Polling analysis

#1
CSpindizzy

CSpindizzy

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#1
Florida's other winner: Robo-polling - Alexander Burns - POLITICO.com

Now several of these guys are clients and I was able to see their source data. From the source side, nothing stood out as one firm being different than the other. So the setup and breakdown had to be the difference here.

PPP has an interesting take and it will be interesting to see if this carries over to the general election. They are showing Rubio taking FL, Toomey taking PA, Kirk tied in IL, Blunt taking MO, and Castle taking DE. That is two R pickups, two R holds and one that is a tossup but trending R. A D firm showing this trend does not bode well at all for the Dems.
 
#2
#2
I'm excited about November. Those that are elected in November better listen to a true mandate from the people, STOP SPENDING!
 
#3
#3
what are the chances of that psychopath Alan Grayson and the dimwitted Debbie Wasserman-Schultz going home for good after this one?

I figure those are two of LG's favorite Representatives, and as such, they must go.
 
#5
#5
Strangely enough there has not been much public polling on Grayson. What I've seen internally is not good for him. It will be very close though. Personally I don't understand how this district can be so close after everything he's said.
 
#6
#6
Same thing as that crazy gal from Atlanta........... Her and her dad were dandys.....

Cynthia McKinney??????
 
#7
#7
What has come out in polling on Grayson has been questionable with him holding a lopsided lead. The firms who did these have little credibility though.
 
#8
#8
When Rasmussen shows Wisconsin, California, Illinois, Washington, Pennsylvannia, and the Majority Leaders seat all competitive or possible flips to the GOP then you can say the Dems are in big, big trouble. They will likely win most of these seats but resources will be consumed preventing them from winning them all or making any stand at all in the usual purple states like Colorado or even Missouri.

Blunt's lead in Missouri has Carnahan already spending alot of money on very negative ads. This is a strong sign that she sees the race slipping away already.
 
#9
#9
On top of the Senate, the GOP leads by 8-12 points in Rasmussen's generic poll. That margin if it holds indicates a landslide for the GOP in Nov. The reason is pretty simple. Most red districts have a larger Dem minority than most blue districts have a red minority. Some Dem districts will go 80-90% Dem. Dem's need to be up 3-5 pts to hold their majority.

There is also something being overlooked about the Tea Party. They are the (honest) conservative version of ACORN like groups in 08. They have energy and seem to be bringing many new voters in. They're doing it by educating people though rather than the emotional/non-sensical appeals that brought voters out for the Dems and Obama.

The left has alternately tried to dismiss or mock the TP... but they look like a permanent change in the electorate.
 
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