Revisiting an earlier issue

#3
#3
It's amazing how I disagree with every single prediction that I see in that link.
 
#4
#4
Please explain anything in that post that can be seen as 'ignorant'. Simply because I posit something that differs from conventional wisdom does that make me ignorant? Please I would enjoy hearing any substantive retorts that do not involve cliched statements. :)
 
#5
#5
Originally posted by volman04@Aug 2, 2005 5:11 PM
Please explain anything in that post that can be seen as 'ignorant'. Simply because I posit something that differs from conventional wisdom does that make me ignorant? Please I would enjoy hearing any substantive retorts that do not involve cliched statements. :)
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Ignorant may be too strong of a word but the author recognizes that the sample size is a problem. If he/she knows this, then he/she should know that you can draw zero conclusions with that sample size.

It's like saying, "I know the sky is blue but if you ignore that the sky is blue, I've shown how it is actually yellow" (a bit of a stretch but you get the idea)
 
#6
#6
Tennessee was a 4 or 5 win SEC team that won 7 games thanks in large part to a number of good breaks. In my opinion, Tennessee should be favored to finish the season ranked 3rd.....


What if's are stupid. Tennessee was a 4 or 5 win team that won 7 games? That's the problem. Tennessee WAS A 7 WIN team that could have won only 4 or 5. In football anything can happen. Ask Clint Stoerner. If Clint Stoerner didn't fumble then UT would not have been champion. But guess what he did and UT was the Champion. That's the kind of thing that happens in a game. Why was Florida 4-4 if they scored so many points and held their opponents to nothing? Why did UGA lose to UT since they scored so many points? Because sh.t happens. Did this UT hater take into consideration we started two freshman quarterbacks. 7 games to Chrissy Leak's 4. Hahahaha

This year we win 8.

If Ainge would have been a sophmore, Jr., or Sr,. last year maybe we would have beaten Vandy by 50. This guy probably wrote an article about the Stoerner fumble too and how Kansas State should have been the National Champion since they beat everyone 60-14. Oohhhhhhhh that one loss kills ya.
 

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#7
#7
Looks like it worked well for the teams that were picked low and not so good for teams that were picked higher...It doesn't take a math major to see that there is no real science taking place here. I wonder if he works for Phil Steele!
 
#8
#8
Well, I will start by saying your ideas clearly prove you were never a competitive athlete. You are trying to predict a very emotional game played by young men with a mathematical formula. That will never work. Injuries, suspensions, family matters, class pressures, team chemistry, etc. will always influence the outcome and can never be taken into account w/ that formula. Try your formula w/ the past NC's and see who was supposed to win and who actually did.

As Kenny Mayne says, "That's why games aren't played on paper."
 
#9
#9
This is an example of a man with far too much time on his hands using an entirely nonsensical argument to make himself look like an idiot.

I can do that with far less effort. :p
 
#10
#10
Originally posted by OldVol@Aug 2, 2005 6:36 PM
This is an example of a man with far too much time on his hands using an entirely nonsensical argument to make himself look like an idiot.

I can do that with far less effort.  :p
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:eek:lol: :eek:lol: :eek:lol: :eek:lol:
 
#11
#11
Since I was asked, here is what I see as ignorant.

1) That formula has absolutely nothing to do with the Pythagorean Theorem. Pythagoras wrote A^2 + B^2 = C^2 (actually he wrote alpha^2 + beta^2 = gamma^2) not A^2/ (A^2 + B^2) = %. Since Pythagoras was talking exclusively about right triangles I find it hard to make a link. And just because you square 3 terms in an equation doesn't automatically make it the Pythagorean theorem of (insert topic here). My gosh learn geometry.

2) If I predicted something that allowed an error rate of 25%, I wouldn't be too proud of that.

3) There are so many variables that play into a football or any other game, except maybe jacks, that writing a simple equation couldn't possibly take them into account, and we are not even getting into the intangibles yet.

4) Your results are not statistically sound, they do not follow a bell distribution, they are considerably top heavy. This goes hand in hand with number 3. In other words you are missing something significant.

I assure you I "could" go on, but I won't

Have a nice day.
 
#12
#12
Originally posted by volman04@Aug 2, 2005 6:11 PM
Please I would enjoy hearing any substantive retorts that do not involve cliched statements. :)
]How often does a team's Pythagorean conference projection differ from its actual conference record by 2 games or more? The answer is not very often.​
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2 games is WAY to large a MOE for an 8 game conference schedule.​
 
#13
#13
Didn't we shoot this crap down already? Since you are going to be repetitive, so am I (as already posted):

Now THAT my friend, is a person with too much time on his hands. If you notice, he's in Columbia, SC, which explains a lot. I do hope, however, that since he is a "student," he is not planning on submitting this as a senior thesis. Otherwise, he'll be a 24-year-old "student" next year.

This is great: "Some will tell you that winning close games is the sign of a good football team and that it shows character and determination. I am inclined to replace the words 'character' and 'determination' with 'luck'."

A true student of the game, eh? Hitting the double-zero on the roulette wheel is luck. Goal-line stands, game-winning field goals, forced turnovers, and hurry-up scoring drives qualify as "character" and "determination" in my book.

Of course, I probably am about as qualified as this buffoon to author a web page on football rankings. BUT. . . . you can search far and wide and "google" till your eyes fall out, and you will fail to find my "Astrological Proof that Steve Spurrier Will Not Win at South Carolina" page.

Oh, and Matt: congrats in advance on yet another 4th place finish in the SEC East.
 
#14
#14
Sabermetrics can work in baseball as baseball is a VERY statistically driven game. Football OTOH is not. UF outscoring their SEC opponents by 64 points and then going 4-4 is enough proof of this for me.

On a similar note, from a sample of the Washington Nationals performance in the first half of this baseball season, would the sabermetrics be able to predict what their record was? Not a chance in hell.
 
#15
#15
Actually, it might have. They won a ton of one-run games, right? Means they barely outscore their opponnents. So that system, like others have said, might hold some validity in baseball.
 
#16
#16
Seems I am being a little misunderstood here. I am merely stating that Tennessee was not as dominant in the SEC as their record would indicate. Therefore it is proably a good idea when predicting their performance this year, to err on the side of caution. By no means do I think Tennessee will be a bad team, but I don't see them winning the SEC either. As for the Washington Nationals, haven't they been losing those one run games recently? Pythagoras giveths and takeths away.
 
#17
#17
Only one team in the SEC beat UT last season. A 7-1 record is pretty good in my book. Also, winning close games is the sign of a tough team, not "luck". You picked a stupid formula that has been proven to have a margin of error of 25%. Math like that may fly in SC but it doesn't in TN.
 
#18
#18
1) Where do u get the 25% error?
2) The formula is designed to predict future performance so it is best to look at what a team really was.
3) Point differential is a pretty good indicator of how good a team really is.

Yes Tennessee won 7 games, I am not disputing that, but when looking ahead to this year, it is best to curb your enthusiasm and realize they were not as dominant as their record indicated.
 
#21
#21
"Then the conferences are determined and the top teams nationally are hand picked from the conferences top teams. The preseason rankings are a prediction of how the season will conclude before the bowl games."

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :dunno:
 
#22
#22
Its no where near as ignorant as ucsrankings. Maybe if i picked vandy to win the SEC it would be.
 
#23
#23
Originally posted by volman04@Aug 3, 2005 8:58 PM
Its no where near as ignorant as ucsrankings. Maybe if i picked vandy to win the SEC it would be.
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You may have a point there.
 
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