Signs of Improvement

[vol66]

I've spent some time over the last two weeks pondering the question that gets posed at times here in the baseball forum, "After three years of the Serrano Era, are we really any better?"

I think for those that follow the team regularly, the easy answer is yes. But for many folks who just see the results or the record or the fact that we didn't make a regional, the answer may not be as clear cut.

I've put together a few things, if I posted it all in one post few would take the time to digest it all, so I figured I'd do a little at time, hopefully it will spark some discussion as we head to the off season, summer ball, recruiting etc...These are the pitchers that pitched in the given season and may not reflect every pitcher that was on the roster.

*Andrew Lee did not pitch his freshman year due to injury.

The Rebuild

Everyone knows the importance of pitching in this league, you really need 4 solid starters, at least 3 with some reliable relief and a great closer.

The first set of stats/chart shows the pitchers CDS inherited from Raleigh, which of those (IN RED) made it to year 1 of CDS, which carried over to year two, who was new(IN BLACK), etc...

Pretty telling huh?

When CDS goes into his second season, he carries only four pitchers with experience into the season. It certainly looks like a total rebuild and to be fair, it looks like we missed on some guys in terms of recruiting.

Whether one looks at the ERA or the fact that we lose only Williams and Saberhagen in the coming season...the pitching is in the best shape it has been in in sometime.

Look at the improvement overall with the individual pitchers the last two years for other positive signs...Imagine if KS improves to the same degree as Andy Cox for instance.

Obviously, we need to shore up what we have and bring in a couple of others, but we've moved from the bottom of the SEC to solidly the middle of the SEC in terms of pitching, and the pieces are there to take the next step IMO.

EDIT: I just caught that I had Peterson in red, he shouldn't be, he's a new juco like Lenstrohm...apologies.

 

[Burger]

Good thread and correct. We are bringing in some good pitchers next year. I'm excited! We do talk about Cox a lot, but look at Bettencourt. He's really improved.

 

[vol66]

Good thread and correct. We are bringing in some good pitchers next year. I'm excited! We do talk about Cox a lot, but look at Bettencourt. He's really improved.

True on Bettencourt, but look at Owenby as well, remember that Nick Williams was mostly used in relief and in a closer role up until 2013, as a starter his improvement is dramatic as well.

 

[Burger]

True on Bettencourt, but look at Owenby as well, remember that Nick Williams was mostly used in relief and in a closer role up until 2013, as a starter his improvement is dramatic as well.

Both of those guys shaved two runs off their era. Do you know how to run linear regression?

 

[Rose4ut]

Just seeking a little clarification, what justifies our pitching as "solidly in the middle of the SEC?" Would that not have resulted in a 5th through 8th place league finish, albeit with about a 16-14 or 15-15 league mark? Not a 12-18 mark good enough for 11th overall.

I do not disagree that this team, from a pure "eyeball test" perspective, is improving slightly and steadily. It is a painful process, however, and I truly thought Dave Serrano would have had us further along in year 3 of his tenure.

I do not subscribe to the "we are so young" mantra. Those that lean in to that as an affirmation of some of our inexplicable losses need to do their own roster research of the other 13 schools in our conference. My research reflects our roster as the SEC's 9th youngest.

A final thought, and it is merely a stat, nothing more, nothing less. But, has there ever been a more "stat centric" sport than baseball? If you look at the SEC winning percentages of our previous three Vol baseball skippers at this same juncture, a la year 3 in the books, you may be stunned as to who has the lowest winning percentage.

I love UT baseball as much as anyone, more than most. I am hopeful next year is a real "tipping point", in a positive way. Time will tell.

 

[vol66]

Just seeking a little clarification, what justifies our pitching as "solidly in the middle of the SEC?" Would that not have resulted in a 5th through 8th place league finish, albeit with about a 16-14 or 15-15 league mark? Not a 12-18 mark good enough for 11th overall.

I do not disagree that this team, from a pure "eyeball test" perspective, is improving slightly and steadily. It is a painful process, however, and I truly thought Dave Serrano would have had us further along in year 3 of his tenure.

I do not subscribe to the "we are so young" mantra. Those that lean in to that as an affirmation of some of our inexplicable losses need to do their own roster research of the other 13 schools in our conference. My research reflects our roster as the SEC's 9th youngest.

A final thought, and it is merely a stat, nothing more, nothing less. But, has there ever been a more "stat centric" sport than baseball? If you look at the SEC winning percentages of our previous three Vol baseball skippers at this same juncture, a la year 3 in the books, you may be stunned as to who has the lowest winning percentage.

