Okay, I'm VERY confused. I thought rankings reflected how teams are playing right now.

#1
S

StrangeVol

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 25, 2016
Messages
3,426
Likes
4,221
#1
Not how somebody thinks they will be playing eventually, or how they have played in the recent past. So am I wrong?

I had some time on my hands, not unusual being retired, and I was looking at the latest D1 Baseball rankings and it appeared to me that based on Won/Lost as of today, some teams were ranked way higher than they deserved at this point in the season.

As a reference point, I used some UT stats (RPI = 45, SOS =205, W/L = 12-0) and compared those to teams ranked in the top 12, plus one more. I'll explain in a minute about the plus one more. First, I think most of the top 12 are deserving of their ranking, although I might shift some a bit higher or lower. Three teams clearly, to me at least, don't belong in the top 12 and there are at least 2 more we could argue about being ranked ahead of the Vols.

The most over-ranked team to date is Vandy. Currently ranked #2, I'm not sure they belong in the top 20. Their RPI is 120, their SOS is 203 and their W/L is 10/3. How in hell are they the number 2 team in college baseball? Next on my "don't deserve to be there" list is #12, Duke. RPI is 100, SOS is 207 and they sport a record of 9-2. Not at all deserving of being in the top 12, imo. Last on the list is our old friends from Texas Tech, a team I often cheer for, that holds a RPI of 37, a SOS of 140, and a 11-1 record thanks to us. I do think they are a good team and a ranking of #5 would be deserved if they had beaten us. They didn't though. We beat them fair and square and I can't help think we deserve to be a lot higher or they deserve to be a good deal lower.

Two other teams that I seriously question being in the top 12 are Arizona State at RPI 82, SOS 60 and a record of 8-4. Does that really warrant a top 10 ranking? Not in my book. Then there is Duke, RPI 100, SOS 207 and W/L of 9-2. Are they really the #12 team with those stats? Granted they're good students but come on, this is baseball we're talkin' about!

Finally, that "plus one more" team that I just had to include in my rant. Michigan. Ranked 16th with awe-inspiring stats of RPI 144, SOS of 220, and a W/L record of 6-4. How in the hell is this team even in the top 25?" This is a team that lost 3 out of 4 to UConn, a team that is 4-5 on the season.

Sorry to go on for so long but I had to get this off my chest. My bottom line here is that the Vols aren't getting the credit they deserve and several other teams are getting a lot of credit for "reputation," I guess. I say that because their rankings have not been earned on the field, where it counts.

P.S. I just saw that the coaches poll has us at #11. That seems totally appropriate to me. You think maybe coaches know more than sportswriters? I wonder where the coaches put Michigan? LOL They dropped them to 20th, which imo, is still too high.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: BigDave, HalfullVol, OldTimer and 2 others
#2
#2
StrangeVol said:
Not how somebody thinks they will be playing eventually, or how they have played in the recent past. So am I wrong?

I had some time on my hands, not unusual being retired, and I was looking at the latest D1 Baseball rankings and it appeared to me that based on Won/Lost as of today, some teams were ranked way higher than they deserved at this point in the season.

As a reference point, I used some UT stats (RPI = 45, SOS =205, W/L = 12-0) and compared those to teams ranked in the top 12, plus one more. I'll explain in a minute about the plus one more. First, I think most of the top 12 are deserving of their ranking, although I might shift some a bit higher or lower. Three teams clearly, to me at least, don't belong in the top 12 and there are at least 2 more we could argue about being ranked ahead of the Vols.

The most over-ranked team to date is Vandy. Currently ranked #2, I'm not sure they belong in the top 20. Their RPI is 120, their SOS is 203 and their W/L is 10/3. How in hell are they the number 2 team in college baseball? Next on my "don't deserve to be there" list is #12, Duke. RPI is 100, SOS is 207 and they sport a record of 9-2. Not at all deserving of being in the top 12, imo. Last on the list is our old friends from Texas Tech, a team I often cheer for, that holds a RPI of 37, a SOS of 140, and a 11-1 record thanks to us. I do think they are a good team and a ranking of #5 would be deserved if they had beaten us. They didn't though. We beat them fair and square and I can't help think we deserve to be a lot higher or they deserve to be a good deal lower.

