New Mexico at TCU Prediction w/Analysis
Official 1 UNIT Play courtesy of Right Angle Sports (www.handicapper.net)
Current Record: 8-2 (Documented at NSMonitor.com)
Lines current as of Friday at 11:00am Pacific.
New Mexico (+1.5) at TCU - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #189-190
After three straight second place finishes, many Lobo insiders believe this may be their year to win the Mountain West. Despite a tough loss last week at UTEP, the Lobos at 3-1 are still off to their best start ever under Rocky Long which includes a marquee win at Missouri. Last week at UTEP, New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime. They had forced UTEP to go 3 and out on their first possession of the second half. New Mexico then drove inside the UTEP 20 and appeared ready to take control of the game. On the next play a bad snap led to a 3rd and very long, and on 3rd down UTEP returned an interception for a TD. New Mexico's next possession ended in a punt that was blocked and returned for a TD. Before they knew what had hit them, the Lobos trailed 21-10. They hung in and pulled within 21-13 but could get no closer. The big news of the night was the performance of New Mexico's defense. They are only one of three schools in the country to finish in the top 30 nationally in total defense each of the past 5 seasons. The unit held the high powered UTEP offense to just one offensive touchdown. UTEP is a team that had averaged over 40ppg in their last 9 outings dating back to last season!
After watching junior QB Kole McKamey last season, I felt the New Mexico offense would always be limited with him at the helm, but he was really impressed me with his improved play this year. McKamey is leading the MWC in passing efficiency after finishing last a year ago. He is playing with much more confidence and has developed great chemistry with senior WR and roommate Hank Baskett. They have become one of the best pass catch combinations in the conference. McKamey is also a threat to run and often picks up key first downs with his legs. The improved passing game has taken some pressure off star RB Dontrell Moore who is looking closer to 100% with every game following offseason knee surgery. The Lobos have a big productive offensive line and continue to be one of the top rushing teams in the conference.
TCU is coming off two close overtime wins in conference play. They could just as easily be 0-2 as both games ended with controversial "no-calls" by officials. In last game at BYU, TCU trailed 34-16 in the second half but were able to mount a big comeback thanks to no less than 9 BYU defensive starters leaving the game with injuries! TCU also benefited from +3 turnovers and a 100 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. TCU's defense looked helpless giving up 614 total yards for the game. The Horned Frogs suffered a significant injury of their own, losing senior QB Tye Gunn to a shoulder injury. He is listed as doubtful this week and junior Jeff Ballard will make his first career start. I always look to play against teams who are starting an inexperienced QB against New Mexico's confusing blitzing schemes. BYU runs a similar defensive scheme now, but they are not nearly as fast or as effective as New Mexico is in it. UNM was tied for second in the nation with 42 sacks last year and already have 11 this year. Even with last weeks 50 point game at BYU, TCU still ranks only 9th in the MWC in total offense and will now be without their starting QB.
TCU's game at BYU last week lasted 4 hours and 42 minutes. The team has to feel some effects of the emotional and physical roller coaster they have been on this season. New Mexico has always played better in the second halves of seasons and in conference play under Rocky Long. The Lobos are 26-12 ATS in final 7 games of the season since 2000. They are 10-2 ATS in last 12 conference road games and 10-3 ATS in last 13 as a road dog overall! They are also 9-4 ATS since 2002 off a straight up loss. All signs point to the Lobos here.
Official Play: New Mexico +1.5 1 UNIT
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Good luck! :focus:
Official 1 UNIT Play courtesy of Right Angle Sports (www.handicapper.net)
Current Record: 8-2 (Documented at NSMonitor.com)
Lines current as of Friday at 11:00am Pacific.
New Mexico (+1.5) at TCU - 4:00pm Pacific - Game #189-190
After three straight second place finishes, many Lobo insiders believe this may be their year to win the Mountain West. Despite a tough loss last week at UTEP, the Lobos at 3-1 are still off to their best start ever under Rocky Long which includes a marquee win at Missouri. Last week at UTEP, New Mexico led 10-7 at halftime. They had forced UTEP to go 3 and out on their first possession of the second half. New Mexico then drove inside the UTEP 20 and appeared ready to take control of the game. On the next play a bad snap led to a 3rd and very long, and on 3rd down UTEP returned an interception for a TD. New Mexico's next possession ended in a punt that was blocked and returned for a TD. Before they knew what had hit them, the Lobos trailed 21-10. They hung in and pulled within 21-13 but could get no closer. The big news of the night was the performance of New Mexico's defense. They are only one of three schools in the country to finish in the top 30 nationally in total defense each of the past 5 seasons. The unit held the high powered UTEP offense to just one offensive touchdown. UTEP is a team that had averaged over 40ppg in their last 9 outings dating back to last season!
After watching junior QB Kole McKamey last season, I felt the New Mexico offense would always be limited with him at the helm, but he was really impressed me with his improved play this year. McKamey is leading the MWC in passing efficiency after finishing last a year ago. He is playing with much more confidence and has developed great chemistry with senior WR and roommate Hank Baskett. They have become one of the best pass catch combinations in the conference. McKamey is also a threat to run and often picks up key first downs with his legs. The improved passing game has taken some pressure off star RB Dontrell Moore who is looking closer to 100% with every game following offseason knee surgery. The Lobos have a big productive offensive line and continue to be one of the top rushing teams in the conference.
TCU is coming off two close overtime wins in conference play. They could just as easily be 0-2 as both games ended with controversial "no-calls" by officials. In last game at BYU, TCU trailed 34-16 in the second half but were able to mount a big comeback thanks to no less than 9 BYU defensive starters leaving the game with injuries! TCU also benefited from +3 turnovers and a 100 yard kickoff return for a touchdown. TCU's defense looked helpless giving up 614 total yards for the game. The Horned Frogs suffered a significant injury of their own, losing senior QB Tye Gunn to a shoulder injury. He is listed as doubtful this week and junior Jeff Ballard will make his first career start. I always look to play against teams who are starting an inexperienced QB against New Mexico's confusing blitzing schemes. BYU runs a similar defensive scheme now, but they are not nearly as fast or as effective as New Mexico is in it. UNM was tied for second in the nation with 42 sacks last year and already have 11 this year. Even with last weeks 50 point game at BYU, TCU still ranks only 9th in the MWC in total offense and will now be without their starting QB.
TCU's game at BYU last week lasted 4 hours and 42 minutes. The team has to feel some effects of the emotional and physical roller coaster they have been on this season. New Mexico has always played better in the second halves of seasons and in conference play under Rocky Long. The Lobos are 26-12 ATS in final 7 games of the season since 2000. They are 10-2 ATS in last 12 conference road games and 10-3 ATS in last 13 as a road dog overall! They are also 9-4 ATS since 2002 off a straight up loss. All signs point to the Lobos here.
Official Play: New Mexico +1.5 1 UNIT
Get free plays with analysis all season long! Visit www.handicapper.net and join the mailing list!
Good luck! :focus:
