Not an Auspicious SEC Start; Bottom 2 Among Power 5

[VFL-82-JP]

If you had to judge the entire 2016 season by just its first week, here's one startling conclusion: The SEC is one of the weakest Power 5 conferences.

Three of the P5 won two-thirds of their P5-versus-P5 matchups this weekend. Two won less than half. The SEC, at 3-4, is one of the latter two.

Counting not just P5 but all OOC games against teams big and small, four of the five conferences had a win percentage above 50%--from the B10 at 86% (12-2) to the PAC at 58% (7-5). The SEC was the only Power 5 conference at the even mark (6-6, 50%).

If you wanted to haggle over who's worse between the SEC and PAC, you could go either way. The P5-v-P5 results point one direction, the v-all-OOC outcomes the other way. Here's the full tally:

No single weekend worth of games is ever conclusive, so it is not yet time to talk about how the SEC has fallen (though you can bet your bottom dollar that some sports writers and reporters, and a LOT of fan blogs, will do just that).

But as a data point, as one entry in a season that stretches out ahead of us for another dozen weekends, it is not an auspicious first indicator.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

2 years ago they said the Big 10 was dead after a bad week 2.

Ohio State won the natty.

Way to early to make any broad claims. It was a bad week. Nothing more.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Another thing to keep in mind as we chew on this nasty first weekend: we're almost halfway through our OOC Power 5 versus Power 5 slate for the regular season.

Yes, it's just the first weekend, but most teams front-load their OOC opponents in the schedule. The SEC has a total of 56 OOC games this season; we've already played 12 of them. That's almost a quarter of the way done.

Even more significantly, the SEC only has 14 P5-v-P5 games all season (15 if you count Miss State's game with BYU), and we've already played 7 of them. That's about halfway.

So it's still early days, yes, but not as early as "one weekend out of twelve" might make you think. Almost half of our regular season chances to claim Best of Power Five are gone. The conference is 3-4.

Here's hoping that improves significantly in the remaining OOC P5 games.

 

[mdrew27]

Tennessee, the work horse of the SEC

 

[VolNRaleighNC]

Only thing else I would have liked to have seen is Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M all lose week 1. We got a W. END. OF. STORY.

 

[Madscientistvol]

"Who has the best conference?"

It's a question that is unanswerable even by comparing OOC games. Auburn took it to the wire as an unranked team against the #2 team in the country, Ole Miss had the #4 team on the ropes until an epic comeback, Bama spanked USCw, A&M upset UCLA, UGA won its P5 matchup. The only truly bad OOC P5 loss was LSU's.

The OOC against the P5 teams didn't go so bad in regards to what the actual match ups were. It's how the SEC played against non-P5 teams that's embarrassing.

All that said, there are too few P5 OOC match ups and they are not all based on level within their conference for it to be an accurate gauge. Unless you have top SEC teams vs top non-SEC teams and bottom vs bottom I don't see how it really gauges who has the best conference.

And any SEC homer that says our bottom teams would run through other conferences with ease is full of it.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Madscientist, everything you say is true.

And yet, people WILL try to figure out which conference is better. Not only is it human nature, it helps decide "tie breaker" questions like those the CFP Committee faces every year. In that sense, these "unanswerable" questions are nonetheless very important. And so, folks will do their best to answer them.

If you expect fans of the B10 or PAC to take the time to look in detail at how the SEC got to 3-4 vs other Power 5 conference opponents, you'll be left waiting a long time. Fact is, they have a narrative they wish to pursue. And now they have data that supports it. And yes, some of those with an anti-SEC narrative are voters in the polls ... and even CFP committee members (though none of the latter would openly acknowledge that).

---break/break---

There are three ways to figure out which conference is better using on-field results:

1. Regular season matchups (15 v P5, 56 v all OOC for the SEC in 2016).
2. Bowls (usually about 10 for the SEC, mostly v P5).
3. Playoffs (when the SEC gets in).

We're about 1/4 (v all OOC) to 1/2 (v P5) of the way through the first method.

Thing is, it's the ONLY method available to the CFP when time comes for them to pick the 4 teams who make it into the playoffs. Only 4 conferences, at most, can get a team in. If Houston runs the table (and gets help from Oklahoma recovering and doing well the rest of the season), that may be down to 3 P5 conferences.

Every year, at least one conference gets left out. The CFP are human; they've already left the B12 and PAC out. Knowing how high the SEC usually rides, they will (at least sub-consciously) see opportunity if the SEC has a down year to "give them their turn" on the outside.

Based on the 1/4 to 1/2 of our OOC slate that has been played, this could be that year.

Sure, an SEC team that runs the table and gets to 13-0 after Atlanta is going to be in. That's not in doubt.

The question comes if it's a 12-1 SEC champ, and there are a handful of other 13-0 and 12-1 P5 teams around.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

"Who has the best conference?"

It's a question that is unanswerable even by comparing OOC games. Auburn took it to the wire as an unranked team against the #2 team in the country, Ole Miss had the #4 team on the ropes until an epic comeback, Bama spanked USCw, A&M upset UCLA, UGA won its P5 matchup. The only truly bad OOC P5 loss was LSU's.

I agree with Madscientist. It looks bad on the surface, until you actually look at the match-ups, and the SEC was expected to lose 4 - 5 of these P5 matchups. Two of the games were played against top 5 teams considered national title contenders (Clemson v Auburn, FSU v Ole Miss). Auburn actually played Clemson closer than anticipated, as well. Texas A&M was expected to lose, but won. UGA-UNC was considered a toss-up game and UGA won. Missouri was expected to lose. The only real disappointment was LSU, but even that game was on the road against a quality opponent. Overall, I think the SEC came out about as expected against the P5 schools given the match-ups. It's the games against G5 opponents that were bad; particularly the Miss State and Kentucky losses.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I agreed with Madscientist, too. And yet, as explained, that may not make a bit of difference.

 

[volfanhill]

The SEC was the only conference to win against 3 top 25 teams. It was also the only conference to play 5 top 25 opponents.

 

[05_never_again]

One thing that SEC haters have said for about 7 years now is that you have Alabama at the top and a bunch of jock riders after that.

That narrative has started to become more true in the last year or so. They've been saying it for a long time, and even a broken clock is right twice a day. It was a patently absurd thing to say when in addition to Alabama you also had Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn in the mix for SEC/national titles, but it is more true now. The conference is nowhere near as deep as it was 5 years ago.

The deepest conference last year and probably again this year is the Pac 12, although the Pac 12 might have had the roughest Week 1 out of any conference. UCLA and USC both lost to SEC schools, Washington State lost to an FCS school (for the second year in a row!), Arizona lost to BYU, Oregon State lost to Minnesota.