Two other teams that I seriously question being in the top 12 are Arizona State at RPI 82, SOS 60 and a record of 8-4. Does that really warrant a top 10 ranking? Not in my book. Then there is Duke, RPI 100, SOS 207 and W/L of 9-2. Are they really the #12 team with those stats? Granted they're good students but come on, this is baseball we're talkin' about!

Finally, that "plus one more" team that I just had to include in my rant. Michigan. Ranked 16th with awe-inspiring stats of RPI 144, SOS of 220, and a W/L record of 6-4. How in the hell is this team even in the top 25?" This is a team that lost 3 out of 4 to UConn, a team that is 4-5 on the season.

Sorry to go on for so long but I had to get this off my chest. My bottom line here is that the Vols aren't getting the credit they deserve and several other teams are getting a lot of credit for "reputation," I guess. I say that because their rankings have not been earned on the field, where it counts.

P.S. I just saw that the coaches poll has us at #11. That seems totally appropriate to me. You think maybe coaches know more than sportswriters? I wonder where the coaches put Michigan? LOL They dropped them to 20th, which imo, is still too high.
Click to expand...
If they are undefeated headed into the USCe series and they take 2 of 3 in that series we will start to garner all the respect we deserve. We know we are good but can we sustain it is the question. But I do agree that our record at 12-0 and some quality wins they have us to low.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TrumpedUpVol
#4
#4
BruinVol said:
Tenn really has only played 1 game were they weren’t a heavy heavy favorite. 12-0 is a great start and the win vs Texas Tech is great but the rest of the games are worthless when judging how elite this team really is
Click to expand...

RPI and SOS account for the quality of teams we, and everyone else, have played. I get that you love to take a negative point of view to almost anything to do with the Vols, but stats don't lie...well maybe a little bit. ;)
 
  • Like
Reactions: sccshortstop
#5
#5
StrangeVol said:
RPI and SOS account for the quality of teams we, and everyone else, have played. I get that you love to take a negative point of view to almost anything to do with the Vols, but stats don't lie...well maybe a little bit. ;)
Click to expand...

Seriously man the stats don’t lie and they aren’t pretty.

0-9 western Illinois
8-4 Charlotte
3-7 houston
3-8 Stanford
0-12 northern Kentucky
2-9 Unc Asheville
6-5 Georgewashington

That’s 22-55. So as the thread topic covers there is a reason why the rankings don’t put credit toward our schedule.

so yes we have had a great start but there is only one good win and that’s against Texas tech

Btw don’t give me this BS about me
Always taking the negative stance.
Last week I stated this team might win it all. So is that being negative ??
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoVolunteers
#6
#6
And our schedule isn’t going to get any better either with our next two opponents being 2-8 and 3-9
 
#7
#7
StrangeVol said:
RPI and SOS account for the quality of teams we, and everyone else, have played. I get that you love to take a negative point of view to almost anything to do with the Vols, but stats don't lie...well maybe a little bit. ;)
Click to expand...
He’s got a personal stake in Vitello failing. He has to be in Contrarian Hell presently. 😏
 
