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How to Bet
Location: Churchill Downs
When: Post time is scheduled for 6:46 p.m. Eastern.
How to watch: Race coverage begins at noon on NBC Sports Network, and at 2:30 on NBC. Bob Costas and Mike Tirico will host NBCs coverage. The coverage will also be streamed on NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.
Length: The race is 1 1/4 miles long.
Weather: The National Weather Service is forecasting an 80 percent chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday, with a high near 69. Precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch are possible. The Derby has been run over a sloppy or muddy track 15 times, including last year.
Who To Bet:
The TLDR version: Mendelssohn Vino Rosso Justify
Live longshots: Enticed, Promises Fulfilled
The point of Derby Day is to drink insane amounts of bourbon, sing My Old Kentucky Home at the top of your lungs, and be sound asleep on the couch by 8:00. So remember, I know nothing, and any predictions herein that resemble actual results are pure coincidence. If you like a horse, for whatever reason, bet it. Did you really need that $2 anyway?
To get you acquainted with the field, lets take a spin through it, in reverse order of interest.
The Ive Always Wanted to Have a Horse Run in the Derby, and Now I Do Division
8. Lone Sailor (50-1) Hes won once in 8 tries, and that was a long time ago. You could make the argument that hes improving (hes working well over the Churchill track), but there are 20 horses in this race, and you have to start throwing them out somewhere. This is my somewhere.
10. My Boy Jack (30-1) Not my boy. He isnt very fast, doesnt usually win, and is coming off a short layoff from a tough race. Otherwise, this is a great idea.
13. Bravazo (50-1) His best win was as a long shot; otherwise, he hasnt done much. Not seeing it.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1) The jockey is Robby Albarado. Ill quote my daughters favorite phrase on this one: Nope, nope, nope, nope, nooooooo. Under no circumstances will a Robby Albarado-ridden horse have my money on him (he hates me, I hate him were both good with that). Next.
15. Instilled Regard (50-1) Congrats on making the derby. Enjoy the free cocktails in the owners box.
1. Firenze Fire (50-1) If this race were run last October, he might have a legitimate shot. But (checks calendar). . . nope, its not last October. As a 2-year old, he beat Good Magic, Enticed, and Free Drop Billy, but since then, hes not really gotten any better. I dont think the mile and a quarter suits him (he hasnt been running on at the end of any of the prep races hes really a sprinter), and hes in the dreaded 1-hole. Pass.
20. Combatant (50-1) Not sure hes going to love the distance, and hes not really impressed in any of his preps. He hasnt disgraced himself (hitting the board every time out), but theres nothing in his form that makes me think hes actually got a shot to win this. But if you want to take a stab, vaya con Dios.
The If You Really, Really Squint, I Guess You Can See It Division
4. Flameaway (30-1) This is a solid horse, who should have a nice career, but I dont think is good enough to compete here. Hell run an honest race, and deserves his shot at it hes won 5 times. And his best, if everything breaks perfectly, is probably enough to hit the board he did finish 2nd to Good Magic in the Blue Grass. But I still think its a stretch. This horse screams 11th place finisher to me.
17. Solomini (30-1) He was really solid at 2, but has been mediocre at 3. Kinda runs like a spaz, but there is some talent there. If he puts it all together, he could hit the board, but Ill go elsewhere for my live longshots.
19. Noble Indy (30-1) He doesnt like to leave the gate, and breaking out of the 19 hole, could find himself far behind early. Not sure he has the ability to make up that much ground. Hes not a bad horse, and 30-1 is more than fair, but it feels like he might hear his name called at the start, and then never again.
9. Hofburg (20-1) Coming off a second to Audible in the Florida Derby, where he was clearly better than the rest after a crummy trip (but clearly not as good as Audible). Like Justify, hes only raced 3 times, so experience is an issue. Bill Mott is the trainer hes great, and he wouldnt run a Derby entrant if he didnt think he had a shot. You have to believe he will get better, but maybe this is just a step too far right now. Hes a son of Tapit, my all-time favorite horse, so Ill use him somewhere for sentimental reasons. 20-1 is a bit short, though.
