VFL-82-JP
Bleedin' Orange...
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Warning: long post.
Let's do a bit of crystal ball gazing. Just a bit. Just for fun.
Let's imagine where Josh Heupel might end up in the pantheon of great Tennessee Volunteers head coaches.
And going in, let's set the table with the existing hall of heroes. Ranking them by lifetime win percentages, we have:
General Robert Neyland - 183-31-12 (.836) -- 4 national titles, 7 conference titles, 4 SEC coach of the year awards
Phillip Fulmer - 152-52 (.745) -- 1 national title, 2 conference titles, 1 SEC coach of the year award
John Barnhill - 54-22-5 (.697) -- 1 conference title (while at Arkansas), 1 SEC coach of the year award (with the Vols)
Doug Dickey - 104-58-6 (.637) -- 1 national title (but it is the weakest of all our claimed titles, '67), 2 conference titles, 2 SEC CoY awards
Johnny Majors - 185-137-10 (.572) -- 1 national title (while at Pitt), 3 conference titles, 1 SEC coach of the year award
Or, if you prefer to pare lifetime down to specifically what they did as Vols coaches:
John Barnhill - 32-5-2 (.846) - 0 titles, 1 CoY
General Robert Neyland - 183-31-12 (.836) - 4 national, 7 conference, 4 CoY
Phillip Fulmer - 152-52 (.745) - 1 national, 2 conference, 1 CoY
Doug Dickey - 46-15-4 (.738) - 1 national (weak), 2 conference, 2 CoY
Johnny Majors - 116-62-8 (.645) - 0 national, 3 conference, 1 CoY
Okay, that's the slate. Just as a preliminary note, Josh today would fit in between Neyland and Fulmer on the first list (43-14, .754 win percentage), or between Dickey and Majors on the Tennessee-specific list (15-6, .714).
But this thread isn't about today. It is about the day Josh Heupel hangs up his whistle, retiring from coaching. Where will he rank then?
We need to start out with some assumptions -- some fairly solid, others more speculative:
Assumption #1 -- Josh is home. No desire to go to the NFL. No desire to go back to South Dakota and coach at a lower college level. No desire (obviously) to go to Oklahoma. He remains the Vols Head Coach for the rest of his career.
Assumption #2 -- Josh coaches until he is 75 years old. Why 75? I don't know, had to pick a number, it seems about right. That gives Heupel, who is 44, another 31 years at the helm, beyond this season.
Assumption #3 -- The college game remains roughly the way it is today: 12 regular season games, 1 conference CG, and let's say up to 3 playoff games. So total 16 max games in a season, but at least 13 games for the Vols every year (in years we don't get to Atlanta or the playoffs, we'll still go to a bowl).
Assumption #4 -- Josh's best year is a 16-0 sweep, with both national and conference crowns. I think he's fully capable of that, don't you all? Not every year, but at his best.
Assumption #5 -- Josh's worst years are 9-3 regular season plus 0.5 bowl wins (win one year, lose the next). So 9.5-3.5.
Assumption #6 -- Josh will take us to the playoffs once every two years, and to Atlanta once every two as well. This is the most controversial assumption. Some of you will say based on how he's doing now, we will be an annual lock for both the SEC CG and the playoffs, kind of the way Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have been most of the past decade+. That is entirely possible, I agree. On the other hand, some of you will say that Kirby Smart is going nowhere and Florida might eventually find a really good coach, so we shouldn't plan on Atlanta or the playoffs more than once every three (or more) years. I can see this argument too. This assumption takes the middle ground: once every two.
Assumption #7 -- half the time we go to Atlanta, we win there. Half the time we go to the playoffs, we win the first round (or first two rounds, in a 12-team playoff). One-quarter of the time, we win it all.
Assumption #8 -- let's assume 2022 ends with us 12-2 (11-1 regular season, no trip to Atlanta, win first round of playoffs, lose the championship game). Don't freak out, this is just for argument's sake, that's not my actual prediction how we'll end up this year. And it doesn't make much difference long term (which this thread is about), just gotta assume something.
Okay, I think that's all the assumptions we need. Now some math:
-- average year = (non-championship season half the time + championship-losing season a quarter of the time, plus championship-winning season a quarter of the time) = (9.5-3.5 * 1/2) + (11.5-2.5 * 1/4) + (16-0 * 1/4) == (4.75-1.75) + (2.875-0.625) + (4-0) == 11.625 - 2.375
-- to make that more human looking, an average year we'll go either 12-2 or 11-3.
So at the end of 2022, Josh's career record is 47-16 (.746), and his Tennessee record is 19-8 (.704).
Then 31 more years of (average) 11.625 - 2.375 = 360-74.
Put those together, and Josh's career record will be 407-90 (.819), while his Tennessee lifetime record will be 379-82 (.822).
Yes, for the sharp-eyed among you, Josh's UCF record will, at that point, be the bit dragging his win rate down. Heh. Amazing.
Were that all to come true, Josh would rank second on the career list (by win rate), behind only the General ... and would be third on the Tennessee-specific list, behind Neyland and Barnhill.
But get this: 31 years of winning the SEC and national titles once every four years means Josh could have as many as EIGHT SEC titles and EIGHT National crowns!
And since the goal of our program is championships, one could make a very good argument that he would at that point surpass even the General.
As for me, I'd put them in a tie at 1a and 1b.
We have an exciting few decades ahead of us, ladies and gents.