  • Like
Reactions: StarRaider
#8
#8
I don't know how it works at D1 Baseball but I think Baseball America is a guy in his Mom's basement. Back in 2001, I attended the College World Series. Tennessee had a pretty darn good team. I watched a lot of teams and Tennessee, by their performance on the field, was the 2nd best team that year. Miami had a fantastic team and Tennessee had the misfortune of being in the same side of the tournament bracket. Tennessee beat Southern Cal 10-2, beat Georgia 19-2 and lost twice to Miami. In the Baseball America final rankings, Tennessee was ranked 7th (out of the 8 teams at Omaha) and Georgia was ranked something like 4th in the final poll. Southern Cal beat Georgia 11-5. Georgia was 0-2 at the CWS. Tennessee beat Georgia badly and beat Southern Cal easily, the other team that beat Georgia. I emailed Baseball America and asked why Georgia was ranked so high in the final poll and Tennessee so low. The guy responded and pointed out that Georgia had swept Tennessee in the first conference series of the season back in April and "you can't ignore that". Apparently you can ignore that a team improves over a period of two months. My point being that it was all about his opinion, not what happened on the biggest stage in College Baseball at the end of the season. Tennessee should have been ranked no lower than 3rd because they were one of the last three teams playing. They probably should have been 2nd because no one else could score more than 3 runs on Miami and Tennessee managed to score 6 in one of their losses to Miami. Georgia should have been no higher than 7th because they were one of the first 2 teams to go home. What happened at the CWS didn't seem to matter to Baseball America.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: OldTimer, StarRaider, StrangeVol and 1 other person
#9
#9
BruinVol said:
Tenn really has only played 1 game were they weren’t a heavy heavy favorite. 12-0 is a great start and the win vs Texas Tech is great but the rest of the games are worthless when judging how elite this team really is
Click to expand...
Actually, your first statement is incorrect. A heavy, heavy favorite?
 
#10
#10
cardvolfan said:
Actually, your first statement is incorrect. A heavy, heavy favorite?
Click to expand...

The only game we have played were we weren’t supposed to win was Texas Tech. No betting on games in college until post season play but none the less we were heavy favorites to win the other 11 games

But in baseball winning that many games without an upset is impressive
 
  • Like
Reactions: cardvolfan
#11
#11
sigmundoooz said:
I don't know how it works at D1 Baseball but I think Baseball America is a guy in his Mom's basement. Back in 2001, I attended the College World Series. Tennessee had a pretty darn good team. I watched a lot of teams and Tennessee, by their performance on the field, was the 2nd best team that year. Miami had a fantastic team and Tennessee had the misfortune of being in the same side of the tournament bracket. Tennessee beat Stanford 10-2, beat Georgia 19-2 and lost twice to Miami. In the Baseball America final rankings, Tennessee was ranked 7th (out of the 8 teams at Omaha) and Georgia was ranked something like 4th in the final poll. Southern Cal beat Georgia 11-5. Georgia was 0-2 at the CWS. Tennessee beat Georgia badly and beat Southern Cal easily, the other team that beat Georgia. I emailed Baseball America and asked why Georgia was ranked so high in the final poll and Tennessee so low. The guy responded and pointed out that Georgia had swept Tennessee in the first conference series of the season back in April and "you can't ignore that". Apparently you can ignore that a team improves over a period of two months. My point being that it was all about his opinion, not what happened on the biggest stage in College Baseball at the end of the season. Tennessee should have been ranked no lower than 3rd because they were one of the last three teams playing. They probably should have been 2nd because no one else could score more than 3 runs on Miami and Tennessee managed to score 6 in one of their losses to Miami. Georgia should have been no higher than 7th because they were one of the first 2 teams to go home. What happened at the CWS didn't seem to matter to Baseball America.
Click to expand...

Please post more often!
 
#12
#12
Last of February rankings aren't that measurable anyway. I agree with Bruin. I'm glad the guys are 12-0 and the Round Rock tournament was pretty impressive, but we only account for 12 of those 55 losses in the SoS. It will work itself out through the SEC schedule. I'd much rather be under estimated at the end of February than over estimated at the end of March. It's going to play itself out. I promise.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoVolunteers and StarRaider
#13
#13
ksgovols said:
Last of February rankings aren't that measurable anyway. I agree with Bruin. I'm glad the guys are 12-0 and the Round Rock tournament was pretty impressive, but we only account for 12 of those 55 losses in the SoS. It will work itself out through the SEC schedule. I'd much rather be under estimated at the end of February than over estimated at the end of March. It's going to play itself out. I promise.
Click to expand...

