RPI in College Baseball

#1
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BruinVol

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#1
Obviously it too early to look at RPIs but I do think looking at the rankings after one weekend show a huge biased slant toward the northern teams.

From what little I know about the formula I know road wins count almost the same as 2 home wins and with the northern teams playing many more games on the road they will get a huge bump.

Looking at warrennolan website I found this extremely eye opening.


Indiana a team picked by some to go back to Omaha lost 2 of 3 at MTSU this weekend.
Indiana(1-2) now has a 21RPI while MTSU(3-1),who beat lipscomb last night, has an rpi of 97.

How on earth is that possible?

No formula on earth should benefit the road team that much.


Tenn rpi is 197 after winning 2/3 at a neutral site



Seeing this shows me how so many northern teams are getting bids in the NCAA tourney that never used to do so
 
#2
#2
BruinVol said:
Obviously it too early to look at RPIs but I do think looking at the rankings after one weekend show a huge biased slant toward the northern teams.

From what little I know about the formula I know road wins count almost the same as 2 home wins and with the northern teams playing many more games on the road they will get a huge bump.

Looking at warrennolan website I found this extremely eye opening.


Indiana a team picked by some to go back to Omaha lost 2 of 3 at MTSU this weekend.
Indiana(1-2) now has a 21RPI while MTSU(3-1),who beat lipscomb last night, has an rpi of 97.

How on earth is that possible?

No formula on earth should benefit the road team that much.


Tenn rpi is 197 after winning 2/3 at a neutral site



Seeing this shows me how so many northern teams are getting bids in the NCAA tourney that never used to do so
Click to expand...

Don't think there is enough data for the algorithms to work correctly.
 
#3
#3
Sandvol said:
Don't think there is enough data for the algorithms to work correctly.
Click to expand...

Oh I agree for sure but it does emphasize how much importance is put on roads wins.

Teams that play more road games obviously benefit greatly from the formula
 
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#4
#4
Which RPI did you use? I'm thinking Warren Nolan... has us at 197. They listed our wins as "home" instead of "neutral". I don't know how much a correction there would help.

Also have to look at where the teams were "ranked"...Indiana has a 1-2 record after a series with a top 51-100 team where we have a 2-1 record versus a team that is considered 200+.

It's too early for any of the rankings to have much meaning.

Sandvol is correct I believe.

I sent them an e-mail to their "corrections" portal.
 
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#5
#5
Y'all discussing Tennessee Baseball's RPI reminds me of the conversation between Clark Griswold and cousin Eddie. "Do you think it really matters, Eddie?"
 
#6
#6
Backwards K said:
Y'all discussing Tennessee Baseball's RPI reminds me of the conversation between Clark Griswold and cousin Eddie. "Do you think it really matters, Eddie?"
Click to expand...

Lol

Why I brought it up was This shows me why so many northern teams are having high RPIs now and IMO this formula is giving to much credit to road wins.

Will be interested to follow throughout the year
 
#7
#7
BruinVol said:
Oh I agree for sure but it does emphasize how much importance is put on roads wins.

Teams that play more road games obviously benefit greatly from the formula
Click to expand...

Yeah, if like basketball road win is weighted 1.4 whereas home win is only weighted 0.6.
 
#8
#8
Sandvol said:
Yeah, if like basketball road win is weighted 1.4 whereas home win is only weighted 0.6.
Click to expand...

Thanks for providing those numbers. I couldn't Remember what they are

So in terms of baseball where 3 game series are the normal

A home team winning 2/3 gets 1.2

Where the visiting team winning only 1 gets 1.4


Seems completely ignorant to me.

Should just play all games on the road if that's the case
 
#9
#9
There's a Big10, Northern Big12 team or Notre Dame every season that is picked as the darling of the baseball world.

I think the NCAA and the media will do everything they can to push that one team as far as they can- including hosting a region even if their crappy stadiums and poor fan support does not justify such.

Even with Todd Raleigh, Tennessee would have contended for the Big10 title every season. IN the SEC, ACC or even BigSouth, we'd just be middle of the pack.
 
#10
#10
I'm often befuddled, how last years RPI ranking of Dallas Baptist was so high (which had me befuddled), could be explained by the road win weight, 1.4 or whatever it may be for baseball, as they had 21 road victories last year and only 6 losses at home........

