Obama has double digit lead over McCain in new poll

[WA_Vol]

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

CNN Political Ticker: All politics, all the time - Blogs from CNN.com

 

[GAVol]

It's going to be interesting to see in the end if these tracking polls accurately reflect Obama's vote totals.

 

[volsforever27]

Wasn't there just a poll showing Obama had a 3-4 point lead? And it was a tie among likely voters? These things are so skewered.

 

[g8terh8ter_eric]

This all happened with Obama before except he was behind Clinton in most polls before surging ahead. McCain did the same with the republican primaries. This is far from over and I expect a less than 1-2% difference around November.

 

[SWIL]

You guys know why any Tenneessean should NOT vote for Obama??

If you put a "G" in front of his name, you spell "GO BAMA".

 

[TennTradition]

You guys know why any Tenneessean should NOT vote for Obama??

If you put a "G" in front of his name, you spell "GO BAMA".

Best reason I've heard yet.....besides the whole "tax the oil companies to pay the energy bills of the lower income" thing.

 

[MG1968]

jimmy carter had a double digit lead at this point in 1980, Gore had a lead, Kerry had a lead.

polling this early proves nothing.

 

[TennNC]

jimmy carter had a double digit lead at this point in 1980, Gore had a lead, Kerry had a lead.

polling this early proves nothing.

well, it proves that amongst voters right now, 15% more favor Obama. unless you don't believe in polls at all.

 

[volsforever27]

well, it proves that amongst voters right now, 15% more favor Obama. unless you don't believe in polls at all.

Depends on who's doing the polling... also if you thinm this won't change, you're nuts.

 

[TennNC]

Depends on what the poll results say.

fyp.

 

[volsforever27]

well, it proves that amongst voters right now, 15% more favor Obama. unless you don't believe in liberal polls at all.

FYP

 

[TennNC]

FYP

when did Bloomberg become liberal?

 

[volsforever27]

when did Bloomberg become liberal?

I was speaking in a general sense. Polls are often twisted, sorry to burst your bubble. Some of the wuestions they ask are amusing.

 

[TennNC]

I was speaking in a general sense. Polls are often twisted, sorry to burst your bubble. Some of the wuestions they ask are amusing.

Okay.

I was speaking in a specific sense, as in this specific poll which clearly proves something (unless you don't believe in it).

 

[BigPapaVol]

Okay.

I was speaking in a specific sense, as in this specific poll which clearly proves something (unless you don't believe in it).

I absolutely do not believe in polling data because it's easily made to be self-fulfilling.

Bloomberg has forever been liberal and the LA Times is probably the most liberal rag in the US, yet somehow you omitted its contribution to the poll results.

I assure yo that I could do two polls tomorrow and ask the same question, yet get completely different results by simply changing the time of day that I call.

 

[jamesd1628]

I absolutely do not believe in polling data because it's easily made to be self-fulfilling.

Bloomberg has forever been liberal and the LA Times is probably the most liberal rag in the US, yet somehow you omitted its contribution to the poll results.

I assure yo that I could do two polls tomorrow and ask the same question, yet get completely different results by simply changing the time of day that I call.

Very clever.

 

[KB5252]

I absolutely do not believe in polling data because it's easily made to be self-fulfilling.

Bloomberg has forever been liberal and the LA Times is probably the most liberal rag in the US, yet somehow you omitted its contribution to the poll results.

I assure yo that I could do two polls tomorrow and ask the same question, yet get completely different results by simply changing the time of day that I call.

Like in the afternoon when working Americans are home?

 

[volinbham]

well, it proves that amongst voters right now, 15% more favor Obama. unless you don't believe in polls at all.

I think using one poll only is misleading. The RCP average is probably a better indicator - currently that is at a 7.3% advantage for Obama. The range is from 3% advantage to Obama to a 15% advantage. That range should indicate that any one poll cannot be viewed as an accurate picture of the current situation.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

One issue too is the difference between statements and actions. It was pretty common for even exit polling to over-estimate the vote for Obama. Not sure if that is in operation now or not.

 

[TennNC]

I absolutely do not believe in polling data because it's easily made to be self-fulfilling.

okay.

 

[MG1968]

Gallup has them tied at 45%. sorry oklavol and TennNC, but like it's been pointed out to you, it depends on the poll and the questions being asked. I'll give more creedence to Gallup over a CNN/Bloomberg poll any day of the week.

Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%

 

[OrangeEmpire]

WORKERS OF THE WORLD UNITE!

 

[BigPapaVol]

okay.

not sure I understand the response, but preliminary polling data of this nature is wrong as often as it's right.

Statistics wizards and wordsmiths can make polls produce any result they seek.

That's why 4 out of 5 dentists surveyed recommend Dentyne.

 

[allvol123]

:lolabove:

 

[WA_Vol]

Gallup has them tied at 45%. sorry oklavol and TennNC, but like it's been pointed out to you, it depends on the poll and the questions being asked. I'll give more creedence to Gallup over a CNN/Bloomberg poll any day of the week.

Gallup Daily: Obama, McCain Tied at 45%

This is the best website for polling data, because it lists all the major polls:

RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

All of them except Gallup show Obama clearly ahead:

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Average 0 Obama +6.9
Gallup Tracking 0 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking +4.0
LA Times/Bloomberg Obama +12.0
Newsweek Obama +15.0
FOX News Obama +4.0
USA TodayObama +6.0

There's nothing wrong with polls, but last year, Giulliani and Hilliary had double digit leads only to lose the nomination. Polls can change quickly.

 

[volsforever27]

This is the best website for polling data, because it lists all the major polls:

RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages

All of them except Gallup show Obama clearly ahead:

General Election: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Average 0 Obama +6.9
Gallup Tracking 0 45 45 Tie
Rasmussen Tracking +4.0
LA Times/Bloomberg Obama +12.0
Newsweek Obama +15.0
FOX News Obama +4.0
USA TodayObama +6.0

According to that, the teo biggest leads are polls from the L.A. Times and Newsweeks. Shocking that they would have such a large lead for Obama. The rest of the polls do not show Obama "clearly ahead', especially when we don't even know what the margin of error is. There's even a tie there.