I love UT baseball as much as anyone, more than most. I am hopeful next year is a real "tipping point", in a positive way. Time will tell.

I was referring to pitching statistics. If you were to go back and look at last years SEC pitching stats, you'd find that we were in the bottom of the league in pitching in just about every category, and I mean dead last for the most part.

I just went back to look at this years stats and while we still give up too many walks, HBP's and doubles...

We are 10th in ERA, 7th in OBA, 6th in sac bunts allowed,
8th in sac flies allowed, hits allowed 6th, runs allowed 11th, ER allowed 9th...etc...

Maybe "solidly" was over reaching a bit on my part, but literally in every category last year, we were at the bottom...Of course, all you have to do is look at what we had to work with.

We are NOT a young team overall, I agree and I don't like that argument. Hunter Martin is a freshman, Kyle Serrano is a freshman, Andrew Lee didn't pitch last year as a freshman...so you are talking about Williams, Bettencourt, Owenby, Cox and Eric Martin who was hurt as well as Charpie, neither of them pitched much at all...so four guys that pitched in SEC games last year and some new guys...very inexperienced pitching staff compared to most of the teams we play. That's not to discount that other teams started freshman too, they did.

UK and TAMU both had a worse ERA than ours yet they are still playing. Pitching is a big part, sure ,but hitting and fielding plays a part...in fact while people still complain much about the pitching, the progress made there far exceeds our hitting.

 

[31VFL]

I will be really concerned if we don't make that big jump next year, however I think we do. We really don't lose anyone besides Williams, Smart, and Price. I appreciate what others have done, but they are not huge losses. With Lane Thomas and Brodie Leftridge coming, the outfield should be loaded. Stewart, Leftridge, Thomas, Jackson, and Lance. If you haven't heard of Thomas and Leftridge I really think you will be excited.

In the infield, Simcox hopefully improves, Maddux needs to stay, Senzel was awesome as a freshmen. I've heard Rodgers looked good at 3rd, but it would be tough to beat Smart. I think Maggio will continue to grow into a player as well. Behind the plate is really exciting. Between Benito Santiago and Dominick Cammarata, the future is bright. That's assuming neither go pro.

Serrano has added several lefty arms in the class as well. I am excited about RHP Westphal, who at his last PG event sat 90-93 with his fastball. I think barring something surprising, next year we should be in the tourney and not on the bubble. There is a lot of talent coming in to add to what we have.

 

[vol66]

I will be really concerned if we don't make that big jump next year, however I think we do. We really don't lose anyone besides Williams, Smart, and Price. I appreciate what others have done, but they are not huge losses. With Lane Thomas and Brodie Leftridge coming, the outfield should be loaded. Stewart, Leftridge, Thomas, Jackson, and Lance. If you haven't heard of Thomas and Leftridge I really think you will be excited.

In the infield, Simcox hopefully improves, Maddux needs to stay, Senzel was awesome as a freshmen. I've heard Rodgers looked good at 3rd, but it would be tough to beat Smart. I think Maggio will continue to grow into a player as well. Behind the plate is really exciting. Between Benito Santiago and Dominick Cammarata, the future is bright. That's assuming neither go pro.

Serrano has added several lefty arms in the class as well. I am excited about RHP Westphal, who at his last PG event sat 90-93 with his fastball. I think barring something surprising, next year we should be in the tourney and not on the bubble. There is a lot of talent coming in to add to what we have.

You'll be able to track a couple of these guys this summer as well...Leftridge will be with the Silver Spring TacomaT-Bolts, for instance.

 

[orangeluvr]

The team era is certainly better,this team is very young and will be better next season.

 

[vol66]

Maybe a little further explanation on the original post, in terms of what I was trying to show might be in order.

1.) CDS wasn't hired until mid June. Part of it was the Hamilton/Cronan transition and then it was waiting for an appropriate time to talk to Holbrook.

2.) That put us behind on the recruiting trail and assessing the roster. Of that class of pitchers, only Eric Martin would stick.

3.) In addition, the "roster dump" doesn't happen until year 2 and it yields a slightly better pitching haul, but there is no question in years 1 and 2, there were some misses. I believe that is one reason Coach Mo moved on.

4.) This is opinion...I believe CDS possibly underestimated the kinds of arms he might need to compete in the SEC, or maybe he overestimated his system and his abilities to take less than above average stuff and turn it into SEC caliber pitching. Either way, and of course it's just my opinion, that seems to have been addressed in terms of pitching.

