Missouri and Turnovers

#1
Volmania

Volmania

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#1
Missouri has really benefitted from turnovers this season. Currently they are tied for 3rd in the NCAA with a +12 margin behind only Houston and Buffalo.

Turnovers greatly affect a team's chance of winning but have more to do with good fortune than skill.

A team with a +1 turnover margin will win the game 68% of the time. A +2 margin translates to a win 81% of the time and +3 or more, 95% wins.

In the UGA game alone Missouri was +4, helping them win despite being outgained 454 yards to 375.

In their other 2 big victories, Florida & Vandy, Mizzou had a +1 margin. Surprisingly, They had a +2 margin against South Carolina and still managed to lose.

If the Vols can avoid the Mizzou turnover curse I think we have a good chance of another win over a ranked team.
 
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#2
#2
Good stuff and I agree it's a very important stat - Are they 'causing' these turnovers with good D or are they simply mistakes by their opponents? I'm sure it's a blend of both, but that is a question I have.
 
#3
#3
Volmania said:
Missouri has really benefitted from turnovers this season. Currently they are tied for 3rd in the NCAA with a +12 margin behind only Houston and Buffalo.

Turnovers greatly affect a team's chance of winning but have more to do with good fortune than skill.

A team with a +1 turnover margin will win the game 68% of the time. A +2 margin translates to a win 81% of the time and +3 or more, 95% wins.

In the UGA game alone Missouri was +4, helping them win despite being outgained 454 yards to 375.

In their other 2 big victories, Florida & Vandy, Mizzou had a +1 margin. Surprisingly, They had a +2 margin against South Carolina and still managed to lose.

If the Vols can avoid the Mizzou turnover curse I think we have a good chance of another win over a ranked team.
Click to expand...

You must not have been on here after the WKU game. It was all skillz! :loco:
 
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#5
#5
Not a very comforting stat when we've got a true freshman going in for his first ever start.
 
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#6
#6
Mizzou is first in the SEC in INT's. UT is 2nd. Mizzou is 1st in fumbles recovered. UT is third. Considering the difference in strength of schedule, turnovers gained are close to a push.

Mizzou is 1st in TO margin in the SEC. UT is 4th. However Mizzou does take care of the ball very well.
 
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#7
#7
sjt18 said:
Mizzou is first in the SEC in INT's. UT is 2nd. Mizzou is 1st in fumbles recovered. UT is third. Considering the difference in strength of schedule, turnovers gained are close to a push.

Mizzou is 1st in TO margin in the SEC. UT is 4th. However Mizzou does take care of the ball very well.
Click to expand...

True but Maul should have had three interceptions if SC could have caught the ones thrown right at them.
 
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#9
#9
Panthro said:
Not a very comforting stat when we've got a true freshman going in for his first ever start.
Click to expand...
Tiny has guaranteed that young Dobbs will have all the time in the world to make his reads and deliver.
I for one believe him.
 
#10
#10
Volmania said:
Missouri has really benefitted from turnovers this season. Currently they are tied for 3rd in the NCAA with a +12 margin behind only Houston and Buffalo.

Turnovers greatly affect a team's chance of winning but have more to do with good fortune than skill.

A team with a +1 turnover margin will win the game 68% of the time. A +2 margin translates to a win 81% of the time and +3 or more, 95% wins.

In the UGA game alone Missouri was +4, helping them win despite being outgained 454 yards to 375.

In their other 2 big victories, Florida & Vandy, Mizzou had a +1 margin. Surprisingly, They had a +2 margin against South Carolina and still managed to lose.

If the Vols can avoid the Mizzou turnover curse I think we have a good chance of another win over a ranked team.
Click to expand...

Great thread op! This will be huge. I wonder if Mizzu has had so much luck with TOs because of their D line getting so much pressure on the qb
 
#12
#12
Panthro said:
Not a very comforting stat when we've got a true freshman going in for his first ever start.
Click to expand...
Dobbs scored more points in a half against Bamas STARTERS ( YES, go back and watch it) than 5 other teams did in 60 minutes this season.
VT Tech managed 10 in 60 minutes.
Saban didn't want the TD scored against his team and Dobbs did it anyway.
No worries fellows.
 
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#13
#13
We'll just have to get them to turn over the ball 5 times in 6 plays as we did WKU.
 
