SEC East Race (11/3)

#1
TrueOrange

TrueOrange

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#1
Realistically, there are three teams still alive in the SEC race:

Missouri (8-1, 4-1 SEC, 4-1 SEC East)
USCe (7-2. 5-2 SEC, 3-2 SEC East)
Georgia (5-3. 4-2 SEC, 3-2 SEC East)

The following teams have tiebreakers over other teams:

Missouri has a tiebreaker over Georgia.
South Carolina has a tiebreaker over Missouri.
Georgia has a tiebreaker over South Carolina.


Here's each team's remaining SEC schedule:

Missouri: at Kentucky, @ Mississippi (after bye), vs #12 Texas A&M
South Carolina: vs Florida (after bye)
Georgia: @ #11 Auburn (after FCS game), vs Kentucky.


Here are the scenarios under which each can win the East:

Missouri:

They are currently in the driver's seat. They win the division if:

1)They win out their last 3 SEC games.

2)They win out their one remaining SEC East game (UK), lose one game out of Ole Miss and A&M, and UGA wins out (beats Auburn and UK)

3) They win 2 of their 3 SEC games and USCe loses to UF.

4) They lose their last SEC East game (UK) AND win their final 2 SEC games, USCe wins its final SEC game, UGA wins its last 2 SEC games, and Missouri is the highest ranked in the BCS standings


South Carolina:

They win the division if:

1) They beat UF, UGA loses one of its next 2 SEC games, and Missouri loses one of its next 3 SEC games.

2) They lose to UF, UGA loses its final 2 SEC games, and Missouri loses two of its last three SEC games.

3) They beat UF, Missouri loses to UK AND beats A&M AND Ole Miss, UGA wins its final 2 SEC games, AND USCe is highest in the BCS rankings.

Georgia:

They win the division if:

1) They win their two final SEC games (AUB, UK), AND Missouri loses 2 out of its 3 final SEC games.

2) They win one of their final SEC games, USCe loses to UF, and Missouri loses 2 out of its 3 final SEC games.

3) UGA wins its last 2 SEC games, Missouri loses to UK AND wins its last 2 SEC games, USCe wins against UF, AND UGA is the highest in the BCS rankings.



Technically, UF is still alive, but it would take more of a mess than I would like to calculate at the moment...simply put a whole lot would have to happen.
 
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#2
#2
I'll go with SC winning the division. Mizzou loses to Ole Miss or A&M. Maybe both.

Georgia loses to Auburn. SC wins out.
 
#3
#3
TrueOrange said:
Realistically, there are three teams still alive in the SEC race:

Missouri (8-1, 4-1 SEC, 4-1 SEC East)
USCe (7-2. 5-2 SEC, 3-2 SEC East)
Georgia (5-3. 4-2 SEC, 3-2 SEC East)

Georgia:

They win the division if:

2) They win one of their final SEC games, USCe loses to UF, and Missouri loses 2 out of its 3 final SEC games.
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Very informative post, but I think this one's not correct.
All three teams would be 5-3, as would Florida. Missouri and Georgia would be 2-1 against the other tied teams, while South Carolina and Florida would be 1-2, so Missouri would win the East because of their win over Georgia.

If Florida loses to Vandy, it's a three-way tie under that scenario with the head-to-head among Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina having been split. Missouri then wins based on their division record. If your scenario is reached in the most likely manner, they'd only have one loss in the East (losses to SCar, Miss, TAMU). If Missouri loses to Kentucky but splits their games with Ole Miss and TAMU, that would get Missouri to 5-3 with two East losses, but SCar would have three East losses (UGA, UT, UF), and UGA already has two East losses (MO, VU). So, Missouri would still win because of their win over Georgia.
 
#4
#4
I think the only way for Florida to win the East is to win out to finish 5-3 and have UGA and Missouri both lose out to finish 4-4.
They'd lose a three-way tie with UGA and SCar to UGA because of head-to-head.
They'd lose a three-way tie with Missouri and SCar to Missouri because of division record. UF would have two East losses, SCar would have three East losses, and Missouri can finish with two East losses at the most, and Missouri beat UF.
And, as discussed in my previous post, Missouri wins if everyone finishes 5-3.
 
