RB's Picks of the Litter

#1
rbroyles

rbroyles

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#1
After much deliberation and deep thought and several Yuenglings, well to be honest mostly the beer, I have decided to do a post each race on who are the drivers to watch or not. Feel free to use them, but don't expect any sympathy if I am totally out to lunch. I mean it is racing dude!

Out of the A Group - J. Johnson has something like four Phoenix wins, so pick him if you like playing it warm & fuzzy, but his qualifying and practice times leave him off for me. I like Edwards and Busch the Elder, Kyle may have two wins already, but to me that just increases the odds against a good run Sunday. Other good choices are Biffle, top five finishes the last four Phoenix races, and Hamlin.

Out of B - Newman won the last race at Phoenix, so I have him down right? Wrong! But he is a solid choice. Mark Martin is getting a lot of love, may prove justified, but I left him off. Good reason to go with him. I found this group to be the most difficult choice. Kahne, McMurray, Logano, Keselowski, Truex, Menard, Ragan, and Allmendinger all qualified in the top 15. I am down for now with the 4 car and the 1 car. When in doubt go with the lowest car numbers is my secret selection tool. Do the same and you be the tool. Newman and Martin are good choices too.

C group - Anyone not picking Regan Smith? Trevor Bayne has all you feel good, tree hugging, slobbering sentimentalists jumping on the Bayne Backers. You are in for disappointment. He lost the glass slippers. I go with Vickers, considered Labonte, would love to see him repeat top five finish from Daytona, but going with my head. Driver to stay away from - Nemechek, he will start and park, trust me. I really don't see anyone else from this group as a good pick. Maybe Robby (low number remember) This ain't Daytonarella.

There you have it for what it is worth. Will I be the Jimmie Hyams of Nascar handicapers? At least I have the cajones to open myself up to your ridicule and derision, two of the more common traits of this board. Just don't dish it if you can't take it.
 
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#2
#2
Good projections.

Here's a thought, would a Nascar blog do good for bringing other members of the forum over the Nascar section?
 
#4
#4
I think you were pretty much right on. I'm just feeling a good week for Stewart and another bad one for Johnson.
 
#5
#5
I am really pulling for Labonte to have another good race tomm. You are right about that C group!
 
#7
#7
I think Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick (both A) bounce back from subpar performances last week.
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#8
#8
I like what you did there Broyles - it can be a bit of side discussion on why people pick who they pick.

I'll throw in my .02 for what it's worth....

Out of Group A both Hendrick drivers Gordon and Jimmie both run well at Phoenix. Over the last 10 races Johnson has the most accumulated points by a good margin over the rest of the active drivers in Cup. His teammate Gordon is 7th on the list. I picked neither driver because I honestly feel Gordon needs a few more races with new crew chief Gufstason and Jimmie just won't have his typical run here. This is the last race at the old configuration before they rip PIR up and make it Iowa West rendering past experiences at this track worthless. In group A I picked Edwards and Ky Busch. Hard to pick against the guy who just led all 200 laps yesterday and dominated the truck race on Friday night as well. He runs good at PIR and I look for him to be solidly in the top 5 most of the race. I also picked a driver I don't care for in Edwards. He finished strong at Daytona, won the last race at PIR, and I think (unfortunately) he's going to have a great year with the new Ford engine. He is definitely my favorite to win today.

Group B is by far the hardest group to pick from. I waffled and had Montoya and Newman originally then changed my picks up to David Ragan and Paul Mendard. Yes, two very odd picks considering the talent in Group B. But, hear me out. Menard has been underrated for several years and made the most out of what he had to run especially last year at Petty. Menard has always ran good on flatter tracks and I see him sneaking in and having a very solid top 10 run this afternoon. David Ragan had the chance to have his breakout win of the year last week and blew it. He won't have the same type of problem this week and he should run very well. He's been fast in practice and has a very similar setup to Cousin Carl from an article I read yesterday. With the setup of Carl, the new Ford powerplant, and Ragan himself knowing he's on the clock to start performing well I see him running very good today and making a bit of a mends for what happened last week at Daytona. Other guys to look for in Group B - definitely Newman since he won last Spring. I feel he could have a good run. Montoya has led alot of laps at PIR but just hasn't finished the job. He could be a factor - didn't pick him because of his general inconsistency. Also two more sleepers in Group B, at least to me, are Logano and Truex. The Toyota's are strong and both of them could have solid runs. It just seems Truex's crew screws him up when he's having a good run fairly often so he is a bit of a wild card.

Group C Broyles nailed it on the head. All of the feel good pickers of Daytona 500 winner Bayne will be waaaaaay out to lunch if they pick him today. The 21 car won't have a very good run today at all IMO and will be very lucky if Trevor even cracks the top 20. I feel Regan Smith, running Childress equipment for those that forget that, and Brian Vickers are the two safest picks. With the speed that Kasey has shown in practice I feel confident Vickers can at least run fair enough to be the next best in Group C. Bobby Labonte could surprise and run decent but just want to see a few real races in the 47 before I commit much to him. Also, again like Broyles mentioned, Robby Gordon may have a decent enough run. He tends to run better on the flat tracks and with the Dodge's of Kurt Busch and Keselowski both being near the front maybe Robby could have a decent enough run today.
 
#10
#10
Bayne's spotter left him hanging. I still picked him, and will probably continue to rotate him and Brian Vickers for that second group C slot.
 
#14
#14
Just doing some forward thinking, is it possible not to pick J. Johnson to win Las Vegas?
I try not to pick him so much, as I am not a big fan, but
he has the mojo working at that race for sure.

Did he not start last year off real slow as well.
I know that they went to Sonoma, but did he not have a pretty rough start last year, then went on to win Vegas?

Guess you cannot say a third place finish yesterday is a slow start!
 
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