Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

[drvenner]

I was wondering why the frisbee was getting bigger, and then it finally hit me!

Glad you threw that one out there.

 

[drvenner]

Unpopular opinion, but Tayven Jackson reminds me a lot of JG, look at his stats and tell me he is SEC caliber. His rank is what JGs should’ve been
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I think the one factor you have to consider here is Heupel. There are very few people in the country who would argue that he does not know QB. If he took Jackson, then I think we have to trust that he is not JG.

 

[drvenner]

Nah, I'm just always interested in the facts of things. This (comparing the 247 talent rankings to final rankings) is a project I have been working on for some time. I'm going to post it once I get the database wide enough and update it annually so we can track it.

No doubt that the facts are brutal for us. I am probably a bit over-sensitive about it, but we do have a lot of fans who like to remind us how bad we are. I will take you off that list. Looking forward to your next post.

 

[drvenner]

I didn't tell anyone they couldn't make fun of anyone else. I prefer to rip other teams on things that are objectively true. The best thing to hammer UGA fans on is 1980. It's true, and they hate it. You can have a great deal of fun with it. I tell my law partners who are UGA grads that their cheerleaders from 1980 have been on Medicare for a decade, etc. Like I said, I've been pulling that data bit by bit for awhile now. When I complete the research, I am going to post it so we can track it on an annual basis.

I went to the "not make fun of them" because you replied to a post that was making fun of Georgia and said we are the most underachieving team by far. That is what got my dander up. As I stated a few minutes ago, I look forward to your next data dump, though I know it will be painful to witness. And, yes, 1980 works very well.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Have I mentioned that no one underachieves yearly like uga does?

Kirby better be careful or he’s gonna get richt’d soon.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

I'll tell you the same thing I tell all the other Georgia fans.

1980.

Clever. I am a Georgia fan because I think Smart is a good coach. Such a sophomoric take you have.

 

[HankHill]

You're not gonna become a Georgia fan, are you

Oh hell no but I’ll take 10-2 every year. As should every person in America who isn’t a fan of bama, Clemson, Ohio state, or Oklahoma.

 

[Volnukem]

"Average recruiting ranking" is not a static number over a 10 year period though, the talent on any given team fluctuates from year to year, that's why the 247 talent composite is the best measure to use for making the kind of comparisons you want to make, it takes into account transfers, dropouts, non-qualifiers, medical retirements, people removed for disciplinary reasons, etc. on a yearly basis.

For example, let's look at LSU over the last 4 seasons, and you'll see what I'm talking about, statistics are a source of "lies" when people don't compare apples to apples.

2017 (LSU's composite talent rank # 6, the composite ranking of all the other teams for that particular year are ranked below)

BYU, W, # 52
Chattanooga, W, NR
Miss State, L, # 25
Syracuse, W, # 62
Troy, L, # 116
Florida, W, # 17
Auburn, W, # 8
Ole Miss, W, # 18
Alabama, L, # 1
Arkansas, W, # 22
Tennessee, W, # 12
Texas A&M, W, # 15
Notre Dame, L, # 10

If you go by pure numbers, assuming for example that # 6 should always beat # 7 and so forth, which we all know it's never that simple, but assuming it is, LSU should have gone 12-1 against this schedule in 2017, but went 9-4.

2018 (LSU's composite talent rank # 7)

Miami, W, # 17
SE Louisiana, W, # 134
Auburn, W, # 14
Louisiana Tech, W
Ole Miss, W, # 22
Florida, L, # 12
Georgia, W, # 3
Mississippi State, W, # 23
Alabama, L, # 2
Arkansas, W, # 27
Rice, W, # 106
Texas A&M, L, # 16
UCF, W, # 56

If you go by pure numbers, which again, has flaws such as not taking into account home and away or differences in QB play, which can make a big difference among closely matched teams, LSU should have gone, 11-2 against this schedule, but went 10-3.

2019 (LSU's composite talent rank # 5)

Georgia Southern, W, # 102
Texas, W, # 7
NW State, W, NR
Vanderbilt, W, # 52
Utah State, W, # 97
Florida, W, # 15
Mississippi State, W, # 23
Auburn, W, # 13
Alabama, W, # 1
Ole Miss, W, # 25
Arkansas, W, # 26
Texas A&M, W, # 12
Georgia, W, # 3
Oklahoma, W, # 8
Clemson, W, # 9

Going strictly by numbers, LSU should have gone 13-2 against this slate, but went 15-0.

