Rivals point system and how NSD plays out...

#1
thunder5

thunder5

Cause I like to party
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Jan 19, 2006
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#1
Bear with me guys this is a little long winded...

So I've been tinkering around a little trying to figure out Rivals points system and I think I've got something very close to it:

6.1 = 160, 6.0 = 145, 5.9 = 130, 5.8 = 110, 5.7 = 75, 5.6 = 45, 5.5 = 25, 5.4 = 10

I compared this to a couple of current classes and I got the following results:

UT: 1746 (Rivals), 1740 (my system)
UGA: 1831 (Rivals), 1850 (my system)
UF: 2931 (Rivals), 2960 (my system)

As you can see it's not perfect but it's very close (I'm open to any suggestions as to how to get it exact)...

I've also averaged the point totals for #1 thru #10 in the Rivals rankings over the last 3 classes and came up with the following ranges for the rankings:

#1: > 2850, #2: 2760-2850, #3: 2600-2760, #4: 2485-2600, #5: 2375-2486, #6: 2200-2375, #7: 2140-2200, #8: 2080-2140, #9: 2045-2080, #10: 2000-2045

Based on this system here's my guess at how signing day plays out...

Right now there are 4 players I would consider as having us high on thier list (high meaning they are very close to committing to us)...they are Stone, Bennett, D. Jones, and Rivera...based on their rankings if they all sign we would have 2095 points total...

After that there are 4 other players I would consider as having us at medium (medium meaning we are one of 2-3 schools that they are chosing from)...they are Rogers, Robinson, Nance and C. Smith...

If those four signed we would have a total of 2485 points which historically speaking would put us at 4th on Rivals

Based on this I believe we will finish between 4th and 8th according to Rivals on NSD

Thank you for your time and patience... I now open the floor for your questions or comments..:)
 
#2
#2
Good post. I like your positive attitude and i think you are pretty close on everything you said.
 
#3
#3
Wow, you have alot of time on your hands. But I have to admit, I've tried my hand at different formulas trying to figure their point system out as well. I think we are going to have a top 10 class. And hopefully have a big NSD surprise commit.
 
#4
#4
agree........I think we finish somewhere in there, definitely in the top 10.......I think we can take up to 30 players, assuming 3 of them are sign and place, so I hope we take all 30......... :rock:
 
#5
#5
I wonder if they are weighting the total scores somehow, and that is what is causing the discrepency... Like weighted to total commits.
 
#7
#7
You took a nice shot at it and it is appreciated! I think you are very close and believe we will end up between 6 and 10. I would love to see us at the 4 spot but trying to be real instead of optimistic.

We will see shortly!
VB
 
#8
#8
BuckheadVol1 said:
You took a nice shot at it and it is appreciated! I think you are very close and believe we will end up between 6 and 10. I would love to see us at the 4 spot but trying to be real instead of optimistic.

We will see shortly!
VB
Click to expand...

I agree about finishing 4th...I was just basing that on the historical averages for the #4 spot...

When you consider the classes UF, Bama, Texas and Auburn are putting together it's hard to see us as high as 4th...6 to 10 is probably more realistic....but I don't see us outside the top 10
 
#10
#10
thunder5 said:
I agree about finishing 4th...I was just basing that on the historical averages for the #4 spot...

When you consider the classes UF, Bama, Texas and Auburn are putting together it's hard to see us as high as 4th...6 to 10 is probably more realistic....but I don't see us outside the top 10
Click to expand...

Agree completely! Again, nice work!
 
#11
#11
I have always wondered how their points system worked. Like you said not exact but pretty close.

If we finish 6 - 10 I would be extremely happy!!

Only one problem, we would be still behind 3 - 4 SEC teams!
 
#12
#12
IPorange said:
I wonder if they are weighting the total scores somehow, and that is what is causing the discrepency... Like weighted to total commits.
Click to expand...

Or maybe they rate players to one more decimal than they show on their page. So a player is a 5.92 and they show him as a 5.9 but they put the 5.92 into their system.
 
#16
#16
Nice work! I would be happy with a top 10 class in light of recent events. That would certainly be an achievement and an excellent form of damage control on CDD and staff's part.

The one thing I don't understand is how different Rivals and Scout are when it comes to recruits. Rivals I believe has us currently at #11 and Scout has us at #21...

This makes absolutely no sense to me at all...
 
#18
#18
xXRockyTopXx said:
The one thing I don't understand is how different Rivals and Scout are when it comes to recruits. Rivals I believe has us currently at #11 and Scout has us at #21...This makes absolutely no sense to me at all...
Click to expand...

Nor to the rest of the biped world. I don't even bother checking scouts anymore.
 
#19
#19
The other day, I was cutting fruit in my kitchen and I was like, "Dang! where did I leave my computer?!" Can you help a brother out!?
 
