt TN will need to hang 30+ to be in it. Not sure that'll be enough, especially if Young is back. But, hey, it why the game is played so we'll see.
 
#18
#18
VFL-82-JP said:
And I don't think focusing on yards is the most useful stat. I mean, it has been said over and over that our defense is "bend but don't break."

Does it really hurt us if teams march 60 or 70 yards down the field, only to come up with 0 or at most 3 points? While we're scoring touchdowns? I'd take that trade-off all day long. Let them have yards, we'll focus on points.
  • We're 2nd in the nation in scoring offense, and 22nd in the nation in scoring defense.
  • Bama are 5th in the nation in scoring offense, and 6th in the country in scoring defense.
Overall edge is to them, but still I'm with you, I like our chances here.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
Remember when everyone said time of possession is crucial to win games? Ky says maybe not. Scoring tds instead of settling for field goals is the key to beating Bama. Just do the Barry Switzer method of hanging half a hundred on em by halftime.
 
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#19
#19
I'm not sure if there's a 'magic' number, but in deference to a popular book...42. Regardless, we need to keep the accelerator pedal firmly planted to the floor throughout the game. Make a couple of stops on defense and/or capitalize on a few mistakes (a la the game in Red Stick), and keep driving.

Strike first, strike hard, no mercy...I'd like nothing more than to see the elephant fans head for the exits by the end of the 3rd, load up in their bandwagons, and drive themselves into the river out of shame and agony. A win is a win, but it's sweeter when the broken, desiccated (due to the shedding of many tears) husks of the Bammer faithful are blown away on a breeze permeated by cigar smoke and generated by the POTS belting out Rocky Top into the night. Go Vols.
 
#20
#20
i picked us 35 to 34. Hard to pick not knowing if Bryce is playing. If he does play he may not last to halftime with that shoulder injury if our pass rush gets to him.
 
#21
#21
In 2019 LSU won 46-41, 2021 TAMU beat'em 41-38. . . . if BY plays with we will need to score at least 46 to win.
 
#22
#22
The best quote I heard after this past game was:

“Tennessee has taken on the persona of their coach, and just like when he spoke after then game, you can tell this Tennessee team “expects” to win.“.

Been a long time coming. Go Vols! Beat Bama!
 
#23
#23
I think we need to score 30+ points to feel safe. It will be the best defense that we have played to date.
 
#24
#24
This will be a very interesting matchup for sure. I think we'll have to score at least 30, just because they'll find a way to do put up some points. I would love to get Gerald Mincey back this week to at least help contain Will Anderson and those edge rushers. Our Rush defense has been elite, but we are going to have a huge test in this one. That's the biggest matchup in this game. Haynes king is awful, but he even had success against the Alabama secondary (and that's without their best WR). If Tillman is back, I could see our passing attack having a nice day, which will help open up running lanes as well.
 
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