Over/Under on Unemployment Rate in 2016

UE rate at end of Obama's 2nd term

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#2
#2
I'm thinking over. There was a guy who tried to spend and regulate his way out of a depression back in the day....unemployment didn't come down for a decade.
 
#5
#5
I'm thinking under. Just a hunch though, not based on anything concrete.

The economy has to come back at some point I would assume. Maybe it would happen quicker with a different guy in the white house, but it will bounce back.
 
#7
#7
It will be over 7% but with the way its factored now and how much he could rig it moving forward it may dip to 5 but be actually 9.

The last figures didnt even include NY and the report before it didnt even include CA.

They are leaving things out of it and they are also not counting people who just gave up.

The way the report is calculated is a joke.
 
#8
#8
rjd970 said:
I'm thinking under. Just a hunch though, not based on anything concrete.

The economy has to come back at some point I would assume. Maybe it would happen quicker with a different guy in the white house, but it will bounce back.
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Nope 10 years of stagnation. If we go over the fiscal cliff, china has a hard landing, and there are multiple defection from the euro zone, we could see negative growth next year. By the end of obamas 2nd term I doubt GDP growth will even sniff 4%.
 
#9
#9
NEOCON said:
It will be over 7% but with the way its factored now and how much he could rig it moving forward it may dip to 5 but be actually 9.

The last figures didnt even include NY and the report before it didnt even include CA.

They are leaving things out of it and they are also not counting people who just gave up.

The way the report is calculated is a joke.
Click to expand...

The expansion of social programs will push the participation rate so low that you might be right.
 
#10
#10
This thread is a farce. The UE number has become a complete joke. It is nothing but a manipulative political tool for whomever is in office.
 
#12
#12
PKT_VOL said:
This thread is a farce. The UE number has become a complete joke. It is nothing but a manipulative political tool for whomever is in office.
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Agreed. "Employment" as a concept will have to change to continue to be relevant. It should include volunteer efforts, unpaid artistic activity, classes on weight loss and household financial management, finding one's self, and parental support while young and able to party.
 
#20
#20
utvolpj said:
This number can literally be anything they want it to be. My 2012 post said as much
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The chart even says it is "seasonally adjusted". Without defining that.

And if you click the link "the employment situation" it goes into a list of all the ways the current data is "adjusted". I dont see a link to the same info from the past but I imagine there were plenty.
 
#22
#22
Let's update this wager:

At the end of December 2019 (prior to pandemic impact) the UE was 3.5%

Will the Biden administration ever hit this rate? (over/under is 3.5%).

Put me down for over.
 
#23
#23
LouderVol said:
The chart even says it is "seasonally adjusted". Without defining that.

And if you click the link "the employment situation" it goes into a list of all the ways the current data is "adjusted". I dont see a link to the same info from the past but I imagine there were plenty.
Click to expand...
Seasonal adjustment always seems random. I'm sure they have a criteria but no way it's concrete or uniformly applicable to all seasons

Unemployed fall off the ue numbers after a certain length of time. I'd be curious if that was happening now since we're passing a year
 
#24
#24
utvolpj said:
Seasonal adjustment always seems random. I'm sure they have a criteria but no way it's concrete or uniformly applicable to all seasons

Unemployed fall off the ue numbers after a certain length of time. I'd be curious if that was happening now since we're passing a year
Click to expand...
The current link says some of jobless from the pandemic are no longer counted.
 
#25
#25
LouderVol said:
The current link says some of jobless from the pandemic are no longer counted.
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I probably need to read the link šŸ˜

If Biden wants to see that number drop like a rock just end any additional ue payments and all eviction protection. Bet there are some miraculous recoveries one that happens
 
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