New poll: its Newt's turn ....

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
CNN Poll: Gingrich soars, Cain drops – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Cain dropped 11 points in the last two weeks. Majority believes the women accusers and a third of GOP voters think he should quit.

Romney can't do better than 25 %. Ever. Just amazing how he is so flat-lined despite all the upheaval.

And so the only one left is Newt, and he predictably therefore becomes the anti-Romney candidate, with 22 % to Romney's 24 %, effectively a tie.

Wonder what the over/under is going to be for how long Newt can stay up in the top anti- Romney spot? I'll go with 4 weeks, because as soon as Romney sees Newt as a viable threat, the public is going to be reminded of all of his ... excesses.
 
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Yes...Newt is rising, and Cain is falling! It'll be easier to dismiss Reps as racists again.
 
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nbakerld said:
Yes...Newt is rising, and Cain is falling! It'll be easier to dismiss Reps as racists again.
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No, I don't think race has much to do with it, if anything. Its the way he handled it -- made it seem true. Which makes his denials all the more problematic.

But now we will move to Newt, who has more baggage than a flight from New York to Orlando.
 
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Yeah. I can't believe my parents are starting to say Romney and Newt look great. They are so desperate for a Republican not named Paul, but they hated McCain, Bush, Dole, Bush....I don't really get it.
 
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lawgator1 said:
CNN Poll: Gingrich soars, Cain drops – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Cain dropped 11 points in the last two weeks. Majority believes the women accusers and a third of GOP voters think he should quit.

Romney can't do better than 25 %. Ever. Just amazing how he is so flat-lined despite all the upheaval.

And so the only one left is Newt, and he predictably therefore becomes the anti-Romney candidate, with 22 % to Romney's 24 %, effectively a tie.

Wonder what the over/under is going to be for how long Newt can stay up in the top anti- Romney spot? I'll go with 4 weeks, because as soon as Romney sees Newt as a viable threat, the public is going to be reminded of all of his ... excesses.
Click to expand...

I'll take that bet. You seem to be implying that Newt's rise in popularity has been primarily as a result of others falling in the polls. While I'm not denying that is a factor, I think most would agree that Newt has also won or performed at the top of every single debate. I'll take Newt with his baggage over Obama any day, and if given the opportunity can't wait to see them head to head in a few debates.
 
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nbakerld said:
Yeah. I can't believe my parents are starting to say Romney and Newt look great. They are so desperate for a Republican not named Paul, but they hated McCain, Bush, Dole, Bush....I don't really get it.
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Surely you're not comparing Newt to any of those others?
 
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nbakerld said:
He's much better on the stage. What's the difference in policy?
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Drastically more conservative and is a small government type. Is also legitimately intellectual, as opposed to the other garbage you listed.
 
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nbakerld said:
So was Woodrow Wilson. I don't consider him to be more conservative. It's hard to say somebody who favors individual mandates for health care is conservative at all, IMO.

Gingrich Backs Obamacare's Individual Mandate Requiring Health Insurance
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I didn't say he's an intellectual or an academic like Wilson. I said he's intellectual. He's not the pseudo version like Obama. He has convictions about governance and they're well thought out and he'll pursue them. I don't see him as a polling style politician.
 
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lawgator1 said:
CNN Poll: Gingrich soars, Cain drops – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

Cain dropped 11 points in the last two weeks. Majority believes the women accusers and a third of GOP voters think he should quit.

Romney can't do better than 25 %. Ever. Just amazing how he is so flat-lined despite all the upheaval.

And so the only one left is Newt, and he predictably therefore becomes the anti-Romney candidate, with 22 % to Romney's 24 %, effectively a tie.

Wonder what the over/under is going to be for how long Newt can stay up in the top anti- Romney spot? I'll go with 4 weeks, because as soon as Romney sees Newt as a viable threat, the public is going to be reminded of all of his ... excesses.
Click to expand...

The misleading conclusion in this analysis is that Romney is only liked by a fraction of the Rs. In truth, he is the most popular overall second to Cain

Mitt Romney's positioning among Republicans remains fairly stable. His Positive Intensity Score of 13 is broadly similar to what it has been all year. Romney is generally well-liked by Republicans -- his 66% total favorable rating is second only to Cain's. But Romney still does not receive strongly favorable opinions from large numbers of Republicans.
Click to expand...

Cain Catching Up With GOP Rivals in Recognition

While Romney is not the first choice for many - he is viewed as an acceptable choice by most.

I still see him emerging as the nominee and given how bad Obama is; I see him gaining strong support among Rs and Is.
 
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BigPapaVol said:
I didn't say he's an intellectual or an academic like Wilson. I said he's intellectual. He's not the pseudo version like Obama. He has convictions about governance and they're well thought out and he'll pursue them. I don't see him as a polling style politician.
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I would appreciate that more if he were truly conservative. I'd rather have a polling style politician than one with the wrong convictions.
 
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nbakerld said:
I would appreciate that more if he were truly conservative. I'd rather have a polling style politician than one with the wrong convictions.
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what are his wrong convictions? He can't earnestly believe that a good solution is a healthcare system that requires everyone to pay, so that we can avoid the adverse selection problem? He can actually believe this and still be conservative.
 
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IBlvNTmWrk said:
I'll take that bet. You seem to be implying that Newt's rise in popularity has been primarily as a result of others falling in the polls. While I'm not denying that is a factor, I think most would agree that Newt has also won or performed at the top of every single debate. I'll take Newt with his baggage over Obama any day, and if given the opportunity can't wait to see them head to head in a few debates.
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Well, first, I think that Romney is still likely to win. He has tons more money that Newt, and you also have to remember that no one has really targeted him and his problems. That will begin and be relentless if he has any traction moving forward.

