I might be wrong, but unless they changed something, the front row for the 500 is determined by qualifying Sunday, with the rest of the field being determined by finishing positions in the two Dual races. The Bud Shootout has nothing to do with qualifying results for the 500. So, you might ought to make Daytona 500 qualifying picks to be due by the start of qualifying Sunday.
Anyway, my pick for the Daytona 500 pole is Greg Biffle.