Note to schedule maker: play weekday games away.
 
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#11
#11
OldTimer said:
I'm often befuddled however last years RPI ranking Dallas Baptist so high (which had me befuddled) could be explained by the road win weight, 1.4 or whatever it may be for baseball, as they had 21 road victories last year and only 6 losses at home........

Note to schedule maker: play weekday games away.
Click to expand...

In all seriousness playing at memphis would have been better for our rpi

Play road games if rpi is going to be a factor but in reality sec teams usually don't have to worry about rpi. They usually are high enough because their 15 road games are big rpi builders
 
#12
#12
I looked it up, and baseball is a bit different than basketball. Baseball is 1.3 for a road win, and 0.7 for a home win.

The RPI is flawed. I understand it's an index, so you have to compare teams to use it correctly. However, it doesn't consider who you beat. In basketball, you can play a tough schedule, not beat any of your toughest teams, and still have a high RPI. The RPI considers your winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and opponents' opponents' winning percentage with the adjustments for the home/road win. Apparently, baseball used to award bonus points and penalties based on where the opponent ranked but that was replaced by the home/road adjustment. In baseball, I am guessing SEC teams don't have to schedule many tough OOC games because of the difficulty of the league.
 
#13
#13
I would like to see them add additional weight to road games played out-of-state or perhaps more than 3-4 hrs away from campus.

South Carolina NEVER leaves the state until SEC play.
With Florida- who does same, that npot a big deal as there are far more high-level teams in Florida.
 
#14
#14
fryeguy93 said:
I would like to see them add additional weight to road games played out-of-state or perhaps more than 3-4 hrs away from campus.

South Carolina NEVER leaves the state until SEC play.
With Florida- who does same, that npot a big deal as there are far more high-level teams in Florida.
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That would favor the northern teams even more so.

Can't go for that
 
#19
#19
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#20
#20
OldTimer said:
Not that it really matters this early in the season however for bragging right purposes here it is:

Tennessee is now 4th and Vanderbilt is 7th. Enjoy it while it lasts.........

2016 Men's College Baseball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live - WarrenNolan.com

SOS we are 3rd, so congrats to the Vols for playing very well early in the season against decent opponents...

2016 Men's College Baseball Strength of Schedule (SOS) - WarrenNolan.com
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Impressive. Love it OLdTimer, thanks. With this program, I'll take any positives I can get.
 
#21
#21
Not kidding...got an e- mail from Warren Nolan today thanking me for the correction on the Memphis series being neutral site. I was not expecting a reply but it's nice to know he values his site visitors enough to send a reply.

Wife wants her phone back, later ya'll.

GBO!!!
 
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#22
#22
OldTimer said:
Not that it really matters this early in the season however for bragging right purposes here it is:

Tennessee is now 4th and Vanderbilt is 7th. Enjoy it while it lasts.........

2016 Men's College Baseball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live - WarrenNolan.com

SOS we are 3rd, so congrats to the Vols for playing very well early in the season against decent opponents...

2016 Men's College Baseball Strength of Schedule (SOS) - WarrenNolan.com
Click to expand...

I click on the link now and says we are number 1 in RPI and number 2 in SOS. Who would've thunk it, the baseball team is going to be the best sports program of the year. Glad to see them having early success and hope they can keep it up. I've been rooting for Serrano ever since he got here.
 
#23
#23
VolPack22 said:
I click on the link now and says we are number 1 in RPI and number 2 in SOS. Who would've thunk it, the baseball team is going to be the best sports program of the year. Glad to see them having early success and hope they can keep it up. I've been rooting for Serrano ever since he got here.
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Warren Nolan polls are up to the minute, so depending on who just won or lost its always changing.....
 
#24
#24
vol66 said:
Not kidding...got an e- mail from Warren Nolan today thanking me for the correction on the Memphis series being neutral site. I was not expecting a reply but it's nice to know he values his site visitors enough to send a reply.

Wife wants her phone back, later ya'll.

GBO!!!
Click to expand...

Enjoy the day off, I may be around but not sure. Pretty nice of Warren Nolan to respond, can you ask him for his algorithm? Would be neat to see the math behind it, even though I'm a little skeptical of polls of this nature...
 
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