#14
#14
calban said:
Dobbs scored more points in a half against Bamas STARTERS ( YES, go back and watch it) than 5 other teams did in 60 minutes this season.
VT Tech managed 10 in 60 minutes.
Saban didn't want the TD scored against his team and Dobbs did it anyway.
No worries fellows.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I know. I'm not saying I doubt Dobbs personally. I just would rather have him going up against a defense like Georgia's or even Auburn's for his first start.
His maturity is probably what I've heard the most about. That will come in handy when paying a team that forces turnovers like this one.
 
#15
#15
We'll just have to be stingy and not let them take the ball away from us and then let our D loose and take the ball away from them several times.

We need to move the ball consistently, eat clock time and keep their O sitting on the bench and seriously get after their QB and keep pressure on him all the time.

It's time to show the world that Tennessee football really is on the way back up the mountain.

#BrickbyBrick...VFL...GBO!!!
 
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#16
#16
Volmania said:
Missouri has really benefitted from turnovers this season. Currently they are tied for 3rd in the NCAA with a +12 margin behind only Houston and Buffalo.

Turnovers greatly affect a team's chance of winning but have more to do with good fortune than skill.

A team with a +1 turnover margin will win the game 68% of the time. A +2 margin translates to a win 81% of the time and +3 or more, 95% wins.

In the UGA game alone Missouri was +4, helping them win despite being outgained 454 yards to 375.

In their other 2 big victories, Florida & Vandy, Mizzou had a +1 margin. Surprisingly, They had a +2 margin against South Carolina and still managed to lose.

If the Vols can avoid the Mizzou turnover curse I think we have a good chance of another win over a ranked team.
Click to expand...

Our D Line forces a lot of turnovers as a result of pressure. A perfect example is one of the Georgia turnovers where one of our DE's came in and crushed their QB causing a fumble, scoop, and score. I am confident they are salivating at the idea of a freshman QB coming in, but I hear your OLine is pretty good?
 
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#17
#17
everytrueson said:
Our D Line forces a lot of turnovers as a result of pressure. A perfect example is one of the Georgia turnovers where one of our DE's came in and crushed their QB causing a fumble, scoop, and score. I am confident they are salivating at the idea of a freshman QB coming in, but I hear your OLine is pretty good?
Click to expand...

Our O-line is horrible. Don't worry at all about them. We also haven't played anyone, so they haven't really been tested either. The fact that we just beat SCe WITH their starting QB, and you guys just lost to them against 3 quarters of their backup was just an aberration. It was really a fluke.

We're starting our 3rd string QB, which is also of great concern. Please ignore the fact that this seemed to open up our playbook, he is more accurate, and is more of a threat to keep it and gain yards. Also ignore the fact that he led our offense to score more touchdowns against Alabama, in one half, than their previous five opponents, combined.

I'm not even sure we'll cross mid-field. I also suspect we'll never punt. Instead, your undersized DL will just take the ball at their discretion.

Your wins against Murray St, Toledo, Indiana, Ark St, and Vandy loom large. The wins against UGA and UF, to be honest, would have looked a bit better if they hadn't have been playing with decimated rosters. As a matter of fact, your loss to USCe wouldn't have looked so bad if they had been healthy.

There seems to be a common denominator here... Hmmm... Oh! UT physically pounded every good team you've faced. I mean, beat them up and put them in splints... As gifts to you! But we agree. We should be really worried about the physical team you're fielding.

:hi:
 
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#18
#18
everytrueson said:
Our D Line forces a lot of turnovers as a result of pressure. A perfect example is one of the Georgia turnovers where one of our DE's came in and crushed their QB causing a fumble, scoop, and score. I am confident they are salivating at the idea of a freshman QB coming in, but I hear your OLine is pretty good?
Click to expand...

Is it true that you lost to USCe on homecoming?

Date Opponent / Event Location Time

Military Appreciation Day
08/31/13 vs. Murray State TV Columbia, Mo. W, 58-14

09/07/13 vs. Toledo TV Columbia, Mo. W, 38-23
09/21/13 at Indiana TV Bloomington, Ind. W, 45-28
Family Weekend
09/28/13 vs. Arkansas State TV Columbia, Mo. W, 41-19

10/05/13 at Vanderbilt * TV Nashville, Tenn. W, 51-28
10/12/13 at Georgia * TV Athens, Ga. W, 41-26
Gold Rush
10/19/13 vs. Florida * TV Columbia, Mo. W, 36-17

102nd Homecoming
10/26/13 vs. South Carolina * TV Columbia, Mo. L, 27-24 (2OT)

11/02/13 vs. Tennessee * TV Columbia, Mo. 6:00 p.m. CT
11/09/13 at Kentucky * TV Lexington, Ky. 11:00 a.m. CT
11/23/13 at Ole Miss * Oxford, Miss. TBA
Blackout
11/30/13 vs. Texas A&M * Columbia, Mo. TBA
Click to expand...