 

[ShowmeVols]

True on Bettencourt, but look at Owenby as well, remember that Nick Williams was mostly used in relief and in a closer role up until 2013, as a starter his improvement is dramatic as well.

Nick Williams led the team in starts and innings pitched in 2012.

When I look at signs of improvement in a pitching staff, I look at how many quality innings we have to replace, how many low-quality innings we need to upgrade, who is already here to help, and who is coming in to help.

After 2012, we had to replace about 90 innings of Steck and TJ Thornton plus Blount's saves. All were big guys who threw hard. They were mostly replaced in 2013 with young, small righties who threw in the mid to upper 80's, and that didn't work out very well.

After 2013, we had to replace Godley's 108 innings of pitching like a man and upgrade the innings pitched by new guys who were in over their head.

This year, we had more quality arms to do the work, fewer guys forced into handle multiple roles, and fewer guys forced to fill roles for which they weren't optimal.

Looking ahead to next year, we have to replace Nick Williams, and we have fewer bad innings to upgrade.

Looking at the guys already here and the guys coming in, it's reasonable to think pitching will continue its progress next year.

 

[ShowmeVols]

Good thread and correct. We are bringing in some good pitchers next year. I'm excited! We do talk about Cox a lot, but look at Bettencourt. He's really improved.

Bettencourt did improve (ERA and BAA are much better, BB/9 somewhat better), but part of the improvement is the result of him not being asked to try every role from starter to closer as happened his freshman year. It looks like the coach has assigned him to a more defined and smaller role (fewer innings this year), and part of his improvement could be due to being used more suitably.

 

[vol66]

2005 was the last time UT went to the CWS. That team played 67 games and had the likes of Julio Borbon and J.P. Arencibia...

The bat change occurs in 2011, something to keep in mind as well...

10 Years of UT Pitching (min. 20 IP)

That 3.61 ERA in 2005 was good for 3rd best in the conference and in the top 23 in the nation...3.41 is 10th this year in the SEC and 66th in the NCAA...That's how much the game has changed.

 

[vol66]

Nick Williams led the team in starts and innings pitched in 2012.

Oops...I confused the two Nick's, my bad...

 

[Rose4ut]

Great stuff, Vol66. I respect your passion, knowledge and enthusiasm for UT baseball.

 

[vol66]

Great stuff, Vol66. I respect your passion, knowledge and enthusiasm for UT baseball.

Appreciate it Rose! I think the second chart really addresses your question a bit better and I think the most mind blowing stat is the 2011 BAA of .296, that's Raleigh's last year and the new bats didn't help his pitching at all. You aren't going to win many games when teams bat nearly .300 against you and that's the mess Serrano inherited.

The other stat that is telling to me is the pitchers below a 4.00 ERA over the course of the 10 years.

Now 3.41 is no going to cut it (unless we're going to start manufacturing runs UK style), it needs to get down to 2.70 at the least to be in the top of the league...but given the fact that we will be retaining the bulk of the pitching staff for the first time in 3 years, at least we seem to be headed in the right direction.

Appreciate your questions, post more often.

 

[sport3500]

Pitching and solid defense win ball games while offense puts butts in the seats......

That being said, if we can land a few guys with gap power, the offense should be better next season.

 

[vol66]

Final stat/ table of the night...Most of the stats were collected from UT sports and checked against the SEC stats...for some reason Ground into Double Play (GDP) is 29 at SEC stats and 31 at UT Sports, either way, it's a positive compared to the rest of the SEC.

There have been improvements, but admittedly, it's a little harder to see. We also had a bit of sophomore slump-"itis" with a couple guys, AJ, VJax...

 

[Backwards K]

Just to show how far Todd Raleigh/Mike Hamilton sunk the baseball program:

The 2007 team finished the season 34-25, 13-15 in SEC play which was good for 4th in the SEC East. The Vols entered the SEC Tournament as the 8th seed (8 of 12 teams went to tourney) and defeated Vanderbilt who was not only the #1 seed in the tournament but in the nation. Vols then lost their next two games and did not get into the NCAA. Hamilton fired the entire coaching staff for this effort.

Serrano will get this program back to Omaha and they will be a consistent contender for years to come. But, once the program is back to prominence, don't be so quick to scream for a coach's ouster if he doesn't live up to the high expectations that he sets. UT fans have seen what happens when you fire coaches like Delmonico and Fulmer because they aren't winning a championship every 3 years!