2020 (LSU's composite talent rank # 6)

Miss State, L, # 23
Vandy, W, # 54
Missouri, L, # 50
South Carolina, W, # 21
Auburn, L, # 14
Arkansas, W, # 25
Texas A&M, L, # 11
Alabama, L, # 2
Florida, W, # 7
Ole Miss, W, # 29

Going strictly by numbers, LSU should have gone 9-1 against this schedule but actually went 5-5.

So over a 4 year period, going by their talent composite numbers, LSU is underachieving by 6 games. I'm not breaking down Tennessee or Bama or Georgia or Florida at this time, but as you can see, teams fluctuate in talent from year to year, and if you break those teams or any others down this way, by talent composite, by year, going strictly by the rankings, that would be comparing apples to apples.

I’m fully aware. The point of that exercise was to say point out the flaw in Catbone using the average and the total record to say we have underachieved more.

Also, if you don’t want to go through all of the work. Dave Bartoo has already done the analysis you are trying to do. He calls the metric coach effect.

 

[HankHill]

Yeah right. After 2 back-to-back 10 win seasons people would be getting impatient waiting for the SEC titles.

Those people are impossible to please lol

 

[drvenner]

Clever. I am a Georgia fan because I think Smart is a good coach. Such a sophomoric take you have.

Irony is irony.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I went to the "not make fun of them" because you replied to a post that was making fun of Georgia and said we are the most underachieving team by far. That is what got my dander up. As I stated a few minutes ago, I look forward to your next data dump, though I know it will be painful to witness. And, yes, 1980 works very well.

No worries man.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

I’m fully aware. The point of that exercise was to say point out the flaw in Catbone using the average and the total record to say we have underachieved more.

Also, if you don’t want to go through all of the work. Dave Bartoo has already done the analysis you are trying to do. He calls the metric coach effect.

I'll try to find it. Thanks.

Edit: looks like he's gone completely behind a pay wall the last few years, but from what I can gather what I was talking about is what he calls a "talent matrix". In predicting games he also factors in location and a third factor "coach effect". I see he once rated Butch Jones as one of the best coaches in America in his third factor so I think I'll save my money.

 

[m1al]

Wtf is this? Is there any context?

Over the line... Harvey Updike got nothing on the dumbass that posted that..

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Oh hell no but I’ll take 10-2 every year. As should every person in America who isn’t a fan of bama, Clemson, Ohio state, or Oklahoma.

Georgia recruits just as well, if not better, than every team on that list, Evan.

 

[Volnukem]

I'll try to find it. Thanks.

Edit: looks like he's gone completely behind a pay wall the last few years, but from what I can gather what I was talking about is what he calls a "talent matrix". In predicting games he also factors in location and a third factor "coach effect". I see he once rated Butch Jones as one of the best coaches in America in his third factor so I think I'll save my money.

That’s funny because coach effect is exactly what you are doing. It’s simple. If a coach beats a team with higher talent (pretty close to 247’s college team talent), they get a +1. If they lose to a less talented team, they get a -1. Butch beat a lot of folks at Cincinnati that had more talented teams. It didn’t translate to here, but your analysis would show the same thing.

 

[99Vol]

Unpopular opinion, but Tayven Jackson reminds me a lot of JG, look at his stats and tell me he is SEC caliber. His rank is what JGs should’ve been
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Or he could be Michael Penix Jr.... just a thought...

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

That’s funny because coach effect is exactly what you are doing. It’s simple. If a coach beats a team with higher talent (pretty close to 247’s college team talent), they get a +1. If they lose to a less talented team, they get a -1. Butch beat a lot of folks at Cincinnati that had more talented teams. It didn’t translate to here, but your analysis would show the same thing.

Like I said, it's behind a pay wall now, but this article and others make it sound like what I was talking about was 1 of his 3 metrics in deriving his formula

"Bartoo’s wildly successful formula for predicting games is easy to understand and can be broken down by his acronym of TLC – Talent, Location and Coaching. Judging by those three metrics alone, Bartoo assigns a plus, a minus or a push rating for each head coach after every game."

Dave Bartoo of CFB Matrix: Tennessee losing to South Carolina not an upset – Saturday Down South

 

[HankHill]

Georgia recruits just as well, if not better, than every team on that list, Evan.

There’s no difference in classes 1-6 really. So that doesn’t really matter to me. The top teams are all pretty much the same talent wise... it’s what happens after that separates Alabama from everyone else. Look at Mac Jones, josh jacobs, and Quinnen Williams 247 profiles.

