Remaining BBall Schedule RPI Breakdown...

#1
gardners_51609

gardners_51609

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#1
With our remaining schedule we have 11 games left. Our RPI is currently 73 (according to ESPN), from a strictly RPI standpoint we will be favored in 7 of the final 11 games...

Opponent and RPI
Ark- 93
UGA-144
USCe-178
Vandy-138
UK-50
LSU-120
Texas A&M-72
Fla.-6
UGA-144
Aub.-223
Mizzou-28

Of the 4 in bold we need to win 2 of them in order to get to 20 wins and most likely a berth into the tourney. Three of these games are at TBA and only Texas A&M is on the road. I think it is still possible for us to go to the tourney, but we have to take care of buisness. Just my thoughts GBO!!
 
#2
#2
gardners_51609 said:
With our remaining schedule we have 11 games left. Our RPI is currently 73 (according to ESPN), from a strictly RPI standpoint we will be favored in 7 of the final 11 games...

Opponent and RPI
Ark- 93
UGA-144
USCe-178
Vandy-138
UK-50
LSU-120
Texas A&M-72
Fla.-6
UGA-144
Aub.-223
Mizzou-28

Of the 4 in bold we need to win 2 of them in order to get to 20 wins and most likely a berth into the tourney. Three of these games are at TBA and only Texas A&M is on the road. I think it is still possible for us to go to the tourney, but we have to take care of buisness. Just my thoughts GBO!!
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By tourney I assume you mean the NCAA. If we win twenty games regular season, and one or two in the SEC tourney, I believe we are guaranteed a slot. Lots of ball to be played. Nice post.
GO VOLS!
 
#3
#3
I am worried about the game tomorrow and the way Arky dominates opponents at home. Until this team actually picks up a road win...it's hard for me to see any type of tourney run. A win tomorrow will go a very long way toward that run.
 
#4
#4
If this team wins 20 games it will still need to make a good run in the SEC tournament to lock a spot down. Unfortunately its looks like one of the play in games is a best case scenario right now.
 
#5
#5
I think we have a less-than-50% chance of winning tomorrow.
It's way too early to be staring at the big picture. Until this team wins a road game, they're not even a Bubble team.
 
#6
#6
Even if we do win 3 or the 4 then there's no way we sweep the rest and get to 20. Cuonzo's a good coach, but injuries are killing this team.
 
#7
#7
UTjonez said:
If this team wins 20 games it will still need to make a good run in the SEC tournament to lock a spot down. Unfortunately its looks like one of the play in games is a best case scenario right now.
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That's very inaccurate. 20 wins regular season would probably lock Tennessee into the dance regardless of their performance at the Sect.

And one of the play in games? You think we're gonna finish in the bottom 4?
 
#8
#8
Win these next 4 and things get interesting...we go 3-1 and we'll have to beat one of the "big dogs".
 
#9
#9
:)We are not going dancing in the big dance, might get to go to the junior prom like NIT.
 
#11
#11
I doubt this team makes the NCAA tournament. We have too many problem areas and can lose to anyone.

1. Shaky PG play.
2. One of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the conference.
3. Only have one reliable big man who gets in foul trouble.
4. Poor free throw shooting team.

With those 4 problem areas, how can anyone think we reach 19-20 wins?
 
#13
#13
I think our most consistent 3pt shooter over the past five seasons has been Chism. That's a problem.
 
#14
#14
Courtesy of rpi forecast, heres a breakdown of Tennessee's RPI by potential wins.
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-8 25.5 0.02%
21-9 38.9 0.35%
20-10 48.3 1.81%
19-11 57.7 7.78%
18-12 68.6 15.90%

Because other elements of Tennessee's resume are solid (e.g some decent wins and no bad losses) anything in the 40's and the vols are in, while the 50's would put them in heavy consideration. Something to note if Tennessee goes 20-10, they probably won't play in the SEC tourney until Friday. Further, their opponent would be decent enough that a loss would likely not drop the RPI much. Keep in mind that every other bubble team is in a similar situation (e.g going to probably get a loss). I would say that 20-10 and you're in, 19-11 you need one SECT win to feel safe, and 18-12 would need 2 wins for consideration and 3 to feel safe.
 
#15
#15
If Tennessee finds a way to win tomorrow, then I would expect the next month to go pretty smooth.
 
#16
#16
SCowlsVOL said:
I think we have to beat one of the big ones no matter what. Wichitaw state is out beat win. We need another good one.
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We play 3 big dogs not 4 my bad. Mizzou, Florida and Kentcky all one time remaining, and then 8 games against average or below average SEC teams. We are 11-8 (3-4) now, say you lose to the 3, but win the rest you're 19-11 (11-9) and a RPI around 58. Win one in the SECT and I think that'd get them in.
 
