nicksjuzunk
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The date with the big circle around it. Florida week. The Vols have not won this freaking game since 2004. We've been close... agonizingly close, but that accounts for 0 at the end of the day.
I'll be honest... for at least the last two seasons, I have lined this up to be a Tennessee victory. I don't feel too bad about that, because the Vols had the win in their grasps, and let it slip right through their fingers. Pre-season, I had this as a sure-fire win. After the game today, I considered it a likely loss, however a key injury to Florida may have swung it back into the Vols favor. Let's have a look.
Keys to Victory / Need to Know:
1. It's all in your head: Let's get this straight... Florida is in the head of the Tennessee players and fan base. Butch simply called it "the next game on the schedule" yesterday, but we all know it is much more than that. The coaches and players seemed to tighten up in the first games of last season, letting leads get away. This season, they seem disengaged from the game, especially on offense. They need to get out of their own heads and play to their full potential.
2. Full throttle: Through 3, mostly painful weeks, the Tennessee offense has survived on bare bones play calling. I've called it sandbagging for the entire time, and pray that it's the truth. There are a lot of creative, fun elements in the Tennessee offense, and we've seen absolutely none of it this season. I hate the approach. You think no one has access to previous seasons film? Give me a break. It's time to play football, and open up the playbook.
The fear is this. Butch is conservative to a fault. With key injuries on defense, he is more likely to tighten up on offense to eliminate mistakes and turnovers. Truth be told though, the Florida game has recently, and probably again, come down to turnovers at the worst possible times.
3. Avoid turnovers at the worst possible times: Mistake free football. Dobbs will be asked to make plays with his feet, not his arm. This game will likely be a battle of field position, and the Vols can't afford to leave it on the 20 yard line for the Gators to capitalize.
4. Injury impacts: Whose injury situation hurts worse? The Vols probably won't even be able to field a linebacker, the secondary is hurting with Cam likely out for an extended period of time, but Florida has the one that you never want to lose... the QB. Luke Del Rio went down with a knee injury against North Texas, and is likely out for this game.
Austin Appleby, transfer from Purdue steps into the Gator lineup. This is what you can expect from this cat. He is about as average as it gets. As a redshirt freshman, lost out a fall camp battle. A month into last season, he lost his starting job. Of course at Florida, he lost a fall camp battle to Del Rio, so we're not talking about Peyton here.
For his career, he has 19 TD's and 19 INT's. Completion % is Dobbs-like, at 55%, but about 10 yards per completion so he can go down the field a bit. Our hero has not face a TN caliber defense either, so their may be some balls to be found by the secondary. He is a big target, at 6'4" 240, and can run a bit, but he is not a prototypical dual-threat. If the DL can get pressure on him, sacks and interceptions could turn this game around in the Vols favor.
5. Cupcake central: Florida has not been tested... not even close, this season. Their first 3 opponents (UMASS, KY, North Texas) are among the worst in college football. CBS ranks them 123, 95, 127 out of 128 teams. TN has played 44, 55, 88.
The fact is, there defense is likely as good as advertised, but I suspect their offense is benefiting from that cupcake boost. Tennessee would have the same type of effect, if we actually attempted to score against App and Ohio, but I digress.
6. Establish the ground game: This scares me. Florida has a strong front 7, and our offensive line is more like offensive lyin'. More often than not, the team that rushes for the most yards wins this game. Hurd will be grinding away between the tackles for 3 ypc, Kamara will probably only get 4 carries, so a lot falls on Dobbs to carry the run game. Whether scrambling for his life, which you can count on, or a designed run, he needs to will this team to victory.
For Florida, the run game goes through Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine, though they have relied heavily on the injured Del Rio's passing till now. Depending on how much McElwain trusts Appleby, Florida may really press their running game hard, and the TN DL, and whatever humans we can find to put at LB need to be ready to keep them from getting through to the 3rd level. Tennessee has been gouged for 152 yards per game rushing, finally stiffening up this week against Ohio.
Prediction: I'm having a really hard time with this one. On one hand, I want to believe that the coaches and team will be lights out ready for the biggest game of the season, and previous performances reflect that they have indeed been looking ahead. On the other hand, the team has mostly performed as though the lights haven't even come on for most of the season.
ESPN's FPI has TN with a whopping 75.9% chance of winning this game. The talent is there. The game is in Neyland. The only question is, "Have we seen the real Tennessee this season?" If we have, then this is a loss. If they are the team we thought they were, all off-season, then they will win comfortably, get the monkey off their backs, and set the mood for the rest of the season. I'm not sure what the truth is... but I'm choosing to believe in hope this week.
