duuuuuuuuuuuuude
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- Jul 28, 2010
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I'm sure this will get me absolutely crucified, but that's OK. Sometimes a contrarian view is necessary.
We think - but don't know - that Jon Gruden would be a great college coach. We assume:
We assume he could do all those things and be successful. And maybe we even have good reason for thinking that.
But what if we're wrong? What if he can't win here? What if he craps the bed with the lights on? What if 9-3 is his ceiling, and we just keep losing to Florida, Alabama and South Carolina/Georgia? What if he's more like Wannstedt than Saban?
Like it or not, those are very real possibilities. We might disagree about the likelihood of that happening, but we have to recognize that it's a possibility. If you don't, you're dealing with fantasy instead of reality.
If you ascribe any validity to the rumors, UT would be on the hook for something like $10-11M per year for the next six years for this coaching staff. If you think Dooley's $5M buyout was crippling, multiply it by five or six and then choke that down. That problem will be compounded by the fact that neither the University nor the mega-boosters will be as likely to go as deep into the well a second time.
The simple fact is that, if Gruden fails, the impact on Tennessee football would be utterly catastrophic. We'd be dealt a financial blow that we're simply not able to absorb. The people who say "Money is no object" never seem to be the people who actually have to find the money to make the program run. If we have to fire Gruden, when we go looking for our next coach, somebody like Dooley would be the ceiling, since we couldn't afford even a marginally big name. Plus, the perception would have to be "if Gruden can't succeed there, maybe no one can."
My point is this: Maybe Gruden would be wildly successful here. But hiring him under anything like the terms that have been reported here amounts to pushing all your chips to the center of the table -- putting the football program all in. I'm simply not ready to do that. We could hire a college-proven head coach and staff at something like half the annual cost, and on three- (rather than six-) year contracts. Their likelihood of success might be slightly lower than Gruden's (although I'd argue for some coaches, it's actually higher), but the consequences of making a bad hire are nowhere near as devastating.
That's my take. Flame away.
We think - but don't know - that Jon Gruden would be a great college coach. We assume:
- That he could recruit (Although in the first couple of years, that's a pretty safe bet based on name alone. After that, you gotta win.)
- That he could adapt to the college game, recruiting rules, the 20-hour rule, etc., etc., etc.
- That his offense -- notoriously complex and never successfully implemented at the college level -- would work here
- That he could build an all-star staff that, although filled with all-stars and big egos, would never clash or bolt for the NFL or other NCAA coaching jobs, and
- That he'd be here for the long haul, and wouldn't bolt for Mack Brown's job, or an NFL gig, or back to the comfort of the broadcast booth.
We assume he could do all those things and be successful. And maybe we even have good reason for thinking that.
But what if we're wrong? What if he can't win here? What if he craps the bed with the lights on? What if 9-3 is his ceiling, and we just keep losing to Florida, Alabama and South Carolina/Georgia? What if he's more like Wannstedt than Saban?
Like it or not, those are very real possibilities. We might disagree about the likelihood of that happening, but we have to recognize that it's a possibility. If you don't, you're dealing with fantasy instead of reality.
If you ascribe any validity to the rumors, UT would be on the hook for something like $10-11M per year for the next six years for this coaching staff. If you think Dooley's $5M buyout was crippling, multiply it by five or six and then choke that down. That problem will be compounded by the fact that neither the University nor the mega-boosters will be as likely to go as deep into the well a second time.
The simple fact is that, if Gruden fails, the impact on Tennessee football would be utterly catastrophic. We'd be dealt a financial blow that we're simply not able to absorb. The people who say "Money is no object" never seem to be the people who actually have to find the money to make the program run. If we have to fire Gruden, when we go looking for our next coach, somebody like Dooley would be the ceiling, since we couldn't afford even a marginally big name. Plus, the perception would have to be "if Gruden can't succeed there, maybe no one can."
My point is this: Maybe Gruden would be wildly successful here. But hiring him under anything like the terms that have been reported here amounts to pushing all your chips to the center of the table -- putting the football program all in. I'm simply not ready to do that. We could hire a college-proven head coach and staff at something like half the annual cost, and on three- (rather than six-) year contracts. Their likelihood of success might be slightly lower than Gruden's (although I'd argue for some coaches, it's actually higher), but the consequences of making a bad hire are nowhere near as devastating.
That's my take. Flame away.
