Rodgers is going to win because he has the hot hand and the TD's, but Mahomes threw for 500 more yards in 1 fewer game and GB went 13-3 while KC went 14-1 (and they put up 32 in his only loss) against a tougher schedule.
I think that's true of offensive player of the year, but MVP is about value, not history, IMO. You just do your best to determine who produced the most value for their team, and that's your MVP.
QB's have an unfair advantage in MVP races because QB's are in the best position to create the most value.