Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

[tn88volfan]

Yeah, no chance he doesn't get drafted. And until he makes a Peyton Manning announcement, I'll assume he's going to enter the draft.

I am not even gonna be mad when he leaves. I hope he gets a Brinks truck full of money $$$

 

[GoBigOrange86]

We need to beat all the scrub SEC teams next year like we did this year, and have to get at least one of the big 3. But man, we’re losing a lot. It’s not going to be easy.

I wouldn't be super surprised if we went 7-5 again next year. I don't know that we've reached the point where we can get clear separation from the scrubs. Yeah, we've beaten them this year (Vandy TBD), but none of them were exactly blowouts (South Carolina was blowout-ish).

I'm looking at the schedule next year and thinking we still aren't on the level of OU, UF, UGA, and Bama, so those are games I think are likelier losses than not. Then I could see us dropping one of the scrubs. Don't think it would be out of the question.

 

[jakez4ut]

I think losing Drew Lock really hurt Mizzou's offense. We're basically seeing a post-Bray Dooley offense. He looks okay when he's got an NFL talent who can sling the ball around.

Agreed on your last point. I'm concerned about leadership next year. That's why I think JG coming back is a must. Losing Jennings, Callaway, Bituli, and likely Smith is going to really hurt. JG can be the guy to keep the team moving forward because he's been there, done that in all aspects of college football now.

on defense, i think leadership will be fine with HT and that whole dline coming back.

on offense, if JG does stick around...anyone think he won't have "earned it" from a leadership standpoint?

if he doesn't i look for one of the OL to step up in that role.

 

[KPT_VFL]

It’s honestly amazing how far our Dline has come since beginning of the year. They are fun to watch.

 

[drvenner]

The Good and The Bad

Interestingly, this season ties 2016 for our best Yards Per Play margin of the decade (+.60 YPP). We are gaining 5.71 and allowing 5.11. In 2016, we gained 6.44 and allowed 5.84. I highly suspect Vandy will further increase this margin.

2017 we were -1.17
2018 we were -.21
Now +.60

Most playoff teams are +1.5 and higher typically. If we continue this rate of improvement, maybe we reach such a level in 1-2 years.

Yet, we are still only +1.2 in scoring margin and this shows our deficiencies in situational football imo. YPP margin is great because it shows if you are straight up beating your opponent play in and play out. What it doesn't show you is how you play at inflection points and that comes with experience, coaching, extra practices.

3rd down defense is still 13th in the conference, while red zone TD% allowed is 11th. Red zone TD% on offense has clearly held us back, we all know that. Offensive turnovers have also hurt us. 4 of the playoff contending teams are in the top 10 in TO margin, all at +9 or better on the year. LSU is the lowest of them, at +3. We are just +1 all season. 32nd in gaining them, but 81st in turning it over, with INTs being the worst at 86th nationally. Some TOs were doubly painful, because 5 were right in the red zone.

Anyway, already beating our opponents this much play-in and play-out is great. It took Butch 4 years to do it this well. Now we just need to hone our situational play moving forward. 15 extra practices each December is a good start.

Super impressive. Thanks for posting.

 

[Crazy Ivan]

SEC OFFENSIVE LINEMAN OF THE WEEK:
Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee

• Had Tennessee's highest offensive line grade and totaled six knockdowns as the Vols totaled a season-best 526 yards of total offense, including 415 passing yards, at Missouri in a 24-20 win.
• Smith was dominant against one of the nation's best defenses. Missouri entered the game allowing only 297.6 total yards (10th in the nation) and had the SEC's best pass defense, allowing only 165.9 yards through the air per game (sixth in the nation).
• Smith enabled QB Jarrett Guarantano to become only the third Vol QB to pass for 415 yards as UT had three 100-yard receivers for the first time in school history.

"Tennessee has now had at least one player earn an SEC Player of the Week award for four-straight games."

Guarantano, Trey Smith Earn SEC Player of the Week Honors | RTI

 

[scvolfan7]

I am not even gonna be mad when he leaves. I hope he gets a Brinks truck full of money $$$

Yeah he needs to go get drafted. The draft this spring will help more than wins and losses this fall. Plus that was his promise to his mom before she passed

 

[drvenner]

In the 2nd year our game/clock management should be better


Taking a TO before even running a play right before half was inexcusable and eventually made us play conservative with 8 seconds left and no TOs. If we had that TO left it’s easier to run a play with 8 seconds left


This is the kind of issue that gets lost when you win but must be fixed

I agree. We got to the 8 but could have thrown it in the endzone at least once with better management.

 

[JohnnyD1024]

 

[drvenner]

That. Is. Franking. Awesome!