#17
#17
volfan199 said:
Courtesy of rpi forecast, heres a breakdown of Tennessee's RPI by potential wins.
Final Record Expected RPI Probability
22-8 25.5 0.02%
21-9 38.9 0.35%
20-10 48.3 1.81%
19-11 57.7 7.78%
18-12 68.6 15.90%

Because other elements of Tennessee's resume are solid (e.g some decent wins and no bad losses) anything in the 40's and the vols are in, while the 50's would put them in heavy consideration. Something to note if Tennessee goes 20-10, they probably won't play in the SEC tourney until Friday. Further, their opponent would be decent enough that a loss would likely not drop the RPI much. Keep in mind that every other bubble team is in a similar situation (e.g going to probably get a loss). I would say that 20-10 and you're in, 19-11 you need one SECT win to feel safe, and 18-12 would need 2 wins for consideration and 3 to feel safe.
Click to expand...

This is exactly how I feel. 20 wins is the magic number IMO.
 
#18
#18
bleedingTNorange said:
We play 3 big dogs not 4 my bad. Mizzou, Florida and Kentcky all one time remaining, and then 8 games against average or below average SEC teams. We are 11-8 (3-4) now, say you lose to the 3, but win the rest you're 19-11 (11-9) and a RPI around 58. Win one in the SECT and I think that'd get them in.
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If we win tomorrow then I'll start to believe that there is really a chance we could really make a drive to the tourney. It's just hard for me to see it happening without golden, even though he's not been playing that well this season. You had it right. I believe a&m is a big game too.
 
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#19
#19
SCowlsVOL said:
If we win tomorrow then I'll start to believe that there is really a chance we could really make a drive to the tourney. It's just hard for me to see it happening without golden, even though he's not been playing that well this season. You had it right. I believe a&m is a big game too.
Click to expand...

It's hard for me to see it happening with Golden. We weren't any good with him either.

My attitude right now is win today or bust. Meaning, we beat Arkansas and I'll start to truly believe in this team. Otherwise, my overall attitude won't change, which is that this is just an average, 'meh' sort of team. An NIT team.

So I'm really not looking past today. Not right now. This is our Super Bowl. Haha.
 
#20
#20
SCowlsVOL said:
If we win tomorrow then I'll start to believe that there is really a chance we could really make a drive to the tourney. It's just hard for me to see it happening without golden, even though he's not been playing that well this season. You had it right. I believe a&m is a big game too.
Click to expand...

I'm in no way suggesting we WILL make it, just IMO what it would take. If we win today that'll be a huge step in the right direction. Show we can win on the road against a pretty decent team, would give us confidence going to lesser teams places the rest of the season.
 
#21
#21
utfan72408 said:
It's hard for me to see it happening with Golden. We weren't any good with him either.

My attitude right now is win today or bust. Meaning, we beat Arkansas and I'll start to truly believe in this team. Otherwise, my overall attitude won't change, which is that this is just an average, 'meh' sort of team. An NIT team.

So I'm really not looking past today. Not right now. This is our Super Bowl. Haha.
Click to expand...

I agree with everything you said. Golden just hasn't been as good as last yr in any part of his game to be honest. One game he will play good the next few not good at all. Arkansas lol is def our superbowl. We aren't that great of a team this yr. Losing maymon was huge. He is our engine from the looks of it. Next yr is judgement yr for coach and we will have the potential to be really good, not including injuries which is bound to happen.
 
#22
#22
bleedingTNorange said:
I'm in no way suggesting we WILL make it, just IMO what it would take. If we win today that'll be a huge step in the right direction. Show we can win on the road against a pretty decent team, would give us confidence going to lesser teams places the rest of the season.
Click to expand...

We def need confidence. What do you think are the keys to todays game? If you want to answer that in the game thread that's fine as well. I know this isn't the arky game thread and I'm off topic.
 
#23
#23
SCowlsVOL said:
We def need confidence. What do you think are the keys to todays game? If you want to answer that in the game thread that's fine as well. I know this isn't the arky game thread and I'm off topic.
Click to expand...

A mod can move my post if they want...

2 of the biggest keys for us every game is tunrovers and free throws. We are a low possession team, or want to be atleast, so every possession and every chance to score is big. Turning the ball over 20 times a game with as few possessions as we get it almost always going to result in a loss. I said at the start of the season <12 should be their target there, and the last 2 games they've stayed below 12 and won both.

They like to play fast, and they like the game to be in the upper 70s or 80s. Obviously we like to slow it down and prefer the game in the low 60s...so who dictates tempo could really be something to watch.

They've got a couple studs in Young & Powell. I assume Richardson will draw young, but who knows. Powell is 6'7" 240 and can step out and hit the 3 consistently, so I'm guessing hall will be on him when he's in.

I really think it comes down to who forces the other team to play their style. South Carolina got Arkansas to play slow down ugly ball and they crushed Arkansas...hopefully we can do the same.
 
#24
#24
SCowlsVOL said:
We def need confidence. What do you think are the keys to todays game? If you want to answer that in the game thread that's fine as well. I know this isn't the arky game thread and I'm off topic.
Click to expand...

Arky thrives at home on transition.
Control the boards on both ends and take care of the ball.
12 or less TOs.
 
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