North Korea Vows to Use Nuclear Weapons if Attacked

#5
#5
I was talking to a family member over the weekend and asked about a cousin I had not seen in about 6 to 7 years, turns out he's in South Korea right now.

The only way war is sparked is if the north commits another provocative act, similar to the fairly recent sinking of a South Korean vessel. The question is do you think North Korea would be so bold to take another similar action?
 
#6
#6
North Korea has, what, 3 low-yield weapons at most? It would suck to holy hell if they dropped those on South Korea, but that would be their end. There is no way that China or the Russians actually defend their escalation to nuclear arms. Regardless, that is the purpose of the deterrent. They can feel fairly confident that they won't be pushed to the point where they fear for the survival of their country at the hands of American forces ... if so, then what do they have to lose in dropping what they have?
 
#7
#7
KB5252 said:
The only way war is sparked is if the north commits another provocative act, similar to the fairly recent sinking of a South Korean vessel. The question is do you think North Korea would be so bold to take another similar action?
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IMO their country is in such bad shape that they will eventually have no choice. Not sure on the time frame but I don't think it's out of the question by any means
 
#9
#9
That equation doesn't end well. So, if NK is in a position where they can't help but push, where does that leave SK/us? If we push back, and they are indeed at the end of their ability to survive, then why not unleash their arsenal? That puts us in an interesting position with regard to what we are willing to do in response to any provocative action by NK.
 
#11
#11
utvolpj said:
IMO their country is in such bad shape that they will eventually have no choice. Not sure on the time frame but I don't think it's out of the question by any means
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They realize China is at best a loose ally, they will offer some help in keeping America from getting any more of a foothold in the region, North Korea needs more, when Kim Jong Ill sees his end is near I believe he pushes the button and authorizes war with the south. He doesn't think his son can hold control of the country, neither do I.
 
#13
#13
China may be a stronger ally to NK than you guys give credit. They really don't give a rats @ss about NK but they really do not want a SK country, friendly to the US on their border.
 
#14
#14
MontereyVol said:
China may be a stronger ally to NK than you guys give credit. They really don't give a rats @ss about NK but they really do not want a SK country, friendly to the US on their border.
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maybe I'm naive but I just don't see China stepping in if NK goes bombs out and attacks SK (and US forces in the process) with their full arsenal. Even they would have to realize we are well within our rights to retaliate
 
#15
#15
utvolpj said:
maybe I'm naive but I just don't see China stepping in if NK goes bombs out and attacks SK (and US forces in the process) with their full arsenal. Even they would have to realize we are well within our rights to retaliate
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It would be an interesting situation, I would think China would jump into the war and try a Russian style land grab like they did in WWII of eastern Europe.

On the other hand we don't know how far China will go to protect its interests either? A lot of foreign countries still think we won't push the button and we may not for NK but we would for China.
 
#16
#16
I have always had the tin foil hat on in respect to China pulling NK's strings. For some reason I think that China has some part in NK's bolstering of nukes.
 
#17
#17
MontereyVol said:
China may be a stronger ally to NK than you guys give credit. They really don't give a rats @ss about NK but they really do not want a SK country, friendly to the US on their border.
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Exactly. They like the cushion of NK and the Yalu.
 
#18
#18
MontereyVol said:
China may be a stronger ally to NK than you guys give credit. They really don't give a rats @ss about NK but they really do not want a SK country, friendly to the US on their border.
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While I definitely see that, I don't see China jumping in to defend NK's nuclear first-strike of SK. They would still get their buffer zone, after NK becomes a radioactive wasteland.

If we're talking about China backing NK in a conventional invasion, that's another story. I just don't see China being in a position to support NK's nuclear strike.
 
#19
#19
TennTradition said:
While I definitely see that, I don't see China jumping in to defend NK's nuclear first-strike of SK. They would still get their buffer zone, after NK becomes a radioactive wasteland.

If we're talking about China backing NK in a conventional invasion, that's another story. I just don't see China being in a position to support NK's nuclear strike.
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I don't think China supports NK if it just wantonly goes on the offensive. I don't think they can do that and remain a viable international voice.
 
#22
#22
TennTradition said:
While I definitely see that, I don't see China jumping in to defend NK's nuclear first-strike of SK. They would still get their buffer zone, after NK becomes a radioactive wasteland.

If we're talking about China backing NK in a conventional invasion, that's another story. I just don't see China being in a position to support NK's nuclear strike.
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I'm not so sure we would Nuke them in response? They would have to successfully detonate what they have on SK, Japan or the US Navy for us to respond in that fashion.

I have no doubt they would launch, I have serious doubts to guidance systems and detonators.
 
#23
#23
MontereyVol said:
I'm not so sure we would Nuke them in response? They would have to successfully detonate what they have on SK, Japan or the US Navy for us to respond in that fashion.

I have no doubt they would launch, I have serious doubts to guidance systems and detonators.
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How good does their guidance system need to be for a non-conventional strike on SK? As for detonators, I don't know..can't say.

I agree, in general, though. When I say a nuclear first-strike on SK, I mean a successful one. The ONLY way the US goes nuclear on them is if they have successful detonation(s) in SK or on US forces (or, likely, Japan).
 
#24
#24
All talk, regimes like North Korea care about only one thing and that is self-preservation. Still if we get involved in Korea again its going to bloody and I doubt we'll have the stomach to fight such a war. If you thought Iraq was bad wait till you see what would happen in a new Korean war. Even there was a war the Chinese would likely enter again, they don't want a united Korea with a Western democracy on its border.
 
#25
#25
TennTradition said:
How good does their guidance system need to be for a non-conventional strike on SK? As for detonators, I don't know..can't say.

I agree, in general, though. When I say a nuclear first-strike on SK, I mean a successful one. The ONLY way the US goes nuclear on them is if they have successful detonation(s) in SK or on US forces (or, likely, Japan).
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What if it only had the power of a dirty bomb? Some people are not quite convinced they can even detonate an actual A bomb just yet?

When firing at a naval fleet or at a target far off like Japan they would probably need a half way decent guidance system.

But your right, close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades.
 
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