More on the deficit impact of Obamacare

#2
#2
I honestly don't know what to believe anymore regarding the cost of this thing. All I know is I don't want to be forced to buy anything.
 
#4
#4
thinkprogess is critical of his math? No way

and this part confuses me

But the long-term deficit projections are so dire primarily because we assume that benefits will continue to be paid in full even after the Medicare and Social Security trust funds are exhausted. If no benefits beyond incoming revenue can be paid after the trust funds are exhausted, then the fiscal outlook really isn’t untenable.
what are the odds this really happens? Obviously something like that can't be scored but common sense says...
 
#6
#6
#7
#7
Clear as mud.

I do see that the main guy, Blahous, was an aide to two Republican senators and to GW Bush. And there has been some pretty harsh criticism of his math.

Washington Stuck Fighting Wrong Health-Care Battle | The Health Care Blog

Charles Blahous' Absurd 'New Math' In A Chart | ThinkProgress

3rd thread in the last day were you attack the associations/veracity of the source as opposed to accept that the person could have a valid point

(Seals, former CIA operative, these guys).

Never mind that one of the guys is a trustee for SS and Medicare.


You can't possibly say that the double counting which the CBO, CMMS Director, etc. have all concluded changes the deficit impact is a fallacy and these guys are making it up because one has Republican ties.
 
#9
#9
I honestly don't know what to believe anymore regarding the cost of this thing. All I know is I don't want to be forced to buy anything.

Can't say this guy is accurate in his overall prediction since so much of this is arcane accounting and assumptions.

However, we do know that the CBO projections originally ignored the double counting and that numerous folks including the head of Medicare have said the accounting used by the POTUS to claim it would lower the deficit is dubious at best.

Commonsense and past history tells us this thing is going to add to the deficit.
 
#13
#13
3rd thread in the last day were you attack the associations/veracity of the source as opposed to accept that the person could have a valid point

(Seals, former CIA operative, these guys).

Never mind that one of the guys is a trustee for SS and Medicare.


You can't possibly say that the double counting which the CBO, CMMS Director, etc. have all concluded changes the deficit impact is a fallacy and these guys are making it up because one has Republican ties.


I didn't "attack" him, I just pointed out that he is far from a neutral observer. My counter-sources are also politically biased, but if I understand correctly their point about his math, you have to wonder whether he isn't shading it quite a bit by making some absurd assumptions.

The only neutral source I have recently seen comment is the CBO, which says it is a slight net budget reducer in the first decade, and then a substantial budget reducer the following decade.

As for the SEALS, what I objected to was the reporting of that "story" as though these fellows had been sought out by a reporter trying to get to the truth when, in reality it turns out some of them are friends with each other and one is now a Republican state senator, and the "story" originally suspiciously appeared as "news" in a conservative British tabloid.

This technique has been a favorite ploy by the far right for the last few years. A British tabloid paper with a pronounced conservative agenda, and unknown to many Americans, goes out and finds some people to criticize Obama and then prints it as though it was news. Then some American bloggers, particularly Drudge or Hannity or Limbaugh, pick it up and reprint it as though it were a legitimate news story that these guys had each simply come forward with some hard facts, as opposed to their opinion masquerading as fact.

The reason that guys like Drudge, Breitbart (when he was alive), et al, have such lousy reputations in journalistic circles is because they knowingly re-publish or rehash agenda-driven political mish-mash as though it had the imprimatur of actual journalism, as opposed to basically a political piece written the guise of reporting.
 
#14
#14
LG, how do you take 500 billion out of one program, call it savings, but then turn around and spend that money in another program and still call it saving?

if you were to not buy a pair of jorts and get your mullet trimmed, you've saved yourself $10, but if you go right out and spend that $10 on a case of Milwaukee's Best, you haven't saved any money
 
#15
#15
LG, how do you take 500 billion out of one program, call it savings, but then turn around and spend that money in another program and still call it saving?

if you were to not buy a pair of jorts and get your mullet trimmed, you've saved yourself $10, but if you go right out and spend that $10 on a case of Milwaukee's Best, you haven't saved any money

The assumption is that the savings get spent. As noted in the criticisms, you could make that argument about ANY program cuts or savings.
 
#16
#16
I didn't "attack" him, I just pointed out that he is far from a neutral observer. My counter-sources are also politically biased, but if I understand correctly their point about his math, you have to wonder whether he isn't shading it quite a bit by making some absurd assumptions.

I said you attacked his associations and veracity rather than his point. Classic move to discredit the point by saying he's biased because of his associations.

Where do you see absurd assumptions? Are they any more absurd than counting a cut and savings twice?

The only neutral source I have recently seen comment is the CBO, which says it is a slight net budget reducer in the first decade, and then a substantial budget reducer the following decade.