That must have smarted.

:hi:
 
#19
#19
everytrueson said:
Our D Line forces a lot of turnovers as a result of pressure. A perfect example is one of the Georgia turnovers where one of our DE's came in and crushed their QB causing a fumble, scoop, and score. I am confident they are salivating at the idea of a freshman QB coming in, but I hear your OLine is pretty good?
Click to expand...

I am confident that we give up 0 sacks.

Like Tennessee, Mizzou is an opportunistic D. Statistically we're similar in several defensive cat's but your Red Zone D is horrible.
 
#20
#20
Orange_Crush said:
Our O-line is horrible. Don't worry at all about them. We also haven't played anyone, so they haven't really been tested either. The fact that we just beat SCe WITH their starting QB, and you guys just lost to them against 3 quarters of their backup was just an aberration. It was really a fluke.

We're starting our 3rd string QB, which is also of great concern. Please ignore the fact that this seemed to open up our playbook, he is more accurate, and is more of a threat to keep it and gain yards. Also ignore the fact that he led our offense to score more touchdowns against Alabama, in one half, than their previous five opponents, combined.

I'm not even sure we'll cross mid-field. I also suspect we'll never punt. Instead, your undersized DL will just take the ball at their discretion.

Your wins against Murray St, Toledo, Indiana, Ark St, and Vandy loom large. The wins against UGA and UF, to be honest, would have looked a bit better if they hadn't have been playing with decimated rosters. As a matter of fact, your loss to USCe wouldn't have looked so bad if they had been healthy.

There seems to be a common denominator here... Hmmm... Oh! UT physically pounded every good team you've faced. I mean, beat them up and put them in splints... As gifts to you! But we agree. We should be really worried about the physical team you're fielding.

:hi:
Click to expand...

Yeah it doesn't look like he was in here trying to talk smack to or insult the team or the fanbase....
 
#22
#22
Orange_Crush said:
Heavy-handed? Perhaps...

Just thought I'd give them a bit more to "salivate" over.
Click to expand...

So why wouldn't they salivate over a Fr QB again? Am I missing something here or do I just need to be educated here? I am not sure why you would even try to **** talk a Mizzou fan at this point, because our injury-ridden, dumpster of a team we put on the field last year STILL beat you at home. Go ahead, say it was a down year for you, it was the worst team we had in 10 years and we still walked out of there with a win.

I know you don't speak for the majority of Vol fans because I was at that game and they were nothing but gracious. So be a douche if you want. You better hope your OLine is good, because our DLine will bring heat. Just be thankful that Franklin is out hurt or it would, and still might get embarrassing for you.

Good luck Saturday.
 
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#23
#23
everytrueson said:
So why wouldn't they salivate over a Fr QB again? Am I missing something here or do I just need to be educated here? I am not sure why you would even try to **** talk a Mizzou fan at this point, because our injury-ridden, dumpster of a team we put on the field last year STILL beat DOOLEY at home. Go ahead, say it was a down year for you, it was the worst team we had in 10 years and we still walked out of there with a win.

Good luck Saturday.
Click to expand...

fyp
 
#24
#24
Missing the point of why Mizzou is winning.

They average 500 yards per game. AVERAGE! That is 3rd behind A&M and Auburn, wno we play next.

Turnovers are big but this game will be won or lost by our D. If they get 500 or more yards on us, we are toast.
 
#25
#25
everytrueson said:
So why wouldn't they salivate over a Fr QB again? Am I missing something here or do I just need to be educated here? I am not sure why you would even try to **** talk a Mizzou fan at this point, because our injury-ridden, dumpster of a team we put on the field last year STILL beat you at home. Go ahead, say it was a down year for you, it was the worst team we had in 10 years and we still walked out of there with a win.

I know you don't speak for the majority of Vol fans because I was at that game and they were nothing but gracious. So be a douche if you want. You better hope your OLine is good, because our DLine will bring heat. Just be thankful that Franklin is out hurt or it would, and still might get embarrassing for you.

Good luck Saturday.
Click to expand...


Dooley's gone. '12 defense statistically the worst in the programs history and still you needed OT to win.

I'm glad Gaines is back from IR and want Josey to be cleared and wish Franklin to be cleared as well. I want your best playing to eliminate the excuses when you lose.
 
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