Go Vols!
Let's do a bit of crystal ball gazing. Just a bit. Just for fun.
Let's imagine where Josh Heupel might end up in the pantheon of great Tennessee Volunteers head coaches.
And going in, let's set the table with the existing hall of heroes. Ranking them by lifetime win percentages, we have:
General Robert Neyland - 183-31-12 (.836) -- 4 national titles, 7 conference titles, 4 SEC coach of the year awards
Phillip Fulmer - 152-52 (.745) -- 1 national title, 2 conference titles, 1 SEC coach of the year award
John Barnhill - 54-22-5 (.697) -- 1 conference title (while at Arkansas), 1 SEC coach of the year award (with the Vols)
Doug Dickey - 104-58-6 (.637) -- 1 national title (but it is the weakest of all our claimed titles, '67), 2 conference titles, 2 SEC CoY awards
Johnny Majors - 185-137-10 (.572) -- 1 national title (while at Pitt), 3 conference titles, 1 SEC coach of the year award
Or, if you prefer to pare lifetime down to specifically what they did as Vols coaches:
John Barnhill - 32-5-2 (.846) - 0 titles, 1 CoY
General Robert Neyland - 183-31-12 (.836) - 4 national, 7 conference, 4 CoY
Phillip Fulmer - 152-52 (.745) - 1 national, 2 conference, 1 CoY
Doug Dickey - 46-15-4 (.738) - 1 national (weak), 2 conference, 2 CoY
Johnny Majors - 116-62-8 (.645) - 0 national, 3 conference, 1 CoY
Okay, that's the slate. Just as a preliminary note, Josh today would fit in between Neyland and Fulmer on the first list (43-14, .754 win percentage), or between Dickey and Majors on the Tennessee-specific list (15-6, .714).
But this thread isn't about today. It is about the day Josh Heupel hangs up his whistle, retiring from coaching. Where will he rank then?
We need to start out with some assumptions -- some fairly solid, others more speculative:
Assumption #1 -- Josh is home. No desire to go to the NFL. No desire to go back to South Dakota and coach at a lower college level. No desire (obviously) to go to Oklahoma. He remains the Vols Head Coach for the rest of his career.
Assumption #2 -- Josh coaches until he is 75 years old. Why 75? I don't know, had to pick a number, it seems about right. That gives Heupel, who is 44, another 31 years at the helm, beyond this season.
Assumption #3 -- The college game remains roughly the way it is today: 12 regular season games, 1 conference CG, and let's say up to 3 playoff games. So total 16 max games in a season, but at least 13 games for the Vols every year (in years we don't get to Atlanta or the playoffs, we'll still go to a bowl).
Assumption #4 -- Josh's best year is a 16-0 sweep, with both national and conference crowns. I think he's fully capable of that, don't you all? Not every year, but at his best.
Assumption #5 -- Josh's worst years are 9-3 regular season plus 0.5 bowl wins (win one year, lose the next). So 9.5-3.5.
Assumption #6 -- Josh will take us to the playoffs once every two years, and to Atlanta once every two as well. This is the most controversial assumption. Some of you will say based on how he's doing now, we will be an annual lock for both the SEC CG and the playoffs, kind of the way Bama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have been most of the past decade+. That is entirely possible, I agree. On the other hand, some of you will say that Kirby Smart is going nowhere and Florida might eventually find a really good coach, so we shouldn't plan on Atlanta or the playoffs more than once every three (or more) years. I can see this argument too. This assumption takes the middle ground: once every two.
Assumption #7 -- half the time we go to Atlanta, we win there. Half the time we go to the playoffs, we win the first round (or first two rounds, in a 12-team playoff). One-quarter of the time, we win it all.
Assumption #8 -- let's assume 2022 ends with us 12-2 (11-1 regular season, no trip to Atlanta, win first round of playoffs, lose the championship game). Don't freak out, this is just for argument's sake, that's not my actual prediction how we'll end up this year. And it doesn't make much difference long term (which this thread is about), just gotta assume something.
Okay, I think that's all the assumptions we need. Now some math:
-- average year = (non-championship season half the time + championship-losing season a quarter of the time, plus championship-winning season a quarter of the time) = (9.5-3.5 * 1/2) + (11.5-2.5 * 1/4) + (16-0 * 1/4) == (4.75-1.75) + (2.875-0.625) + (4-0) == 11.625 - 2.375
-- to make that more human looking, an average year we'll go either 12-2 or 11-3.
So at the end of 2022, Josh's career record is 47-16 (.746), and his Tennessee record is 19-8 (.704).
Then 31 more years of (average) 11.625 - 2.375 = 360-74.
Put those together, and Josh's career record will be 407-90 (.819), while his Tennessee lifetime record will be 379-82 (.822).
Yes, for the sharp-eyed among you, Josh's UCF record will, at that point, be the bit dragging his win rate down. Heh. Amazing.
Were that all to come true, Josh would rank second on the career list (by win rate), behind only the General ... and would be third on the Tennessee-specific list, behind Neyland and Barnhill.
But get this: 31 years of winning the SEC and national titles once every four years means Josh could have as many as EIGHT SEC titles and EIGHT National crowns!
And since the goal of our program is championships, one could make a very good argument that he would at that point surpass even the General.
As for me, I'd put them in a tie at 1a and 1b.
We have an exciting few decades ahead of us, ladies and gents.
Go Vols!
