Senate One Year from Now

#1
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sjt18

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#1
What is your best guess for for the party make up of the Senate one year from now?

Real Clear Politics has the GOP plus 6 right now. However they aren't counting MO where Rasmussen has had Blunt ahead for months.

The more Crist becomes the de facto Dem candidate in FL the more likely it is Rubio wins... and I think Crist's only shot at winning is taking votes from the Dem.

Toomey has opened up a lead in PA.

Angle in spite of a vigorous effort by the MSM is leading Reid.

The reason these races are likely to tilt GOP is money. Due to the under reported unpopularity of liberal policies, the Dems are having to spend money to try to keep seats in even dark blue states like WA and CA.

That unpopularity is also doing something else that Dems and even Reps don't want to admit... It is getting some previously inactive conservatives interested/concerned about politics. You hardly hear a report from a Tea Party rally without one of the interviewees saying they'd never been involved before but could no longer close their eyes.

The GOP isn't necessarily winning them over because they do not act on what they say they believe... and that makes the Tea Party scary to Rep elites. However, the Dems are definitely on the wrong side of the TP.

Of course it terrifies both the Dems and the Lindsay Graham type of Reps that the Tea Party may seat Paul, Rubio, and Angle. Any GOP candidate this year that doesn't at least tip their hat to the TP will lose.
 
#2
#2
given the GOP's seemingly supernatural ability to screw things up, I doubt they'll gain a majority in the Senate.

I do think that Harry Reid will be retired by Sharron Angle, Rubio will win in FL and Toomey will win in PA.
 
#3
#3
Those three plus Blunt give the GOP 50. Strange as it may seem... CA, WA, IL, and CO are all winnable. OH is still a real possibility and especially if the GOP can pull some funds out of places like Ark to close the deal.

They do fine with electioneering... their screw ups occur mostly after they get elected.
 
#4
#4
A more interesting thought is what difference will it really make in the grand scheme of things? Republicans are just Democrats who want to take you to dinner first.
 
#6
#6
IPorange said:
A more interesting thought is what difference will it really make in the grand scheme of things? Republicans are just Democrats who want to take you to dinner first.
Click to expand...

I've never seen a republican bow to a foreign head of state.
 
#7
#7
I personally would like to see the GOP win in November, repeal some of the socialist crap that's been shoved down our throats and then in 2 years it going to 50/50 and being deadlocked.

Question, why does the government continually have to pass laws? I bet you break numerous laws everyday without even knowing it.
 
#8
#8
MG1968 said:
I've never seen a republican bow to a foreign head of state.
Click to expand...

bush_bow_Pope.jpg

Bush%20Bowed%20Too.jpg


NixonbowstoMao.JPG


2009-11-17-Obamabow1.jpg


bow.jpg
 
#10
#10
IPorange said:
A more interesting thought is what difference will it really make in the grand scheme of things? Republicans are just Democrats who want to take you to dinner first.
Click to expand...

It could. Rossi, Rubio, Paul, and Angle represent a different kind of politician... maybe even a return to statesmanship. These 4 plus others in the redder states will be accountable to the Tea Party base... and those folks will be paying attention.

There's a few conservatives with backbone in the Senate. Coburn and Sessions both seem have a little Phil Gramm in them.

The others will go along for purely political reasons.
 
#12
#12
sjt18 said:
What is your best guess for for the party make up of the Senate one year from now?

Real Clear Politics has the GOP plus 6 right now. However they aren't counting MO where Rasmussen has had Blunt ahead for months.

The more Crist becomes the de facto Dem candidate in FL the more likely it is Rubio wins... and I think Crist's only shot at winning is taking votes from the Dem.

Toomey has opened up a lead in PA.

Angle in spite of a vigorous effort by the MSM is leading Reid.

The reason these races are likely to tilt GOP is money. Due to the under reported unpopularity of liberal policies, the Dems are having to spend money to try to keep seats in even dark blue states like WA and CA.

