Mizzou's Run Defense - Overrated

[Rifleman]

Mizzou has a statistically great run defense. I think they are strong, but not as strong as their stats suggest. Why?

* They often sell out on getting into the backfield with stunts, run blitzes, and pinch-techniques (the ends go toward the center not the edge) that clog the lanes.

* They've gotten ahead early with turnovers and every team they've played has abandoned the run.

* They gotten 25 sacks as teams fall behind and become predictable passers. The lost yardage counts against the run totals, not the pass totals.

* If you adjust their run totals to exclude sacks, they give up 4.4 yards per carry instead of 3.4.

* They give up more passing yards than all but 11 FBS teams. Where's the incentive to run the ball?

* Teams choose to pass the ball against Mizzou more than any other FBS team except Rutgers and Stanford: 59.75% of all plays.

* And of course Michael Sam is playing out of his mind, run or pass. Has he faced a RT of the caliber of Ja'Wuan James. No.

To follow suit and stop running the ball would be a mistake. Teams pass it around on Mizzou, but Mizzou leads the SEC in INTs. Don't take the easy money. With our O-line, we should run the ball however much we please no matter what happens early.

If Mizzou continues to run blitz, pinch and stunt like they did against Carolina, we can follow Spurrier's lead and destroy them with the short, safer, passing game. The Mizzou D-line ran themselves out of the play every time leaving the backs alone to catch screens against the weaker part of the defense. Mizzou slowed the Gamecock run game to a crawl, but the result was to give up 113 receiving yards to running backs. Not a great trade off.

Still, I believe if we don't abandon the run early, we will figure out whatever new tricks Pinkel comes up with Saturday night and we will wear down their undersized D-line.

Teams have had success running the ball against Mizzou, they just haven't stayed with it enough.

Murray State
Miller 73yds 6.6ypc
Brady 33yds 5.5ypc

Toledo
Fluellen 111yds 6.5ypc

Vanderbilt
Seymour 65yds 5.4ypc

Georgia
Green 87yds 7.3ypc
Douglas 70yds 5.0ypc

 

[Other_Guy]

Ok, so what's you're point?

 

[OrangeInKy]

Mizzou has a statistically great run defense. Why?

* They often sell out on getting into the backfield with stunts, run blitzes, and pinch-techniques (the ends go toward the center not the edge) that clog the lanes.

* They get lots of sacks and TFLs off these schemes and that counts against the run totals.

* They give up more passing yards than all but 11 FBS teams. Where's the incentive to run the ball?

* They've gotten ahead early with turnovers and every team they've played has abandoned the run.

* And of course Michael Sam is playing out of his mind, run or pass.

To follow suit and stop running the ball would be a mistake. Teams pass it around on Mizzou, but Mizzou leads the SEC in INTs. Don't take the easy money. With our O-line, we should run the ball however much we please no matter what happens early.

If Mizzou continues to run blitz, pinch and stunt like they did against Carolina, we can follow Spurrier's lead and destroy them with the short, safer, passing game. The Mizzou D-line ran themselves out of the play every time leaving the backs alone to catch screens against the weaker part of the defense. Mizzou slowed the Gamecock run game to a crawl, but the result was to give up 113 receiving yards to running backs. Not a great trade off.

Still, I believe if we don't abandon the run early, we will figure out whatever new tricks Pinkel comes up with Saturday night and we will wear down their undersized D-line.

Teams have had success running the ball against Mizzou, they just haven't stayed with it enough.

Murray State
Miller 73yds 6.6ypc
Brady 33yds 5.5ypc

Toledo
Fluellen 111yds 6.5ypc

Vanderbilt
Seymour 65yds 5.4ypc

Georgia
Green 87yds 7.3ypc
Douglas 70yds 5.0ypc

Great research and post. Thanks!:thumbsup:

 

[Other_Guy]

Because you're points just made it's own argument against you lol

 

[Ice_Vol]

We just need to win the turnover battle and i think we will be fine. Granted easier said than done. Id feel alot better staying with the run game with a true freshman under center.

 

[Bigorangedad3528]

Taking care of the ball should be tops on our list. Watched the South Carolina and Missouri game and early on it seemed South Carolina could move it at will. Just kept shooting their selves in the foot. Missouri is a really good team you don't have just one loss this late in the season and not be good. With all that said though Tennessee has a excellent chance for victory this weekend. Would be a great win on the road.

 

[BanditVol]

Because you're points just made it's own argument against you lol

psssst....it's "YOUR"

 

[Rifleman]

Ok, so what's you're point?

