OSU favored by 4-1/2---

#1
JohnWardForever

JohnWardForever

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#1
Vegas opening line. I have a feeling that Tennessee wins. Just a gut feeling. Vols are playing some hellatious defense.
 
#2
#2
That line makes sense to me. It will be interesting to see how the line moves based on the action for both teams.
 
#7
#7
Even if I remove my orange head band, I think 4.5 is a bit high. I would've expected 2.5-3.5. Vegas is banking on Johnny Public not researching. I'll be curious to see how this one moves.

I'd love to tease this one. If you could get 4 more points, I'd feel pretty good about it.
 
#8
#8
Oldblood said:
So is your logic that the line will go up because the public always bets the favorite? Then why do lines ever go down?
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Insiders call it REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT. Sharps do bet the dogs, but public money is big in the tournament. Vegas has been known to move the line to entice bettors in a certain direction; based on insider info.

Example-----85% of bets go on one side, and the line moves down on that side; opposite of the action. We call it a skanky line.
Now you know.

Just so we're clear, I said nothing about where the line would go.
 
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#9
#9
tennesseety said:
Even if I remove my orange head band, I think 4.5 is a bit high. I would've expected 2.5-3.5. Vegas is banking on Johnny Public not researching. I'll be curious to see how this one moves.

I'd love to tease this one. If you could get 4 more points, I'd feel pretty good about it.
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Teasing basketball games is a sure way to lose money.
 
#13
#13
If I wasn't a Tennessee fan, I'd put money on Ohio State.

That being said, I don't put any serious money on games I have a rooting interest in.
 
#15
#15
bornbleedinorange said:
Our bench is better, our size is better, and our D is alot better. But they have Evan Turner so it should be a good game
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And Ohio State is a better shooting team(better FG% and 3P% by far) and averages less turnovers per game....but hey let's just make arguments for our own sides and ignore the other to make our teams look better.

By the way, Hello Vol Nation.
 
#16
#16
JohnWardForever said:
Not if you do your homework. How many times do you think bets have been lost by 1/2---to 1 point? Millions.
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I'm no stranger to the betting game. I fully appreciate the importance of a half point in a basketball game. I've been burned and saved by half points on numerous occassions. But the importance of that half point that allows you to win that one game in the teaser is quite irrelevant when you lose the third game by 20 points. The fundamental problem with teasers is that too many things have to go right.

1. A CFB teaser is a waaaay better bet than a CBB teaser*.

2. CFB teasers are dumb bets.

3. Thus, CBB teasers are really dumb bets.

My friend always comes up with "can't lose" teasers that look great on paper, but then they always lose. I learned my lesson on teasers a while back. Plus the juice is greater on a teaser.

A better way to go than playing the teaser is just to play the moneyline. Playing the moneyline on favored teams is a money play as long as you remain selective. Also, in CBB ML's don't increase linearly with the spread. The ML on a team favored by 6-8 points is usually in the 3-1 range. Once the spread gets up in the double digits, the ML will get up around 10-1. So I like to find games where the I think the favorite will cover the spread (in the 6-9ish) point range. I put a play down on the spread for amount X, and then I put a play down on the ML for X*1.1.

Quick example and then I'm done because this is getting long:
Duke was favored by 6.5 over Cal. I was pretty confident Duke would cover that spread, but I was even more confident that they would win the game. So I put in:
100 Duke-6.5
110 Duke at -280

With this play, three scenarios can happen:
1. You win 210
2. You come out even
3. You lose about 400 bucks.

Option #3 is what will keep a lot of people from making this play. And option #3 will occassionally happen. But if you're selective in how you approach this strategy, you'll get enough option #1's to absorb a potential option #3 hit.

*This is true for at least two reasons: (1) you get fewer points to work with in bb (4 as opposed to 6 for a two-team taser), and (2) there is much more random variance involved in cbb games than there is in cfb games (this statement is not just my opinion. it's factually supportable. an analysis of why it's true, though, will have to be saved for another day (that is, if you even disagree with the statement).).
 
#17
#17
kidbourbon said:
I'm no stranger to the betting game. I fully appreciate the importance of a half point in a basketball game. I've been burned and saved by half points on numerous occassions. But the importance of that half point that allows you to win that one game in the teaser is quite irrelevant when you lose the third game by 20 points. The fundamental problem with teasers is that too many things have to go right.