TN 14
FL 13
I'll be honest... for at least the last two seasons, I have lined this up to be a Tennessee victory. I don't feel too bad about that, because the Vols had the win in their grasps, and let it slip right through their fingers. Pre-season, I had this as a sure-fire win. After the game today, I considered it a likely loss, however a key injury to Florida may have swung it back into the Vols favor. Let's have a look.
Keys to Victory / Need to Know:
1. It's all in your head: Let's get this straight... Florida is in the head of the Tennessee players and fan base. Butch simply called it "the next game on the schedule" yesterday, but we all know it is much more than that. The coaches and players seemed to tighten up in the first games of last season, letting leads get away. This season, they seem disengaged from the game, especially on offense. They need to get out of their own heads and play to their full potential.
2. Full throttle: Through 3, mostly painful weeks, the Tennessee offense has survived on bare bones play calling. I've called it sandbagging for the entire time, and pray that it's the truth. There are a lot of creative, fun elements in the Tennessee offense, and we've seen absolutely none of it this season. I hate the approach. You think no one has access to previous seasons film? Give me a break. It's time to play football, and open up the playbook.
The fear is this. Butch is conservative to a fault. With key injuries on defense, he is more likely to tighten up on offense to eliminate mistakes and turnovers. Truth be told though, the Florida game has recently, and probably again, come down to turnovers at the worst possible times.
3. Avoid turnovers at the worst possible times: Mistake free football. Dobbs will be asked to make plays with his feet, not his arm. This game will likely be a battle of field position, and the Vols can't afford to leave it on the 20 yard line for the Gators to capitalize.
4. Injury impacts: Whose injury situation hurts worse? The Vols probably won't even be able to field a linebacker, the secondary is hurting with Cam likely out for an extended period of time, but Florida has the one that you never want to lose... the QB. Luke Del Rio went down with a knee injury against North Texas, and is likely out for this game.
Austin Appleby, transfer from Purdue steps into the Gator lineup. This is what you can expect from this cat. He is about as average as it gets. As a redshirt freshman, lost out a fall camp battle. A month into last season, he lost his starting job. Of course at Florida, he lost a fall camp battle to Del Rio, so we're not talking about Peyton here.
For his career, he has 19 TD's and 19 INT's. Completion % is Dobbs-like, at 55%, but about 10 yards per completion so he can go down the field a bit. Our hero has not face a TN caliber defense either, so their may be some balls to be found by the secondary. He is a big target, at 6'4" 240, and can run a bit, but he is not a prototypical dual-threat. If the DL can get pressure on him, sacks and interceptions could turn this game around in the Vols favor.
5. Cupcake central: Florida has not been tested... not even close, this season. Their first 3 opponents (UMASS, KY, North Texas) are among the worst in college football. CBS ranks them 123, 95, 127 out of 128 teams. TN has played 44, 55, 88.
The fact is, there defense is likely as good as advertised, but I suspect their offense is benefiting from that cupcake boost. Tennessee would have the same type of effect, if we actually attempted to score against App and Ohio, but I digress.
6. Establish the ground game: This scares me. Florida has a strong front 7, and our offensive line is more like offensive lyin'. More often than not, the team that rushes for the most yards wins this game. Hurd will be grinding away between the tackles for 3 ypc, Kamara will probably only get 4 carries, so a lot falls on Dobbs to carry the run game. Whether scrambling for his life, which you can count on, or a designed run, he needs to will this team to victory.
For Florida, the run game goes through Jordan Scarlett and Lamical Perine, though they have relied heavily on the injured Del Rio's passing till now. Depending on how much McElwain trusts Appleby, Florida may really press their running game hard, and the TN DL, and whatever humans we can find to put at LB need to be ready to keep them from getting through to the 3rd level. Tennessee has been gouged for 152 yards per game rushing, finally stiffening up this week against Ohio.
Prediction: I'm having a really hard time with this one. On one hand, I want to believe that the coaches and team will be lights out ready for the biggest game of the season, and previous performances reflect that they have indeed been looking ahead. On the other hand, the team has mostly performed as though the lights haven't even come on for most of the season.
ESPN's FPI has TN with a whopping 75.9% chance of winning this game. The talent is there. The game is in Neyland. The only question is, "Have we seen the real Tennessee this season?" If we have, then this is a loss. If they are the team we thought they were, all off-season, then they will win comfortably, get the monkey off their backs, and set the mood for the rest of the season. I'm not sure what the truth is... but I'm choosing to believe in hope this week.
TN 14
FL 13
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