The These Guys Are Good, Just Not for Me Division
11. Bolt dOro (8-1) You know how something can be talked about as being underrated so much, that they actually end up overrated? I think Bolt dOro is becoming that horse. He was really good at 2, then a lackluster (but certainly not terrible) 3-year old campaign has taken a lot of the shine off him. He ran 2nd to Justify in the Santa Anita, and it was a good effort. But perhaps he was just an early bloomer, and his best days are behind him (hey, it happens to us all). Theres a lot of buzz about him this week, and he will probably be the wise guy horse for this race (some guy with a vowel at the end of his name will have a tip from a guy who knows a guy), and he absolutely has a chance to hit the board, even win this. But unless he magically discovers his form from last year, hes a cut below. Be careful of taking short odds on a horse like that.
16. Magnum Moon (6-1) One of our unraced-at-2 horses. If I had to pick one (Justify or Magnum Moon), I think Justify is better. Moons results are nothing to sneeze at hes won all 4 times hes raced, from different spots but he really showed his inexperience in the Arkansas Derby by drifting all the way over the track. He wont be able to do that in Louisville and win. Not sure the horses he beat in Arkansas were that great though Quip, who is skipping the Derby for the Preakness, is decent so I cant see 6-1. Wouldnt shock me, but doesnt get my sugars up.
5. Audible (8-1) I want to like this horse more than I do. Hes improved steadily since his debut, and his last two wins in Florida (Holy Bull, Florida Derby) were very solid. Hes won from off the pace, and near the lead. He should be fit coming into the race. So why cant I get on his bandwagon? I dont think hes really beaten anyone in Florida that group seems a cut below the rest. His works are meh, and his regular jockey, Johnny Velazquez, chose to ride Vino Rosso instead. Plus, I think his odds are too short. Give me 10-1 or more, and I might reconsider. But for now, leaving him out. Good horse, though.
The Youre Dang Right Theyre on My Tickets at Those Odds Division
3. Promises Fulfilled (30-1) Hmmm. . . heres a live long shot. Lets see, hes beaten Good Magic this year, will likely get the lead, dumped Robby Albarado as his jockey for this one (yay!), is the son of Shackleford who got me PAID in the 2011 Preakness, has a win over this track, and, as noted, will pay you 30 American dollars for every buck you bet on him. But you need to ignore some ugliness though if he gets into a speed duel, hes likely cooked, and will all the speed in this race let him get an easy lead? His last prep was a horror show (he was so far behind, they about had to pull him off the track so they could set up for the next race), and outside of his win over Good Magic, theres not a lot of quality there. An interesting flyer, though.
12. Enticed (30-1) I am. . . Enticed. Hes hit the board in 4 out of 5 graded stakes, and he was the favorite in 3 of them so everyone recognizes his talent, and hes delivered. So why the long odds? He just may not be fast enough. But I think hes improving, and his second last out in the Wood was solid. If hes anywhere near these odds, hes going on my tickets somewhere.
The Heres Where Im Thinking Serious Cash Division
6. Good Magic (12-1) Ah, our aforementioned 2-year old champion. The weaknesses first his first race as a 3-year old was a bit of a dud, and he worked really hard to beat Flameaway in the Blue Grass, who I dont think is that great. Thats all true. But. . . he was clearly the best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall to win the 2-year old honors. Hes steadily improved this year after the layoff, and the 3rd race in a cycle is classic for being the one at which a horse peaks. His sire Curlin shows he can get the distance, and he doesnt need the lead (or a ridiculous pace) to score. I think 12-1 is a steal on this horse. Should be sitting right off the lead when they turn for home, and have a great shot and getting home. Hes definitely going in my supers, and I can absolutely see him winning this.