The CBO made the calculation with the absurd assumption of double counting. They admitted that assumption was in fact double counting and the results are different without the double counting.

As for the SEALS, what I objected to was the reporting of that "story" as though these fellows had been sought out by a reporter trying to get to the truth when, in reality it turns out some of them are friends with each other and one is now a Republican state senator, and the "story" originally suspiciously appeared as "news" in a conservative British tabloid.

Same point - default position of question the veracity of the source rather than lend any credence to the story.

This technique has been a favorite ploy by the far right for the last few years. A British tabloid paper with a pronounced conservative agenda, and unknown to many Americans, goes out and finds some people to criticize Obama and then prints it as though it was news. Then some American bloggers, particularly Drudge or Hannity or Limbaugh, pick it up and reprint it as though it were a legitimate news story that these guys had each simply come forward with some hard facts, as opposed to their opinion masquerading as fact.

The reason that guys like Drudge, Breitbart (when he was alive), et al, have such lousy reputations in journalistic circles is because they knowingly re-publish or rehash agenda-driven political mish-mash as though it had the imprimatur of actual journalism, as opposed to basically a political piece written the guise of reporting.

Do you honestly believe that Obamacare will reduce the deficit over the next decade?
 
#17
#17
The assumption is that the savings get spent. As noted in the criticisms, you could make that argument about ANY program cuts or savings.

but we're not talking about ANY program, we're talking about Obamacare and the fuzzy math used to claim that it will reduce the deficit
 
#18
#18
The assumption is that the savings get spent. As noted in the criticisms, you could make that argument about ANY program cuts or savings.

The CBO projections only yield the results of deficit neutrality if you assume the savings are NOT spent.

Is it intellectually honest to claim that is what is happening in reality - that deficit neutrality is in fact an accounting illusion?
 
#19
#19
Not that this is new but it does more clearly explain the double counting and shows the financial impact - raising the deficit by 1/3 trillion over next decade.

Blahous and Capretta: Exposing the Medicare Double Count - WSJ.com

So I guess technically Obama was right when he said it would not add "one dime" to the deficit. It adds about 3.8 trillion dimes...

Is that an example the new math we keep hearing about?

Don't you mean 38 trillion dimes?

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#22
#22
I think the fine print said that was the first installment.

The devil is in the details!

It's all about what they don't tell you that really counts.

Cost of Government Center

Among the more ridiculous examples of government waste, slush fund grants from the fund distributed through the CDC’s Communities Putting Prevention to Work program went to $7.5 million on pet spaying in Nashville because “it wasn’t fair to ask residents to get outside and walk for fitness when they had to worry about stray dogs nipping at their heels.”

Health and Human Services has a list of grants from the aforementioned Prevention program totaling $373 million including $6.3 million in Jefferson County Alabama to “disseminate health information through mass media and targeted radio dramas.” We didn’t know radio dramas were still popular.

In 2010, as part of the National Public Health Improvement Initiative, almost every state received $100,000 from the slush fund to establish a full time Performance Improvement Manager who will “participate in a national network of performance improvement professionals supported by CDC.” Sounds like another taxpayer-funded vacation a la the GSA travel model.

Pima County, Arizona received $15.8 million in funds that went to programs like “composting cooperatives” while the Indiana State Department of Health received $4.5 million that went to a variety of projects including “health prompts at stairwells and elevators in public venues.” Finally, Washington State received $15.5 million, some of which went to “supporting the development of healthy corner stores.”


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No. They said $384 billion - isn't that 3.84 trillion dimes?

Oops, my bad then.

Wonder how much 3,84 trillion dimes weighs?

Kudos to Obama for holding down expenditures!

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#23
#23
LG, how do you take 500 billion out of one program, call it savings, but then turn around and spend that money in another program and still call it saving?

if you were to not buy a pair of jorts and get your mullet trimmed, you've saved yourself $10, but if you go right out and spend that $10 on a case of Milwaukee's Best, you haven't saved any money

I approve of this analogy. Well done sir.
 
#24
#24
Do you honestly believe that Obamacare will reduce the deficit over the next decade?

I have no idea, but I trust the CBO a lot more than a partisan with an agenda who is making demonstrably argumentative mathematical assumptions so as to justify politically - motivated conclusions.

but we're not talking about ANY program, we're talking about Obamacare and the fuzzy math used to claim that it will reduce the deficit

What is wrong with the CBO math ?

Don't cut and paste something. Prove you understand it by explaining their error.
 
#25
#25
The CBO projections only yield the results of deficit neutrality if you assume the savings are NOT spent.

Is it intellectually honest to claim that is what is happening in reality - that deficit neutrality is in fact an accounting illusion?

Again, that argument would apply to all proposals of reform. The result would be never to cut anything because, what's the point ?
 

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