Don't abandon the run just because their pass defense seems to stink.

If you throw for 300 yards but end up with 4 picks, you lose.

Another stat I forgot to add, but have now: teams run a higher percentage of pass plays on Mizzou than all other FBS teams except for Rutgers and Stanford: 59.75%.

That has a way of making it look like you're a run stopper when you really aren't.

 

[Rifleman]

Great research and post. Thanks!:thumbsup:

Most welcome. I think we will likely flip the script on Mizzou and run the ball more than pass it. If not, I certainly hope it is because we are running a lot of screens like South Carolina did.

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

I have to admit their D-line is very very good, but they've also been padded against some very bad O-lines. USC's O-line is horrendous IMO, so is Georgia's, Florida's is nothing special, and those are the only 3 decent teams they've played.

Their D-line is good but that's the main strength of their team. Our main strength is in our O-line so we match up well. Their other strength lies in their exceptionally tall, exceptionally fast receivers and that's where they can beat us. Our secondary needs to be in beast mode. A couple of early interceptions could really set the tone for us to dominate this game.

 

[BanditVol]

I like the argument, but you have been selective in what stats you quote. Davis of USCe only averaged 2.7 yards a carry, and I can't help but notice the similarity in USCe offense to our own. That is, without Connor Shaw they were weak at the QB position, had trouble throwing, and so Missouri sold out to stop the run. And succeeded for 3 quarters. USCe score with Thomas in was 0, but when Shaw came in they scored 17 in the 4th quarter alone.


Also, Missouri rates 41st in the country in Pass Efficiency Defense, which is average, not bad. The efficiency rating for QBs is not perfect, but it does factor in everything and is definitely better than looking at just yards.

Since you don't list it above, their run D is 16th in the country at 111 yards per game. Great point about the yards per attempt, but at 3.41 yards per attempt for the season, Missouri only drops to 21st in that category.

Let me point out that the early part of their schedule was incredibly soft and this no doubt pads the above stats a bit.

Regardless, it looks to me like strength vs strength with us running the ball, and our below-average passing attack vs. their average pass D.

However, I feel confident we can hang 150 yards running on them. We have beaten every rush D we faced this year by an average of 40+ yards over what they have allowed. I think 150 yards running is a minimum. This is even truer with Dobbs being a far greater run threat than Worley.

Further, since they have little film on Dobbs, and their pass D IS average at best, I think we can make some plays there...hopefully enough to win. I DEFINITELY think Dobbs >> Thomas, but we will find out for sure on Saturday.

Good analysis above, but IMO you are too selective in what stats you are showing.

 

[RiseToTheTop]

This is why they get killed in the screen game. Their attacking style gets them sliced to shreds with screens and short stuff.

 

[H2O Vol]

Bajakian's play calling a balanced attack is the best we can hope for. When we run, hope we run right that's been our strength. I'd nix the reverse sweep, and bubble screens. As for passing, short and sweet quick timing routes w/ the occasional deep 'ball. I look for Pig and Croom to have a good day.

 

[Rifleman]

I like the argument, but you have been selective in what stats you quote. Davis of USCe only averaged 2.7 yards a carry, and I can't help but notice the similarity in USCe offense to our own. That is, without Connor Shaw they were weak at the QB position, had trouble throwing, and so Missouri sold out to stop the run. And succeeded for 3 quarters. USCe score with Thomas in was 0, but when Shaw came in they scored 17 in the 4th quarter alone.


Also, Missouri rates 41st in the country in Pass Efficiency Defense, which is average, not bad. The efficiency rating for QBs is not perfect, but it does factor in everything and is definitely better than looking at just yards.

Since you don't list it above, their run D is 16th in the country at 111 yards per game. Great point about the yards per attempt, but at 3.41 yards per attempt for the season, Missouri only drops to 21st in that category.

Let me point out that the early part of their schedule was incredibly soft and this no doubt pads the above stats a bit.

Regardless, it looks to me like strength vs strength with us running the ball, and our below-average passing attack vs. their average pass D.

However, I feel confident we can hang 150 yards running on them. We have beaten every rush D we faced this year by an average of 40+ yards over what they have allowed. I think 150 yards running is a minimum. This is even truer with Dobbs being a far greater run threat than Worley.

Further, since they have little film on Dobbs, and their pass D IS average at best, I think we can make some plays there...hopefully enough to win. I DEFINITELY think Dobbs >> Thomas, but we will find out for sure on Saturday.