Second, I agree that debates between Newt and Obama would be interesting. Newt's brusque style, however, might wear thin fairly early on.


BigPapaVol said:
Drastically more conservative and is a small government type. Is also legitimately intellectual, as opposed to the other garbage you listed.
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He is very smart. But to some degree irascible and intolerant. He is dismissive and arrogant of other points of view. A bit of a know-it-all in demeanor.


volinbham said:
The misleading conclusion in this analysis is that Romney is only liked by a fraction of the Rs. In truth, he is the most popular overall second to Cain



Cain Catching Up With GOP Rivals in Recognition

While Romney is not the first choice for many - he is viewed as an acceptable choice by most.

I still see him emerging as the nominee and given how bad Obama is; I see him gaining strong support among Rs and Is.
Click to expand...


The issue isn't where Romney is in the list, its that he can't get any more support, even though he keeps coming out of the debates pretty much unscathed.

Translation: You are dead wrong. He is disliked by a majority of Republicans and strongly disliked by a fair number of them. They'll hold their noses and vote for him to get rid of Obama, but that's it.
 
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lawgator1 said:
Translation: You are dead wrong. He is disliked by a majority of Republicans and strongly disliked by a fair number of them. They'll hold their noses and vote for him to get rid of Obama, but that's it.
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The polling data directly contradicts your claim but since you can read minds I guess we'll go with your view.

Here's another poll showing you're wrong.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_...ility-falls-behind-romney-after-scandal-poll/

In the Ipsos online poll, Cain fell behind Romney, who garnered a 63 percent favorability rating among Republicans, while Texas Gov. Rick Perry took 47 percent.
Click to expand...

Romney currently at highest favorability among Republicans
 
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volinbham said:
The polling data directly contradicts your claim but since you can read minds I guess we'll go with your view.
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that Voldemort / Potter style link he has with Joe Sixer must be freaking invaluable. Wonder why he can't get laid - by a female?
 
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BigPapaVol said:
what are his wrong convictions? He can't earnestly believe that a good solution is a healthcare system that requires everyone to pay, so that we can avoid the adverse selection problem? He can actually believe this and still be conservative.
Click to expand...

You said he was a "small-government type" (which traditionally means conservative). In what way is he small government if he believes government has the right to force people to buy health care?
 
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Translation: You are dead wrong. He is disliked by a majority of Republicans and strongly disliked by a fair number of them. They'll hold their noses and vote for him to get rid of Obama, but that's it.
Click to expand...

lawgator1 said:
RealClearPolitics - Poll: Gingrich Leads, Romney Falls to Third

Romney's favorability rating within the GOP is 48 percent. 39 percent are flat out unfavorable to him.
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Let's try this again - you claim the majority of Republicans dislike Romney. Through 3 polls we see the highest unfavorable at 39% and the lowest at %34%. Where I went to school, 34-39% is not the majority.

On the other hand, 2 polls show him at nearly 2/3rds favorability and 1 shows him at 1/2 favorability - somehow that translates to the majority disliking him.

NOTE: Interesting that the article lists favorable, unfavorable but you've decided to label them favorable and "flat-out" unfavorable. Wouldn't both be "flat-out"?
 
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nbakerld said:
You said he was a "small-government type" (which traditionally means conservative). In what way is he small government if he believes government has the right to force people to buy health care?
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forcing people to buy healthcare isn't necessarily enlarging government and can shrink it. There is, without a doubt, an adverse selection problem in healthcare and as we move away from the employer model that we've lived with for so long, we'll have to do something as rolls shrink and more opt out. Healthcare would likely be cheaper for everyone if even those healthy chose to participate. It would be more expensive in the near term for those paying in and underutilizing the care, but the long term would suit everyone. I'm not advocating the position, but do understand how someone could come that conclusion and still not believe in big government.
 
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volinbham said:
Let's try this again - you claim the majority of Republicans dislike Romney. Through 3 polls we see the highest unfavorable at 39% and the lowest at %34%. Where I went to school, 1/3 is not the majority.

On the other hand, 2 polls show him at nearly 2/3rds favorability and 1 shows him at 1/2 favorability - somehow that translates to the majority disliking him.
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Ok, I should not have said "disliked."

If the best the GOP can do is find someone that a third actually affirmatively dislikes and who cant even wrangle a slight majority favorability rating, pretty weak.
 
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lawgator1 said:
Ok, I should not have said "disliked."

If the best the GOP can do is find someone that a third actually affirmatively dislikes and who cant even wrangle a slight majority favorability rating, pretty weak.
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but the favorability stuff is silliness at this point. You're talking about social conservatives who love to vote their Bibles, but aren't going to skip an election and aren't about to ever vote for the liberals.
 
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BigPapaVol said:
forcing people to buy healthcare isn't necessarily enlarging government and can shrink it. There is, without a doubt, an adverse selection problem in healthcare and as we move away from the employer model that we've lived with for so long, we'll have to do something as rolls shrink and more opt out. Healthcare would likely be cheaper for everyone if even those healthy chose to participate. It would be more expensive in the near term for those paying in and underutilizing the care, but the long term would suit everyone. I'm not advocating the position, but do understand how someone could come that conclusion and still not believe in big government.
Click to expand...

It's very short-sighted. I can't really come up with a scenario in which this would shrink government (it may lower HC costs like you say, but I doubt that). Even if it did, the precedent set is that government can basically force us to do anything. You have widened the scope and power of the government if they can force people to buy a private good. So it's a huge stretch to say this could shrink government in health care, and it will lead to expansion in other areas.
 
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