1. A CFB teaser is a waaaay better bet than a CBB teaser*.

2. CFB teasers are dumb bets.

3. Thus, CBB teasers are really dumb bets.

My friend always comes up with "can't lose" teasers that look great on paper, but then they always lose. I learned my lesson on teasers a while back. Plus the juice is greater on a teaser.

A better way to go than playing the teaser is just to play the moneyline. Playing the moneyline on favored teams is a money play as long as you remain selective. Also, in CBB ML's don't increase linearly with the spread. The ML on a team favored by 6-8 points is usually in the 3-1 range. Once the spread gets up in the double digits, the ML will get up around 10-1. So I like to find games where the I think the favorite will cover the spread (in the 6-9ish) point range. I put a play down on the spread for amount X, and then I put a play down on the ML for X*1.1.

Quick example and then I'm done because this is getting long:
Duke was favored by 6.5 over Cal. I was pretty confident Duke would cover that spread, but I was even more confident that they would win the game. So I put in:
100 Duke-6.5
110 Duke at -280

With this play, three scenarios can happen:
1. You win 210
2. You come out even
3. You lose about 400 bucks.

Option #3 is what will keep a lot of people from making this play. And option #3 will occassionally happen. But if you're selective in how you approach this strategy, you'll get enough option #1's to absorb a potential option #3 hit.

*This is true for at least two reasons: (1) you get fewer points to work with in bb (4 as opposed to 6 for a two-team taser), and (2) there is much more random variance involved in cbb games than there is in cfb games (this statement is not just my opinion. it's factually supportable. an analysis of why it's true, though, will have to be saved for another day (that is, if you even disagree with the statement).).
Click to expand...

To each his own. I have won NUMEROUS teaser bets----and some up to 6 teams on a play. Payoff is 7-1 and no juice. The juice on a 2 teamer is 110-100, same as a straight bet. If I feel confident a team will win; but may not pull the line-----I tease 'em. If I think a team can pull the line, I bet 'em straight and tease 'em. You just gotta know your stuff. I am talking about 6 point teasers in FB and 4 in BB.
 
#19
#19
JohnWardForever said:
To each his own. I have won NUMEROUS teaser bets----and some up to 6 teams on a play. Payoff is 7-1 and no juice.
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Just to be clear, you are taking 6 games with only 4 points to play with per game (in BB) but with increased odds?

That's not an "according-to-hoyle" teaser. It's a hybrid between a teaser and a parlay -- a "partease" as some would call it. If I had to rate my least favorite bet, what you're describing would be right there at the very top of the list. But like you said, to each his own. If you're having success, roll with it.
 
#20
#20
NewportBeachBuck said:
And Ohio State is a better shooting team(better FG% and 3P% by far) and averages less turnovers per game....but hey let's just make arguments for our own sides and ignore the other to make our teams look better.

By the way, Hello Vol Nation.
Click to expand...

OSU does hold an edge in those percentages. No doubt. Did you know that playing the same number of games, both teams averaged 73.6 PPG? After all the games were played and the hot or not shooting was over, UT scored 2575 points in 35 games and OSU scored 2577 points in 35 games. T/O's-OSU is 1.8 per game better. These two teams are scary close in the numbers comparison.
 
#21
#21
Slydell said:
OSU does hold an edge in those percentages. No doubt. Did you know that playing the same number of games, both teams averaged 73.6 PPG? After all the games were played and the hot or not shooting was over, UT scored 2575 points in 35 games and OSU scored 2577 points in 35 games. T/O's-OSU is 1.8 per game better. These two teams are scary close in the numbers comparison.
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Not to be the Debbie Downer, but we had more possessions. Per possession data is more useful because you're comparing apples to apples. tOSU's points per possession isn't appreciably better than ours, but it is better.
 
#22
#22
kidbourbon said:
Not to be the Debbie Downer, but we had more possessions. Per possession data is more useful because you're comparing apples to apples. tOSU's points per possession isn't appreciably better than ours, but it is better.
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And there is a story behind the difference in possessions. Without looking into the details, I would guess that we generally shoot earlier in the shot clock than OSU, and I would speculate that we may force more turnovers... both creating more possessions. I think forcing a quicker tempo would be quite to our benefit. Buckeye fans harp on how they don't need a bench... but they don't need a bench based on a slower pace. I hope we play high pressure half court defense, pick them up just across the line. We should use our athleticism. In years past our press could have been a real advantage, but I don't see us breaking it out this late in the season.
 
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