Good analysis above, but IMO you are too selective in what stats you are showing.

Fair points.

I just don't think that the 111 yards per game rushing stat means much when teams are throwing the ball 60% of the time.

Also their yards per carry is skewed because they've gotten leads, pinned their ears back and have a ton of sacks. Those sacks count as rushes.

They are not the 16th best run defense in the country. I'd rank them lower than any of the SEC teams we have faced to date and lower than Oregon as well.

Also, I think our O-line is healthy and twice as good as South Carolina's.

Oh, and South Carolina passed for 423 yards with Thompson missing tons of open receivers. That Mizzou pass defense is atrocious.

 

[The Orange Pants]

Translation: We gon whip dey ass.

 

[OrangeInKy]

Most welcome. I think we will likely flip the script on Mizzou and run the ball more than pass it. If not, I certainly hope it is because we are running a lot of screens like South Carolina did.

I want to see some kind of wildcat package to mix it up in the running game. I hope Lane and Neal each get a lot of carries, and that Dobb's mobility can help us stretch that defense. It looks like he can throw off of the run rather well so I think we can do that.

 

[Rifleman]

Translation: We gon whip dey ass.

In a nutshell.

South Carolina had 11 more first downs than Mizzou last week.

Mizzou was 4-14 on 3rd downs.

Mauk completed on just 40% of passes - 10-25.

Yet the Gamecocks kept shooting themselves in the foot: 3 turnovers, one going into the endzone, two failed 4th down conversions (one on 4th and inches on their own side of the field), missing open recievers, dropping interceptions that hit DBs in the hands . . .

If we just play our game and avoid mistakes, we'll win easily.

 

[OrangeInKy]

In a nutshell.

South Carolina had 11 more first downs than Mizzou last week.

Mizzou was 4-14 on 3rd downs.

Mauk completed on just 40% of passes - 10-25.

Yet the Gamecocks kept shooting themselves in the foot: 3 turnovers, one going into the endzone, two failed 4th down conversions (one on 4th and inches on their own side of the field), missing open recievers, dropping interceptions that hit DBs in the hands . . .

If we just play our game and avoid mistakes, we'll win easily.

I think Dobbs will play smart and limit mistakes. It may mean playing conservative but I think this guy will be as prepared as any freshman qb we have seen, with the exception of 1 other guy who I need not name. I totally expected him to freeze Saturday at Bama, but he went right in and did work, so I expect he will be ready for Mizzou

 

[volroadwarrior]

We move the ball on them, but those big fast WRs worry me if they can catch the ball.

 

[walkenvol]

Would the QB keeping the ball on the zone read run plays not be the best counter to MO's DE crashing down?

 

[GBOVOLS]

I believe Pig and Jason should have a good game at Mizzou. They should live off of those short routes.

 

[Crazy Ivan]

Still, I believe if we don't abandon the run early, we will figure out whatever new tricks Pinkel comes up with Saturday night and we will wear down their undersized D-line.

Hmmm...when have I read that before on VN? Oh yeah. The week of the Oregon game.

J/K. I also think we can run the ball with some success against Mizzou , but if, and only IF, Dobbs and the receivers have some success early in the passing game. I suspect Mizzou's DC is going to test that theory out early and challenge Dobbs to throw.

 

[GBOVOLS]

Would the QB keeping the ball on the zone read run plays not be the best counter to MO's DE crashing down?

I just thought that too. They will get burned for at least 50 yard this game that way

 

[Rifleman]

Would the QB keeping the ball on the zone read run plays not be the best counter to MO's DE crashing down?

No doubt we will have some room there. I am very interested to see if Mizzou can run those inside stunts and still protect the edge against Dobbs.

They sure can't afford to creep a safety down as bad as their secondary is, so they'll likely have to give a linebacker contain responsibilities there.

After playing Bama last week, Coach Jake must feel elated watching the Mizzou game tape. Opportunities abound.

 

[engineerVOL]

Your points provide evidence of why they are great against the run, but good that is actually good information that i appreciate.

Cam Sutton has another pick in this game... he may even take it to the house if he gets blockers or steps in front of a quick out. Their receivers do worry me, too... but only if they have the speed that has killed us thus far. Cooper, Patton, D. Thomas... all housed short passes against us. I don't know what kind of acceleration or ball skills the Mizzou wideouts have but if they simply just big with good hands.. then i like my chances. I just don't like competing agaisnt speedy wideouts... they destroy us.