7. Justify (3-1) Holy schniekees, this horse is fast. If youre betting on the winner of a race, fast is good. Real good. Hes also huge. Hes the horse equivalent of an NFL defensive end a unique combination of speed and strength. The Bengals should draft him, though hed probably get suspended shortly thereafter. But I digress. Heres where I start overthinking this race: hes only had 3 races, none at age 2. Lets talk about the Curse of Apollo for a second its not that its some mystical thing like a billy goat. Its just that asking a horse to go from never racing, to winning one of the toughest races in the world, in the matter of a few months, is a big ask. How will he deal with the crowd? Does he have the seasoning to deal with cavalry charge to start the race, and the stamina to withstand multiple challenges? Curlin, one of the great horses of all time, couldnt do it. I just cant see the value at 3-1. But when he wins, and Im looking at all my losing tickets saying I should have just bet on the fastest horse, feel free to tell me you told me so.
18. Vino Rosso (12-1) I like this horse. A lot. He ran a great race in the Wood Memorial, which was the first time he ran with blinkers. In his prior efforts, he seemed distracted, so this was probably a good equipment change. Turned in an absolute bullet in his last work at Churchill, so hes in great form. Gets Johnny V, who had his pick of Derby mounts. And I know a certain person who picks based on name will want to bet on him (Hi, honey!). Great value at 12-1.
14. Mendelssohn (5-1) If Justify is the fastest horse in this race, Mendelssohn is not far behind, if hes behind at all. He won his last race the UAE Derby by 18.5 lengths. You have arguably the best trainer and jockey in the world Aidan OBrien and Ryan Moore in his corner. Hes got no problem with the distance (the UAE Derby was only a 1/16th shorter than the Derby), and he should be able to adapt to any pace. There will be one piece of late breaking information to add to this puzzle Rayya, the horse who ran 2nd in the UAE Derby, is running today (Friday) in the Kentucky Oaks. If she runs credibly, that flatters Mendelssohns performance immensely. The only knock on him is where his last prep was Dubai. Horses coming out of that race have never run well at the Derby (last year, Thunder Snow, who I kinda liked, decided to impersonate a bucking bronco coming out of the gate. Not good.) Its a legitimate criticism, and Id love some longer odds, but fundamentally, I think hes the best horse in the race. When all else fails, go with that. Hes my pick.
Location: Churchill Downs
When: Post time is scheduled for 6:46 p.m. Eastern.
How to watch: Race coverage begins at noon on NBC Sports Network, and at 2:30 on NBC. Bob Costas and Mike Tirico will host NBCs coverage. The coverage will also be streamed on NBCSports.com and the NBC Sports app.
Length: The race is 1 1/4 miles long.
Weather: The National Weather Service is forecasting an 80 percent chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday, with a high near 69. Precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch are possible. The Derby has been run over a sloppy or muddy track 15 times, including last year.
Who To Bet:
The TLDR version: Mendelssohn Vino Rosso Justify
Live longshots: Enticed, Promises Fulfilled
The point of Derby Day is to drink insane amounts of bourbon, sing My Old Kentucky Home at the top of your lungs, and be sound asleep on the couch by 8:00. So remember, I know nothing, and any predictions herein that resemble actual results are pure coincidence. If you like a horse, for whatever reason, bet it. Did you really need that $2 anyway?
To get you acquainted with the field, lets take a spin through it, in reverse order of interest.
The Ive Always Wanted to Have a Horse Run in the Derby, and Now I Do Division
8. Lone Sailor (50-1) Hes won once in 8 tries, and that was a long time ago. You could make the argument that hes improving (hes working well over the Churchill track), but there are 20 horses in this race, and you have to start throwing them out somewhere. This is my somewhere.
10. My Boy Jack (30-1) Not my boy. He isnt very fast, doesnt usually win, and is coming off a short layoff from a tough race. Otherwise, this is a great idea.
13. Bravazo (50-1) His best win was as a long shot; otherwise, he hasnt done much. Not seeing it.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1) The jockey is Robby Albarado. Ill quote my daughters favorite phrase on this one: Nope, nope, nope, nope, nooooooo. Under no circumstances will a Robby Albarado-ridden horse have my money on him (he hates me, I hate him were both good with that). Next.
