Recessions and Forest Fires - some musings

[volinbham]

For some reason I was thinking last night about the "rebirth" effect of recessions along the lines of the rebirth that comes from forest fires.

Maybe it was because I was in San Diego last week and saw the evidence from the massive fires of 2007.

This may sound harsh because I know people are hurting but it appears that deep recessions can have positive effects on people and the economy as a whole. We had fallen into unsustainable borrowing and spending along with excessive consumption.

Because this recession is deep and will be long lasting, I'm betting most people will make alterations in how they live and their relationship with money. Likewise, businesses are rethinking processes to be more lean and effective.

If you know anyone that lived through the Great Depression you see how frugal they can be.

The end result is we as a whole may end up healthier (economically) as a result of this downturn just as the forest does.

[/musing]

 

[IPorange]

High intensity fires from putting out smaller fires over a few years and allowing brush and fuel to build up will completely burn roots that would have otherwise regenerated after weaker fires, as well as sterilize the soil and making it take more time for microbes to move in and break the charred remains back into plant-useful nutrients.

This is exactly the same as manipulating markets with stimulus packages or floating interest rates or forcing markets to sell to people that ordinarily would be to risky, and allowing all of that recession "fuel" to build up. When it does go up, it's much more intense, can damage the roots.

 

[volinbham]

High intensity fires from putting out smaller fires over a few years and allowing brush and fuel to build up will completely burn roots that would have otherwise regenerated after weaker fires, as well as sterilize the soil and making it take more time for microbes to move in and break the charred remains back into plant-useful nutrients.

This is exactly the same as manipulating markets with stimulus packages or floating interest rates or forcing markets to sell to people that ordinarily would be to risky, and allowing all of that recession "fuel" to build up. When it does go up, it's much more intense, can damage the roots.

IP - this was going to be my next post. While some things can be done to limit the damage, the manipulation done "with good intentions" often makes the problem worse.

Humans have an overblown sense of their ability to control phenomena. As a result, we often make things worse.

 

[allvol123]

Humans have an overblown sense of their ability to control phenomena. As a result, we often make things worse.

I am in agreement with your first musing and this one.