Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

#1
notverycrucial

notverycrucial

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#1
Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win - Yahoo! News

A pollster whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November.

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said Wednesday that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 percent of the popular vote against 45.7 percent for Republican John McCain.

That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Abramowitz said.
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See nothing to worry about.
 
#3
#3
Well that seals it then. Hail hail Obamamessiah, here is my bank account - do what with it you see fit.
 
#9
#9
dickens821 said:
Well then I feel comfortable that the Socialist Who Shall Not Be Named will not be in Office.
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Really? Wouldn't the fact that he called the closest election in recent history correctly make this seem a bit more credible. I mean I can understand not putting any stock into it, but not because of his picking Gore
 
#10
#10
emainvol said:
Really? Wouldn't the fact that he called the closest election in recent history correctly make this seem a bit more credible. I mean I can understand not putting any stock into it, but not because of his picking Gore
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I'm just kidding. I really just put no stock into this guy's unknown method.
 
#13
#13
emainvol said:
Really? Wouldn't the fact that he called the closest election in recent history correctly make this seem a bit more credible. I mean I can understand not putting any stock into it, but not because of his picking Gore
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he has a 50-50 each time and only two of those outcomes were really debatable.

Given that info, he had a 25% of having his record, regardless of which candidate he picked in 2000 and 2004. Additionally, given that one of his picks didn't win the office, he has essentially called one tough race correctly - and he had a 50% chance of being right.

It's a little like me saying that I've called all of the Vandy-UT games correctly for the past 5 years.
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#15
#15
Emain,
I have a little wager for you.

If Obama gets 54% of the popular vote, I move to your house and become your live in maid for one week, free of charge.

He gets under 50%, you do same for me.
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#16
#16
Has he consulted with Mike "Eight is Enough" Hamilton or Coach Phillip Van Patten?
 
#17
#17
Survey SAYS....

family-feud.jpg
 
#19
#19
if obama wins, he'll win without getting 50% of the popular vote. there is no way he'll get 54%.
 
#20
#20
joevol320 said:
if obama wins, he'll win without getting 50% of the popular vote. there is no way he'll get 54%.
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I don't think that it is possible that a democrat could win the electoral college without greater than 50% of the popular vote....unless their is a very, very strong 3rd party candidate who also happens to be libertarian.
 
#21
#21
TennTradition said:
I don't think that it is possible that a democrat could win the electoral college without greater than 50% of the popular vote....unless their is a very, very strong 3rd party candidate who also happens to be libertarian.
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bill did it in his 2nd term.
 
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