Never ever punt...really!

#1
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transammann

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#1
There’s a high school in Arkansas that has made the most significant football innovation we’ve seen since the veer option. This high school is tearing up its state and is on the verge of revolutionizing the way football is played. TMQ suspects that within a few years, the phrase “Pulaski theory” will be as widely known as the phrase “shotgun spread.” In a copycat sport, Pulaski Academy of Little Rock has devised an offensive philosophy that is genuinely new, and it’s winning games left and right.

Coach Kevin Kelley reports that he stopped punting in 2005 — after reading an academic study on the statistical consequences of going for the first down versus handing possession to the other team, plus reading Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s relentless examples of when punting backfires but going for the first down works…

“They give you four downs, not three,” Kelley told TMQ. “You should take advantage. Suppose we had punted from our own 5. The odds are the opposition will take over at about the 35, and from there the stats say they have an 80 percent chance of scoring. So even if you only have a 50 percent chance of converting the first down, isn’t that better than giving the other side an 80 percent chance of scoring? For fourth-and-short attempts, the odds of converting are a lot better than 50 percent.”

Pulaski Academy football featured on ESPN.com | Notes from the Trail
Click to expand...



Just saw this on ESPN NFL films...they really never punt! No matter if it 4th and 30.

And it works! The law of avg is on their side
 
#3
#3
I've read about this before. It could maybe work in middle school/high school ball, but it would be terrible in college.
 
#4
#4
So lemme get this straight...they just do the opposite of what we do? :eek:lol:

But seriously, that's a pretty interesting read.
 
#5
#5
NFL teams convert about 75 percent of fourth-and-1 tries. Yet highly paid professional coaches endlessly send in the punt unit on fourth-and-1, handing a scoring opportunity to the opposition.

ESPN Page 2 - TMQ: State of the Nation
Click to expand...


75% of the time on 4th and 1...so why would you kick the ball to say the Gators...who if they get the ball on their 40 score 76% of the time
 
#7
#7
There's no question that teams punt way, way too much. In general, I would almost never punt on the other team's side of the field. I'd almost always go for it on 4th and 5 or less outside my own 35 or 40. I'd almost always go for it on 4th and 2 or less regardless of where the ball was. (This is just in general -- obviously it would depend on score, time, how good my punter was, how good my defense was, etc.)

Punting the ball from the other team's 40 is like committing a turnover on purpose.
 
#8
#8
There is something to be said for putting pressure on the other team rather than just giving them the ball. There are a few problems with using generic probabilities, though. They do not take into account the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams that are actually playing or the game situation.

Leave it to say that, were I a coach, I would not follow the "never punt" philosophy.
 
#10
#10
How do the chances of pinning a team inside the 10 factor in which in turn raises the chances you get the ball inside their 50 again.
 
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