That unpopularity is also doing something else that Dems and even Reps don't want to admit... It is getting some previously inactive conservatives interested/concerned about politics. You hardly hear a report from a Tea Party rally without one of the interviewees saying they'd never been involved before but could no longer close their eyes.

The GOP isn't necessarily winning them over because they do not act on what they say they believe... and that makes the Tea Party scary to Rep elites. However, the Dems are definitely on the wrong side of the TP.

Of course it terrifies both the Dems and the Lindsay Graham type of Reps that the Tea Party may seat Paul, Rubio, and Angle. Any GOP candidate this year that doesn't at least tip their hat to the TP will lose.
Click to expand...

I would guess 6-8.

And I think the Rs win the House.
 
#13
#13
The R's have a good shot at winning the house but the Senate I'm not so sure on and it's because the Senate's Republicans are the worst offenders when it comes to being "Democrat Lites," and I think people are weary of them. I think they will gain and make it 50/50, but I don't see them taking a clear majority.

The problem is will they actually fight to cut spending (the most important thing to do now) or will they just do stuff to publicly oppose everything Obama does. I know the two go hand in hand in a lot of ways, but they need to stay on message. Don't try to throw bogus charges or chase after every Red Herring and investigate everything under the sun to try to score political points. Get this ship righted first and foremost and let "Compassionate Conservatism" die in the fire it needs to die in and quit trying to pander to the traditionally blue votes.
 
#14
#14
If the Rs can ever take the Senate back it will be 2012, there are 22 dems and only 10 Rs up for re election.
 
#15
#15
I can think of one R that I hope doesn't go back in that one, but I hope to have him eliminated in the primary by a better candidate.
 
#17
#17
Well I'm thinking of the one running in my state that I can actually have a hand in eliminating :)
 
#20
#20
MG1968 said:
no popcorn needed, I said that I'd never seen a republican bow to a foreign leader. IP is right, they're all douchebags.
Click to expand...

I agree with you that unless the other leader is bowing as well, it shouldn't happen.
 
#21
#21
Sharron Angle has destroyed her own campaign. You know the Tea Party just hates that a solid shot at taking down Reid was a complete and utter waste.
 
#22
#22
I think the GOP has a great chance to retake the House. I also think the GOP has a decent chance of getting up to 7 of the 9 Tennessee seats.

As for the Senate, I don't the the GOP taking control, but I think a 5-7 seat pick-up is very likely.
 
#23
#23
I see a high risk of 50-50 split in the Senate. Everyone's favorite foot-in-mouth candidate will finally be pulled out behind the curtain and even more damage to Obama's image will take place. Well this is as long as the usual suspects of Maine don't vote D.

Right now on paper the GOP doesn't quite have enough to take back the House. The odds are actually not in their favor with the seats in play and the candidates they have running. Doesn't mean it cannot happen though. It will just take some more major failures and missteps to push those 'outside shots' to 'tossup'.

The D strategy is to keep their mouths shut and lay low. The urge from the base is keep fighting and some in Congress still are pushing for the fight. But the top wants to just ride out with a chance to keep Congress but barely. Problem will be the whole CA and AZ cases and potentially other issues to set off the Tea Party and social conservatives. It's all dependent on turnout. Right now AZ and CA will help add energy to the Right's base. Not much is helping the Left's base to a point to stop the swing.
 
#24
#24
The wild card is TP members who were previously uninvolved politically. How many are there... and how many friends will they bring to the polls?

I think the GOP has a very good shot at the House. They can get enough Senate seats to force moderation through a filibuster threat.

If the economy continues to do poorly as most predict, states like CA, WA, and other blues states could be even more in play than now.

IIRC, the GOP never held the kind of lead on the generic ballot in 94 that they now have. Eight pts is huge considering that Dem voters tend to be very concentrated (70-90%) when they have the majority whereas most "red" districts breakdown about 60/40.
 
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