15. Instilled Regard (50-1) Congrats on making the derby. Enjoy the free cocktails in the owners box.
1. Firenze Fire (50-1) If this race were run last October, he might have a legitimate shot. But (checks calendar). . . nope, its not last October. As a 2-year old, he beat Good Magic, Enticed, and Free Drop Billy, but since then, hes not really gotten any better. I dont think the mile and a quarter suits him (he hasnt been running on at the end of any of the prep races hes really a sprinter), and hes in the dreaded 1-hole. Pass.
20. Combatant (50-1) Not sure hes going to love the distance, and hes not really impressed in any of his preps. He hasnt disgraced himself (hitting the board every time out), but theres nothing in his form that makes me think hes actually got a shot to win this. But if you want to take a stab, vaya con Dios.
The If You Really, Really Squint, I Guess You Can See It Division
4. Flameaway (30-1) This is a solid horse, who should have a nice career, but I dont think is good enough to compete here. Hell run an honest race, and deserves his shot at it hes won 5 times. And his best, if everything breaks perfectly, is probably enough to hit the board he did finish 2nd to Good Magic in the Blue Grass. But I still think its a stretch. This horse screams 11th place finisher to me.
17. Solomini (30-1) He was really solid at 2, but has been mediocre at 3. Kinda runs like a spaz, but there is some talent there. If he puts it all together, he could hit the board, but Ill go elsewhere for my live longshots.
19. Noble Indy (30-1) He doesnt like to leave the gate, and breaking out of the 19 hole, could find himself far behind early. Not sure he has the ability to make up that much ground. Hes not a bad horse, and 30-1 is more than fair, but it feels like he might hear his name called at the start, and then never again.
9. Hofburg (20-1) Coming off a second to Audible in the Florida Derby, where he was clearly better than the rest after a crummy trip (but clearly not as good as Audible). Like Justify, hes only raced 3 times, so experience is an issue. Bill Mott is the trainer hes great, and he wouldnt run a Derby entrant if he didnt think he had a shot. You have to believe he will get better, but maybe this is just a step too far right now. Hes a son of Tapit, my all-time favorite horse, so Ill use him somewhere for sentimental reasons. 20-1 is a bit short, though.
The These Guys Are Good, Just Not for Me Division
11. Bolt dOro (8-1) You know how something can be talked about as being underrated so much, that they actually end up overrated? I think Bolt dOro is becoming that horse. He was really good at 2, then a lackluster (but certainly not terrible) 3-year old campaign has taken a lot of the shine off him. He ran 2nd to Justify in the Santa Anita, and it was a good effort. But perhaps he was just an early bloomer, and his best days are behind him (hey, it happens to us all). Theres a lot of buzz about him this week, and he will probably be the wise guy horse for this race (some guy with a vowel at the end of his name will have a tip from a guy who knows a guy), and he absolutely has a chance to hit the board, even win this. But unless he magically discovers his form from last year, hes a cut below. Be careful of taking short odds on a horse like that.
16. Magnum Moon (6-1) One of our unraced-at-2 horses. If I had to pick one (Justify or Magnum Moon), I think Justify is better. Moons results are nothing to sneeze at hes won all 4 times hes raced, from different spots but he really showed his inexperience in the Arkansas Derby by drifting all the way over the track. He wont be able to do that in Louisville and win. Not sure the horses he beat in Arkansas were that great though Quip, who is skipping the Derby for the Preakness, is decent so I cant see 6-1. Wouldnt shock me, but doesnt get my sugars up.
5. Audible (8-1) I want to like this horse more than I do. Hes improved steadily since his debut, and his last two wins in Florida (Holy Bull, Florida Derby) were very solid. Hes won from off the pace, and near the lead. He should be fit coming into the race. So why cant I get on his bandwagon? I dont think hes really beaten anyone in Florida that group seems a cut below the rest. His works are meh, and his regular jockey, Johnny Velazquez, chose to ride Vino Rosso instead. Plus, I think his odds are too short. Give me 10-1 or more, and I might reconsider. But for now, leaving him out. Good horse, though.