 

[BearCat204]

well, i mean in some cases, the eye test is right.

w/out scoreboards telling you who's better, conversations like this simply boil down to "who do you think is better? Bama or Utah? which one of those two is one of the 4 best teams in the country?"

so if you're asking me, i think if Bama played Utah, Bama would be a low double digit favorte.....

the playoffs really started last weekend...weekend before for some others (PSU/MN/OSU/OR)....some won and advanced, others didn't....and it'll continue this weekend for Bama, OSU, Utah....and OU to a certain extent.

I dont think bammer beats Utah with Mac Jones at QB. Yes he put up numbers this past weekend, but A)it was against a high school team and B) the only times they let him thrown downfield, it was awful. Having a gameplan to only throw short passes behind the LoS may work against Carolina High, but it wont work against a really good defense in Utah. If Utah wins out, they deserve to be in the playoff. Bammer has no business being there when their only win against a ranked team would be against a bad Auburn team and an even worse aTm team.

 

[zhangliao04]

I remember hearing someone on the radio talk about the average turn-around for a HC from Year 1 to Year 2 being a +1-2 in the W-column. Pruitt about to get a +3.

 

[SoilVol]

So Big 10 #2 gonna play SEC 5 or 6?

Michigan and Penn State are 4 and 5 in the Big 10. Minnesota and Wisconsin are ahead of them.

 

[jakez4ut]

I dont think bammer beats Utah with Mac Jones at QB. Yes he put up numbers this past weekend, but A)it was against a high school team and B) the only times they let him thrown downfield, it was awful. Having a gameplan to only throw short passes behind the LoS may work against Carolina High, but it wont work against a really good defense in Utah. If Utah wins out, they deserve to be in the playoff. Bammer has no business being there when their only win against a ranked team would be against a bad Auburn team and an even worse aTm team.

they'll have to make that argument stick in the committee room.......and that's all i'm really getting at here.

mac jones or no, i'd just be feeding 22...and see if Utah's defense has anything for that guy.....lol. and they still have NFL WR's out there....

i sitll say Bama beats them by 10-17pts....

the saddest part about this whole scenario is that there's really not a whole lot to discern teams 4-8 right now, so it's gonna be difficult to make a case that sticks for anyone.

and in that scenario, i think that still favors bama, because there's a level of trust that Bama 'just is' one of the 4 best.

ideally, Auburn beats them this weekend and removes them from consideration. and GT beats UGA. and just for fun, let Michigan beat OSU.

that'd be great.

then stick whoever you want in there at 4. lol.

i still say the easiest way to settle this is just use the old BCS formulas and let the top 4 teams play. they screwed this whole thing up by doing this committee thing.....it's a ish show.

 

[drvenner]

Tim Priest said that on both blocks, Joe Doyle was too close to the LOS. That made the blocks a simple matter of timing with the DL jumps.

How does that happen?

 

[SoilVol]

So here's how I expect to see things shake out.

#1 College Football Playoff - SEC Champ goes (Georgia or LSU), LSU with 1 loss can also go...I doubt Alabama with 1 loss makes it, without Tua
#2 Citrus Bowl vs Big Ten - 1 loss Bama vs Minnesota/Wisconsin (whoever wins their game and then loses to Ohio State)
#3 Outback Bowl vs Big Ten - Georgia/Florida vs Penn State
#4 Gator Bowl vs ACC or Big Ten - Florida/Auburn from the SEC seems most likely and you still have Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan
#5 Music City Bowl vs ACC or Big Ten - Whoever doesn't get the Gator Bowl/Tennessee vs Minnesota/Wisconsin/Michigan or Louisville/Virginia/VA Tech/Wake Forest


Now if somehow 2 SEC teams go to the CFP then we've got a shot at the Gator Bowl, but the bowls are listed in order of "picking". So I expect at least 4 or 5 SEC teams picked before us: LSU, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Auburn (in that order unless Bama/LSU get beat in upsets).

ACC could end up in this order (assuming Virginia wins against VA Tech
1. Clemson 13-0 (9-0)
2. Virginia 9-4 (6-3)
3. VA Tech 8-4 (5-3)
4. Louisville 8-4 (5-3)
5. Wake Forest 9-3 (5-3)
6. Pittsburgh 8-4 (5-3)
7. Miami 7-5 (5-3)

So most likely going to the Music City or the Gator Bowl is Virginia Tech, Louisville or Wake Forest. Clemson will go to the CFP and Virginia would be heading to the Camping World Bowl.



So I'll make the prediction we draw the Music City Bowl and face either Virginia Tech/Louisville/Wake Forest from ACC or Wisconsin/Michigan/Iowa from the Big Ten

Forgetting that the #2 Big10 goes to the Rose Bowl.