#20
#20
thunder5 said:
Bear with me guys this is a little long winded...

So I've been tinkering around a little trying to figure out Rivals points system and I think I've got something very close to it:

6.1 = 160, 6.0 = 145, 5.9 = 130, 5.8 = 110, 5.7 = 75, 5.6 = 45, 5.5 = 25, 5.4 = 10

I compared this to a couple of current classes and I got the following results:

UT: 1746 (Rivals), 1740 (my system)
UGA: 1831 (Rivals), 1850 (my system)
UF: 2931 (Rivals), 2960 (my system)

As you can see it's not perfect but it's very close (I'm open to any suggestions as to how to get it exact)...

I've also averaged the point totals for #1 thru #10 in the Rivals rankings over the last 3 classes and came up with the following ranges for the rankings:

#1: > 2850, #2: 2760-2850, #3: 2600-2760, #4: 2485-2600, #5: 2375-2486, #6: 2200-2375, #7: 2140-2200, #8: 2080-2140, #9: 2045-2080, #10: 2000-2045

Based on this system here's my guess at how signing day plays out...

Right now there are 4 players I would consider as having us high on thier list (high meaning they are very close to committing to us)...they are Stone, Bennett, D. Jones, and Rivera...based on their rankings if they all sign we would have 2095 points total...

After that there are 4 other players I would consider as having us at medium (medium meaning we are one of 2-3 schools that they are chosing from)...they are Rogers, Robinson, Nance and C. Smith...

If those four signed we would have a total of 2485 points which historically speaking would put us at 4th on Rivals

Based on this I believe we will finish between 4th and 8th according to Rivals on NSD

Thank you for your time and patience... I now open the floor for your questions or comments..:)
Click to expand...

I spent waaaaay too many hours last year playing with excel doing exactly what you are doing.

Here is what I came up with:
Average stars times 1545.018, plus
Number of signees times 35.38395, minus
4300.4

This formula gave me a prediction that was within roughly 100 points (average deviation over the sample size of the top 25 recruiting classes) of the actual rating. Once I got it that close, I said "mission accomplished" and ceased further tweaking.

The formula appears to be a bit scared of heights. It misses on Florida pretty bad, but then settles in after that. A couple of them it weirdly hits nearly right on the nose.

If you want proof that my system is inherently a little bit flawed, look no further than the current rivals rankings and UT vs. UGA. Both teams have 19 signees with average stars of 3.58. My formula predicts 1903. In actuality UGA is 1831 and UT is 1746. So, obviously, rivals is using more criteria than I am. And I initially tried to come up with a formula on a star-by-star basis, but I just ended up getting better results doing it by average stars.

If anyone wants my inherently flawed but still slightly okay spreadsheet, shoot me a PM. I'm happy to send it along (though it sounds like the OP has come up with more precise numbers).
 
#21
#21
Use only a team's top 20 recruits when calculating.

Team Points = H * ( n / ( n + m ) ) + L * ( m / ( n + m ) )

H = potential High score = 250 for every five-star, 140 for every four-star, 75 for every three-star, 20 for every two-star and 10 for every one-star.

L = potential Low score = 18 for every five-star, 12 for every four-star, 8 for every three-star, 3 for every two-star and 1 for every one-star.

m = a constant (by working backwards, it appeared they used 50 as their constant last year)

n = the sum of the following Bonus Points

Bonus Points:

? 10 points for every commit ranked 1 to 10 in the Rivals 100, nine points for every commit ranked 11 to 20, eight points for every commit ranked 21 to 30, and so on down to one point for every commit ranked 91-100.

? 10 points for every commit ranked 1 to 10 in the Rivals Juco 100 or the Rivals Prep 100, nine points for every commit ranked 11 to 20, eight points for every commit ranked 21 to 30, seven points for every commit ranked 31 to 40, and six points every commit ranked 41-50 on those two lists. Evaluate only the top 50 on these two lists, not the entire 100.

? 24 points for every commit that is the Number 1 player at an official Rivals Position Ranking.

? 18 points for every commit that is number two, three, four, or five at an official Rivals Position Ranking.

? 8 points for every commit that is number six through number "X" at an official Rivals Position Ranking. Each position has a different cutoff point ("X"). Example: For kickers, add 8 to n if a commit is ranked from 6 through 10, but at wide receiver add 8 to n if a commit is ranked from 6 through 50.

? Add to n is the amount over 3.00 for the average stars for the entire class, times 100. For example, if your class is an average 3.72 stars, we add 72 to your n.
Click to expand...

After doing an internet search, I saw this posted on another board. This apparently came from a Grad Student majoring in Math at LSU.
 
#22
#22
Bill King knows the formula he would probably confirm it if you emailed him
 
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