The Youre Dang Right Theyre on My Tickets at Those Odds Division
3. Promises Fulfilled (30-1) Hmmm. . . heres a live long shot. Lets see, hes beaten Good Magic this year, will likely get the lead, dumped Robby Albarado as his jockey for this one (yay!), is the son of Shackleford who got me PAID in the 2011 Preakness, has a win over this track, and, as noted, will pay you 30 American dollars for every buck you bet on him. But you need to ignore some ugliness though if he gets into a speed duel, hes likely cooked, and will all the speed in this race let him get an easy lead? His last prep was a horror show (he was so far behind, they about had to pull him off the track so they could set up for the next race), and outside of his win over Good Magic, theres not a lot of quality there. An interesting flyer, though.
12. Enticed (30-1) I am. . . Enticed. Hes hit the board in 4 out of 5 graded stakes, and he was the favorite in 3 of them so everyone recognizes his talent, and hes delivered. So why the long odds? He just may not be fast enough. But I think hes improving, and his second last out in the Wood was solid. If hes anywhere near these odds, hes going on my tickets somewhere.
The Heres Where Im Thinking Serious Cash Division
6. Good Magic (12-1) Ah, our aforementioned 2-year old champion. The weaknesses first his first race as a 3-year old was a bit of a dud, and he worked really hard to beat Flameaway in the Blue Grass, who I dont think is that great. Thats all true. But. . . he was clearly the best in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall to win the 2-year old honors. Hes steadily improved this year after the layoff, and the 3rd race in a cycle is classic for being the one at which a horse peaks. His sire Curlin shows he can get the distance, and he doesnt need the lead (or a ridiculous pace) to score. I think 12-1 is a steal on this horse. Should be sitting right off the lead when they turn for home, and have a great shot and getting home. Hes definitely going in my supers, and I can absolutely see him winning this.
7. Justify (3-1) Holy schniekees, this horse is fast. If youre betting on the winner of a race, fast is good. Real good. Hes also huge. Hes the horse equivalent of an NFL defensive end a unique combination of speed and strength. The Bengals should draft him, though hed probably get suspended shortly thereafter. But I digress. Heres where I start overthinking this race: hes only had 3 races, none at age 2. Lets talk about the Curse of Apollo for a second its not that its some mystical thing like a billy goat. Its just that asking a horse to go from never racing, to winning one of the toughest races in the world, in the matter of a few months, is a big ask. How will he deal with the crowd? Does he have the seasoning to deal with cavalry charge to start the race, and the stamina to withstand multiple challenges? Curlin, one of the great horses of all time, couldnt do it. I just cant see the value at 3-1. But when he wins, and Im looking at all my losing tickets saying I should have just bet on the fastest horse, feel free to tell me you told me so.
18. Vino Rosso (12-1) I like this horse. A lot. He ran a great race in the Wood Memorial, which was the first time he ran with blinkers. In his prior efforts, he seemed distracted, so this was probably a good equipment change. Turned in an absolute bullet in his last work at Churchill, so hes in great form. Gets Johnny V, who had his pick of Derby mounts. And I know a certain person who picks based on name will want to bet on him (Hi, honey!). Great value at 12-1.
14. Mendelssohn (5-1) If Justify is the fastest horse in this race, Mendelssohn is not far behind, if hes behind at all. He won his last race the UAE Derby by 18.5 lengths. You have arguably the best trainer and jockey in the world Aidan OBrien and Ryan Moore in his corner. Hes got no problem with the distance (the UAE Derby was only a 1/16th shorter than the Derby), and he should be able to adapt to any pace. There will be one piece of late breaking information to add to this puzzle Rayya, the horse who ran 2nd in the UAE Derby, is running today (Friday) in the Kentucky Oaks. If she runs credibly, that flatters Mendelssohns performance immensely. The only knock on him is where his last prep was Dubai. Horses coming out of that race have never run well at the Derby (last year, Thunder Snow, who I kinda liked, decided to impersonate a bucking bronco coming out of the gate. Not good.) Its a legitimate criticism, and Id love some longer odds, but fundamentally, I think hes the best horse in the race. When all else fails, go with that. Hes my pick.
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