 

[BearCat204]

they'll have to make that argument stick in the committee room.......and that's all i'm really getting at here.

mac jones or no, i'd just be feeding 22...and see if Utah's defense has anything for that guy.....lol. and they still have NFL WR's out there....

i sitll say Bama beats them by 10-17pts....

the saddest part about this whole scenario is that there's really not a whole lot to discern teams 4-8 right now, so it's gonna be difficult to make a case that sticks for anyone.

and in that scenario, i think that still favors bama, because there's a level of trust that Bama 'just is' one of the 4 best.

ideally, Auburn beats them this weekend and removes them from consideration. and GT beats UGA. and just for fun, let Michigan beat OSU.

that'd be great.

then stick whoever you want in there at 4. lol.

i still say the easiest way to settle this is just use the old BCS formulas and let the top 4 teams play. they screwed this whole thing up by doing this committee thing.....it's a ish show.

The problem is that it is always subjective and there really isnt an exact formula to it. If a team doesnt play for their conference title and doesnt win it, they should not leapfrog a conference champion with the same record unless........there is a no doubt consensus that the team who didnt win their title is much better than the conference champ. You cant say that bammer is much better than Utah with Mac Jones at QB, I dont care what talent he has around him. He cant throw the ball downfield and bammer hasnt shown this year that they can rely on the run game. They need to do away with this committee BS and make this whole thing a real playoff. Play one less regular season game and expand the playoffs.

 

[pismonque]

How does that happen?

Maybe there was a disruption in the earth's magnetic field that threw off his magnetoreceptors and adversely affected his internal geopositioning. Or he had a brain fart.

 

[Crazy Ivan]

How does that happen?

Mizzou uses the metric system and those extra hashes on the field confused Doyle.

 

[butchna]

How does that happen?

I’d go with horrible coaching. Pruitt gonna need to “put his hands on” Sherrer.

 

[chargervol]

well, i mean in some cases, the eye test is right.

w/out scoreboards telling you who's better, conversations like this simply boil down to "who do you think is better? Bama or Utah? which one of those two is one of the 4 best teams in the country?"

so if you're asking me, i think if Bama played Utah, Bama would be a low double digit favorte.....

the playoffs really started last weekend...weekend before for some others (PSU/MN/OSU/OR)....some won and advanced, others didn't....and it'll continue this weekend for Bama, OSU, Utah....and OU to a certain extent.

Means the playoff would be worked differently than the rest of the rankings tho.
Like those highly ranked teams we were crushing in bowl games. I'm guessing everyone knew we 4 loss SEC teams were better by the eye test but yet, still ranked them higher.

They'll never be accused of consistency lol.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

I'd love to get a 2 loss Minnesota (overrated) matchup and put a beating on 'em.

Bonus...we would get to hear Hank slobber over PJ Dreck, and tell us every day for a month how we have zero chance of beating such a coaching giant with our stupid hick redneck head coach...

 

[MoCo_Vol]

I remember hearing someone on the radio talk about the average turn-around for a HC from Year 1 to Year 2 being a +1-2 in the W-column. Pruitt about to get a +3 with a chance at +4.

5-7 to 8-5 is just a +3 isn't it?

they'll have to make that argument stick in the committee room.......and that's all i'm really getting at here.

mac jones or no, i'd just be feeding 22...and see if Utah's defense has anything for that guy.....lol. and they still have NFL WR's out there....

i sitll say Bama beats them by 10-17pts....

the saddest part about this whole scenario is that there's really not a whole lot to discern teams 4-8 right now, so it's gonna be difficult to make a case that sticks for anyone.

and in that scenario, i think that still favors bama, because there's a level of trust that Bama 'just is' one of the 4 best.

ideally, Auburn beats them this weekend and removes them from consideration. and GT beats UGA. and just for fun, let Michigan beat OSU.

that'd be great.

then stick whoever you want in there at 4. lol.

i still say the easiest way to settle this is just use the old BCS formulas and let the top 4 teams play. they screwed this whole thing up by doing this committee thing.....it's a ish show.

To be fair, Utah's defense isn't bush league or anything.

#1 in rushing defense, giving up just 55.9 yards a game
#4 in scoring defense, giving up just 10.9 points a game
#17 in passing defense, giving up just 187.9 yards a game
#3 in total defense, giving up just 243.8 yards a game


Also while looking that info up, Tennessee is 24th in passing defense & 32nd in total defense!

 

[Catbone]

Pruitt is about to tie the SEC record of that team.

I'll allow it.

Btw I wonder if I can get everyone on here to ignore me and eventually I end up only replying to myself. I figure I'm about half way there

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

Tim Priest said that on both blocks, Joe Doyle was too close to the LOS. That made the blocks a simple matter of timing with the DL jumps.

How does that even happen? I mean how did nobody notice it, especially how did Cimaglia not notice?...weird stuff.