Obama has to draw an “inside straight” to win

[volmaverick]

Obama has to draw an “inside straight” to win but the cards just aren’t there

".. unskewed polls show Romney leading by 7.8 points.. good reason.

Barack Obama is not winning any group he lost in 2008; not doing better with any group he won and not closing the gap with any group he lost.

“…Barack Obama appears to need three cards for an inside straight to win reelection.

He has the two end “cards”, his Media Cheerleaders ….and the power of incumbency at the other. Filling in the “cards” between them to gain a winning “hand” looks to be beyond Obama’s reach.

Here are the “cards” he needs to fill in his inside straight.

The female vote: he won this group by 13 points in 2008 and now the Battleground Poll (BP) tells us he is trailing with White Women who will make up at least 39% of the Female vote by 9 points.

A nine point lead among the first 39% makes getting to a 50/50 tie a tough job and duplicating a final tally lead of 13 points almost impossible. He’s not pulling this card.

The “Jewish” vote card was one that helped him in 2008. While only 2% of the vote, Jews who are a “canary in the coal mine” indicator gave him 78% of their vote.

No Democrat has ever won the presidency while getting less than 68% of the Jewish vote. Obama is now at 59% with little chance of improving- not much chance of pulling this card.

The Hispanic vote card: In 2008 Obama got 67% of the Hispanic vote. BP reports Romney is getting 40% of the Hispanic vote; so this is another card he won’t pull.

African American card: Black ministers are telling their congregations not vote at all.

young vote : Obama got 66%.. getting 61%.. no help..

Obama has to draw an

Spot On!!

 

[gsvol]

Excellent analysis.

Some other points on battleground states.

Even skewed media polls only have Obama leading by a slim 1 to 4% but not getting 50% of the vote in those polls.

Historically this late in the election, if an incumbent isn't over 50% he won't carry that state in the actual election.

An accurate count of Romney's electorial college vote shows he is pretty sure of about 230 votes and would only need 40 more to win the presidency.

So if he only wins half the battleground states then he is the new president and he may win them all or at least most of them if history is any indicator at all.

Obama is definately behind the eight ball even though you would never know that if you only payed attention to the lame stream media.

BTW, the lame stream is polling less than 50% of the American populace that still consider them credible.

Maybe he should blame Carter since he has mimicked Carter in every way while in office.

Obama seems to be doing well on college campuses and indeed targets them for campaign appearances but of all people they should be the ones who oppose Obama the most.

If they look at their economic future under Obama at all there is no way they should be voting for Obama.

There are 1.3 million less people employed now than when zero took office and median income has fallen 8+%.

And these are supposed to be post recession numbers.

On the other hand when Reagan took over from Carter unemployment was over 10% but in four years Reagan had reduced that number to less than 6% and the economy was growing at about 8.5% annually while currently our economy is growing at a weak 1.5% which is so anemic it needs to be in a clinic.

Or maybe college students should go to a clinic and get a smarts shot.

I'm not sure if that has been developed yet but at least they could go ask for one. that would be a step in the right direction.

 

[bamacheats]

Obama will win because the majority of people are stupid.

 

[orangesparkles]

... you don't actually still believe that Mitt Romney is going to win this election, do you?

Regardless of your political beliefs/how much of a terribly-evil socialist you consinder Obama to be, it should be pretty clear at this point how the election is going to turn out.

 

[PKT_VOL]

... you don't actually still believe that Mitt Romney is going to win this election, do you?

Regardless of your political beliefs/how much of a terribly-evil socialist you consinder Obama to be, it should be pretty clear at this point how the election is going to turn out.

Yes and no.

If the election was today, yes. Obama would win easily.

Things can change though.

If Romney does poorly in the first debate, it is over.

 

[mre1237]

what in the world are you talking about!

 

[GoBigOrangeUT]

Well there you have it. When GS says you made an excellent analysis, you've made it to the big time.

 

[PKT_VOL]

Excellent analysis.

Some other points on battleground states.

Even skewed media polls only have Obama leading by a slim 1 to 4% but not getting 50% of the vote in those polls.

Historically this late in the election, if an incumbent isn't over 50% he won't carry that state in the actual election.

An accurate count of Romney's electorial college vote shows he is pretty sure of about 230 votes and would only need 40 more to win the presidency.

So if he only wins half the battleground states then he is the new president and he may win them all or at least most of them if history is any indicator at all.

Obama is definately behind the eight ball even though you would never know that if you only payed attention to the lame stream media.

BTW, the lame stream is polling less than 50% of the American populace that still consider them credible.

Maybe he should blame Carter since he has mimicked Carter in every way while in office.

Obama seems to be doing well on college campuses and indeed targets them for campaign appearances but of all people they should be the ones who oppose Obama the most.

If they look at their economic future under Obama at all there is no way they should be voting for Obama.

There are 1.3 million less people employed now than when zero took office and median income has fallen 8+%.

And these are supposed to be post recession numbers.

On the other hand when Reagan took over from Carter unemployment was over 10% but in four years Reagan had reduced that number to less than 6% and the economy was growing at about 8.5% annually while currently our economy is growing at a weak 1.5% which is so anemic it needs to be in a clinic.

Or maybe college students should go to a clinic and get a smarts shot.

I'm not sure if that has been developed yet but at least they could go ask for one. that would be a step in the right direction.

You don't seriously believe this do you?

 

[DC_Vol]

... you don't actually still believe that Mitt Romney is going to win this election, do you?

Regardless of your political beliefs/how much of a terribly-evil socialist you consinder Obama to be, it should be pretty clear at this point how the election is going to turn out.

Yes, I honestly believe this.

I know too many die hard Democrats who absolutely will not vote for him again. They may not vote Romney, but they will not vote for Obama. This is saying something since these are Washington, DC lifelong democrats.

Other things that I think will hurt Obama:

1- He will not get the turnout among youth that he did last time. His Hope and Change mantra won a lot of them over in 2008, but the enthusiasm is not there as it was in 08.

2- He will not get the turnout among black voters that he got in 08. Percentages will likely be the same, but actual bodies at the polls will be lower.

3- The Jewish vote is going to harm him in Florida. He'll probably lose about 10% of those that voted for him last time around.

4- Undecided voters generally move away from the incumbent on election day.

This is obviously just my opinion, but I do believe it's true. Of course, Romney could always kill himself in the debates. I think Obama has much more to lose, though.

He's probably at the top of his support cycle right now going into the debates. The Obama campaign has done a very good job of defining Romney early. Romney hasn't helped himself in this area, but the debates present an opportunity to present himself to the masses. And Obama off prompter can produce some strange results.

Those are my thoughts. Hammer away.

 

[lawgator1]

You know, if you had just tried to argue its closer than it appears, you might could sensibly do that. But Claiming Romney is ahead by 7-8 points makes you look like you're flat out high.

 

[Gramps]

You know, if you had just tried to argue its closer than it appears, you might could sensibly do that. But Claiming Romney is ahead by 7-8 points makes you look like you're flat out high.

To reference the name of this thread.

Did you draw an inside straight in Vegas?

 

[dukes_of_maggard]

dumb thread