There's a formula out there that has ~ a 70% likelihood of predicting where a recruit will end up. Note: having a gigantic stadium helps.
Here's a link and some highlights for those who don't want to read the whole thing.
College Football Recruiting Prediction Model
We were a bit surprised by the results. There were a number of factors that we thought would significantly impact the decision of the high school athlete that didnt. For example, factors like the schools graduation rate, the number of Bowl Championship Series (BCS) bowl appearances, the current roster depth at the recruited players position, the number of players from a specific college drafted by the NFL, and even the number of national championships won by a particular program dont systematically influence the decisions of high school athletes. Surprised? So were we. What, then, does matter? As it turns out the following factors DO significantly impact the decision of high school athletes:
Whether the athlete made an official visit to a specific college
Whether the school is in a BCS conference
The distance from the high school athletes hometown to a specific school
Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school
The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition
The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years
Whether the school is currently under a bowl ban for violating NCAA rules
The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules
The size of the teams stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity)
Whether the school has an on-campus stadium
The current age of the teams tadium
So, in a nutshell, high school athletes prefer winning programs that are close to home, are in possession of good physical facilities, and are in good
graces with the NCAA. Interestingly enough however, reduced scholarships increase the likelihood of choosing a particular school, holding all else constant. This is likely because reduced scholarships imply reduced competition for exposure and playing time in the future.
Here's a link and some highlights for those who don't want to read the whole thing.
College Football Recruiting Prediction Model
We were a bit surprised by the results. There were a number of factors that we thought would significantly impact the decision of the high school athlete that didnt. For example, factors like the schools graduation rate, the number of Bowl Championship Series (BCS) bowl appearances, the current roster depth at the recruited players position, the number of players from a specific college drafted by the NFL, and even the number of national championships won by a particular program dont systematically influence the decisions of high school athletes. Surprised? So were we. What, then, does matter? As it turns out the following factors DO significantly impact the decision of high school athletes:
Whether the athlete made an official visit to a specific college
Whether the school is in a BCS conference
The distance from the high school athletes hometown to a specific school
Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school
The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition
The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years
Whether the school is currently under a bowl ban for violating NCAA rules
The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules
The size of the teams stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity)
Whether the school has an on-campus stadium
The current age of the teams tadium
So, in a nutshell, high school athletes prefer winning programs that are close to home, are in possession of good physical facilities, and are in good
graces with the NCAA. Interestingly enough however, reduced scholarships increase the likelihood of choosing a particular school, holding all else constant. This is likely because reduced scholarships imply reduced competition for exposure and playing time in the future.