Yes it will play itself out for sure and with the wins racked up already a regional birth is almost assured at this point

The worry I have is that this schedule is going to make hosting a regional much more difficult to land. It might take winning 19-20 games to host with the weak OCS. Jmo
but yea it’s going to be fun watching it unfold
 
#14
#14
We look good so far, but the conference schedule will be the proof of how good this team really is. Any word on Crochet? If he is back for the SEC and as good or better than last year, the rest of the staff can perform at least close to what they are now and the hitters and fielding continue to shine, we should be in good shape. GBO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: StrangeVol
#15
#15
BruinVol said:
Seriously man the stats don’t lie and they aren’t pretty.

0-9 western Illinois
8-4 Charlotte
3-7 houston
3-8 Stanford
0-12 northern Kentucky
2-9 Unc Asheville
6-5 Georgewashington

That’s 22-55. So as the thread topic covers there is a reason why the rankings don’t put credit toward our schedule.

so yes we have had a great start but there is only one good win and that’s against Texas tech

Btw don’t give me this BS about me
Always taking the negative stance.
Last week I stated this team might win it all. So is that being negative ??
Click to expand...
Maybe if they hadn't played Tennessee they would have a better record.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Golf freak
#18
#18
To me, college baseball is one of the hardest collegiate sports to accurately rank. So much depends on the pitching staff which can be up and down. I think we can be really good this year if everyone stays healthy and I'd just soon stay under the radar for a while. I agree the conference schedule will do the separating and hopefully we'll win our share.
 
#19
#19
tennrich1 said:
To me, college baseball is one of the hardest collegiate sports to accurately rank. So much depends on the pitching staff which can be up and down. I think we can be really good this year if everyone stays healthy and I'd just soon stay under the radar for a while. I agree the conference schedule will do the separating and hopefully we'll win our share.
Click to expand...

Agreed

Crochet is very key. Without him I don’t see us finishing in the top half of the SEC
 
  • Like
Reactions: Titan05 and tennrich1
#20
#20
Being ranked is nice but ultimately baseball is a tournament sport. Win the mid-week non-conf. games, win more than you lose in the SEC, and gear up the regionals.

I can't wait to see what this team does in the SEC this year. It will be fun to watch.
 
  • Like
Reactions: StrangeVol and tennrich1
#21
#21
I'm cautiously optimistic. However, other than Texas Tech, Tennessee has not only beaten bad teams, they've beaten really bad teams.

Northern Kentucky and this team tonight, Longwood, are downright awful teams. I'm pretty confident my JUCO team could have beaten these two schools. Slaughtering these schools is not impressive and does not make a case for rankings.

This is exactly why I mentioned in another thread that Tennessee needs to play better competition early in the season. These games do give you a chance to get many pitchers innings and plenty of at bats to younger guys. However, I'm not wowed beating a team like Longwood by nearly 4 TD's.

I have been to all the home games and I've seen things offense and defensively that needs improvement because they've gotten away with it playing terrible teams.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Titan05
#22
#22
xman1102 said:
I'm cautiously optimistic. However, other than Texas Tech, Tennessee has not only beaten bad teams, they've beaten really bad teams.

Northern Kentucky and this team tonight, Longwood, are downright awful teams. I'm pretty confident my JUCO team could have beaten these two schools. Slaughtering these schools is not impressive and does not make a case for rankings.

This is exactly why I mentioned in another thread that Tennessee needs to play better competition early in the season. These games do give you a chance to get many pitchers innings and plenty of at bats to younger guys. However, I'm not wowed beating a team like Longwood by nearly 4 TD's.

I have been to all the home games and I've seen things offense and defensively that needs improvement because they've gotten away with it playing terrible teams.
Click to expand...
At least they're not playing down to the competition.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top