Georgia fans are delusional and always have been. If the only way you are happy with a season is if it ends in a title, then you need to find a new hobby in today’s CFB. Especially when you have the goat in your conference. If you told me Heupel would have the same exact results as Kirby has had at Georgia up this point, would you not take it? Lol

 

[HankHill]

Unpopular opinion, but Tayven Jackson reminds me a lot of JG, look at his stats and tell me he is SEC caliber. His rank is what JGs should’ve been
View attachment 365765

Have to separate QB traits from Numbers/results Bc no one knows (except coaches who are recruiting him) what is he asked to do within that offense.

 

[Smyrna ATL Vol]

There’s no difference in classes 1-6 really. So that doesn’t really matter to me. The top teams are all pretty much the same talent wise... it’s what happens after that separates Alabama from everyone else. Look at Mac Jones, josh jacobs, and Quinnen Williams 247 profiles.

Georgia fans are delusional and always have been. If the only way you are happy with a season is if it ends in a title, then you need to find a new hobby in today’s CFB. Especially when you have the goat in your conference. If you told me Heupel would have the same exact results as Kirby has had at Georgia up this point, would you not take it? Lol

If we have Kirby’s record the first few years under JH, I will be ecstatic. Plus a playoff appearance, sign me up today.

 

[UTProf]

Over the line... Harvey Updike got nothing on the dumbass that posted that..

I honestly want the back story because even he was working on a story about the girl or an event she was a part to or a witness to, his approach legit gives me the creeps. Even socially inept drunk dudes hitting up grown women don’t sound this creepy. That sounds almost like a parody of a creepy stalker type. It’s just that bad and add in the BS attempt to identify with her struggle and I’m wondering what kind of crazy would turn up if you scanned hard drives.

 

[Leeleesteeth]

There’s no difference in classes 1-6 really. So that doesn’t really matter to me. The top teams are all pretty much the same talent wise... it’s what happens after that separates Alabama from everyone else. Look at Mac Jones, josh jacobs, and Quinnen Williams 247 profiles.

Georgia fans are delusional and always have been. If the only way you are happy with a season is if it ends in a title, then you need to find a new hobby in today’s CFB. Especially when you have the goat in your conference. If you told me Heupel would have the same exact results as Kirby has had at Georgia up this point, would you not take it? Lol

I will concede your point about Saban. Take him out of the equation in the future. Again, Georgia has the best resources, HS coaches, and college ready players around. They pay coaches better than anywhere in the South so many of the top coaches in other states move there to make the money. There is no other instate school to compete with. Nick Saban notwithstanding they should be a playoff team every year. Look at the three you mentioned above. Do you really think they would have developed like they did had they played at UGA?

 

[volbeast33]

There’s no difference in classes 1-6 really. So that doesn’t really matter to me. The top teams are all pretty much the same talent wise... it’s what happens after that separates Alabama from everyone else. Look at Mac Jones, josh jacobs, and Quinnen Williams 247 profiles.

Georgia fans are delusional and always have been. If the only way you are happy with a season is if it ends in a title, then you need to find a new hobby in today’s CFB. Especially when you have the goat in your conference. If you told me Heupel would have the same exact results as Kirby has had at Georgia up this point, would you not take it? Lol

I was the same way during the late 80’s and 90’s...... I even wrote a report in college about us underachieving due to only 3-4 real games a year.....if we can get back to that level.... I will be content and never act that way again.

 

[volbeast33]

I can tell you having taught young people martial arts there is a certain point you have to start keeping a close eye on girls and boys sparring.

I wish I knew where the video was bc it cracked me up...... it said what the media wants you to believe life is like.... one showed an action movie 120-140 pound female beating up all these extremely muscular men.....the one beside it stated reality: it showed a 120-140 pound female yelling at and hitting an overweight guy carrying a styrofoam carton of food in one hand and a beer in the other.... after a short time.... he smacked her with the styrofoam and she fell to the ground..... he walks on to his table and never even spills his beer.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

There’s no difference in classes 1-6 really. So that doesn’t really matter to me. The top teams are all pretty much the same talent wise... it’s what happens after that separates Alabama from everyone else. Look at Mac Jones, josh jacobs, and Quinnen Williams 247 profiles.

Georgia fans are delusional and always have been. If the only way you are happy with a season is if it ends in a title, then you need to find a new hobby in today’s CFB. Especially when you have the goat in your conference. If you told me Heupel would have the same exact results as Kirby has had at Georgia up this point, would you not take it? Lol

So by your own admission, the only fans who should be disappointed by 10-2 every year are Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Clemson.

uga recruits and sends guys to the league better than most of those teams.

To now meh if you’re only happy with championships like find a new hobby bro!



Do you even have a point?