#5
#5
Whoever wins the East gets to go get curb-stomped by the gumps. Here's hoping UGA wins out.
 
#7
#7
DarthVisor said:
Whoever wins the East gets to go get curb-stomped by the gumps. Here's hoping UGA wins out.
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If Franklin can get back for Mizzou this weekend and they can get through UK, Ole Miss, and TAM, I'll give them a fighting chance against Alabama. Their defense may be good enough to keep them in it and then you never know.
 
#8
#8
MSUDuo said:
If Franklin can get back for Mizzou this weekend and they can get through UK, Ole Miss, and TAM, I'll give them a fighting chance against Alabama. Their defense may be good enough to keep them in it and then you never know.
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Obviously, anything can happen in college football. However, I have a very hard time seeing anyone from the East beating Alabama in a championship situation. I thought UGA could have done it at full strength. However, they have suffered a lot of attrition.
 
#10
#10
I agree; UGA's defense would be a liability.


However, it seemed when they were healthy that their offense was able to keep up more times than not with however many points their defense gave up.

If USCe makes it, they might honestly owe Vanderbilt a fruit basket or something as well. Without that upset, it would pretty much just be a two horse race right now.
 
#11
#11
ukvols said:
Very informative post, but I think this one's not correct.
All three teams would be 5-3, as would Florida. Missouri and Georgia would be 2-1 against the other tied teams, while South Carolina and Florida would be 1-2, so Missouri would win the East because of their win over Georgia.

If Florida loses to Vandy, it's a three-way tie under that scenario with the head-to-head among Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina having been split. Missouri then wins based on their division record. If your scenario is reached in the most likely manner, they'd only have one loss in the East (losses to SCar, Miss, TAMU). If Missouri loses to Kentucky but splits their games with Ole Miss and TAMU, that would get Missouri to 5-3 with two East losses, but SCar would have three East losses (UGA, UT, UF), and UGA already has two East losses (MO, VU). So, Missouri would still win because of their win over Georgia.
Click to expand...

My bad. I was in a hurry putting that one in. I had just realized that I hadn't addressed that outcome of games and was trying to hurry it in before posting. Didn't consider where that would leave UF in such a case.
 
#12
#12
TrueOrange said:
I agree; UGA's defense would be a liability.


However, it seemed when they were healthy that their offense was able to keep up more times than not with however many points their defense gave up.

If USCe makes it, they might honestly owe Vanderbilt a fruit basket or something as well. Without that upset, it would pretty much just be a two horse race right now.
Click to expand...

I don't want to go to Atlanta. Alabama would run roughshod over our patchwork defense. Amari Cooper would have 300 yards receiving before halftime.
 
#13
#13
DarthVisor said:
I don't want to go to Atlanta. Alabama would run roughshod over our patchwork defense. Amari Cooper would have 300 yards receiving before halftime.
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Getting killed is no fun, but you'd be foolish to pass up a shot at Atlanta if your team can make it. Even though you'd probably loose to Alabama, it would be your first time ever getting that far in the SEC, and it would have significant effects as far as recruiting going forward.

Who knows, depending on how things go by the end of the season, both in the SEC and elsewhere, even with a loss you might earn a trip to a BCS Bowl, probably the Sugar Bowl.
 
#14
#14
VolBuck86 said:
Getting killed is no fun, but you'd be foolish to pass up a shot at Atlanta if your team can make it. Even though you'd probably loose to Alabama, it would be your first time ever getting that far in the SEC, and it would have significant effects as far as recruiting going forward.

Who knows, depending on how things go by the end of the season, both in the SEC and elsewhere, even with a loss you might earn a trip to a BCS Bowl, probably the Sugar Bowl.
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A 2 loss team isn't going to get a BCS berth after their third loss in the SEC Championship.
 
#15
#15
VolBuck86 said:
Getting killed is no fun, but you'd be foolish to pass up a shot at Atlanta if your team can make it. Even though you'd probably loose to Alabama, it would be your first time ever getting that far in the SEC, and it would have significant effects as far as recruiting going forward.

Who knows, depending on how things go by the end of the season, both in the SEC and elsewhere, even with a loss you might earn a trip to a BCS Bowl, probably the Sugar Bowl.
Click to expand...

The Gamecocks were in Atlanta in 2010.
 
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