 

[fryeguy93]

Just to show how far Todd Raleigh/Mike Hamilton sunk the baseball program:

The 2007 team finished the season 34-25, 13-15 in SEC play which was good for 4th in the SEC East. The Vols entered the SEC Tournament as the 8th seed (8 of 12 teams went to tourney) and defeated Vanderbilt who was not only the #1 seed in the tournament but in the nation. Vols then lost their next two games and did not get into the NCAA. Hamilton fired the entire coaching staff for this effort.

Serrano will get this program back to Omaha and they will be a consistent contender for years to come. But, once the program is back to prominence, don't be so quick to scream for a coach's ouster if he doesn't live up to the high expectations that he sets. UT fans have seen what happens when you fire coaches like Delmonico and Fulmer because they aren't winning a championship every 3 years!

Not to stand up for Hamilton, but a vocal number of fans were demanding the firing and he was prone to listening to fans rather than being logical about siutations. He had to discharge Fulmer because attendance and $$$ was at stake but should have dug his heels in on baseball.

He made the decision even worse by passing on Serranno who wanted the job then and going with the obvious trainwreck with Raleigh.

Delmonico after 2005 had some odd seasons. I think he was buildings a more consistent program (especially with the dead bats on horizon) but had some dreadful luck (injuries) in 2006 (Hochevar went to Ind. league rather than come back to UT) and underperforming by big stars in 2007.

That 2007 teams should have competed for SEC title but I think some guys were more worried about pro careers than their college careers.

Add into that, Delmonico trusted his guys to do the right thing and actually go to class and every season he would lose one or two guys to academics (remember the guys that became eligible the last weekend of season) or would have to take a low draft pick as they had not gone to class. (eg Jeffery Terrell)

However, those relatively minor problems could have been more easily corrected without throwing out the baby with the bathwater. So Raleigh comes in and fixes the minor class/APR problem and kills the talent within and wanting to come to the program. He fires uber-qualified assistant coaches for Yes Men and tries to win with talent he would not even recruit to Western Carolina. He runs off great players like Yan Gomes and Andy Simunic and replaces them with Div. 2 talent.

He was terrible with the community and long time fans; he burned bridges with high school and other coaches; he couldn't string together coherent sentences in interviews and news conferences. AND WAS OBVIOUSLY OVER HIS HEAD WHEN HE ACCEPTED THE JOB!

There were assistants on Raleigh's staff that were more qualified to be head coach. There were area high school coaches more qualified to be head coach. There was a coach fresh off taking a team -whose mascot was a damn aardvark, to world series who actively campaigned for job.

Can you imagine Serrano coming to Knoxville with the talent coming back after 2007. It was not a huge number but sure as hell was better than it was in 2012- especially in the field.

 

[Backwards K]

fryeguy, in other words, a typical Hamilton hiring. I have heard a lot of how the Raleigh hiring occurred and it's comical.

 

[firestorm]

Just to show how far Todd Raleigh/Mike Hamilton sunk the baseball program:

The 2007 team finished the season 34-25, 13-15 in SEC play which was good for 4th in the SEC East. The Vols entered the SEC Tournament as the 8th seed (8 of 12 teams went to tourney) and defeated Vanderbilt who was not only the #1 seed in the tournament but in the nation. Vols then lost their next two games and did not get into the NCAA. Hamilton fired the entire coaching staff for this effort.

Serrano will get this program back to Omaha and they will be a consistent contender for years to come. But, once the program is back to prominence, don't be so quick to scream for a coach's ouster if he doesn't live up to the high expectations that he sets. UT fans have seen what happens when you fire coaches like Delmonico and Fulmer because they aren't winning a championship every 3 years!

Yeah let's avoid the Oakland raiders esque stuff.

Harbaugh for the 49ers is a topnotch coach that brought the 49ers back to greatness but in 3 seasons still not a Super Bowl win. Doesn't mean he never will I don't think he'll be another Andy Reid.
4 years for Carroll to lead the Seahawks to a Super Bowl win.
Phil Jackson as a head coach didn't win a nba championship until his 8th season.
10 seasons for Tony La Russa as cardinals manager to win a World Seroes.
Gamecocks skipper ray tanner 1997 to 2012. No College World Series title until 2010 his 13th season as the gamecocks skipper.

It's obvious what the message is with all these examples.

Wanting microwave results has become very common, and patience is something lost.
Doesn't mean you don't have fans that don't overreact, and have patience.
I'm optimistic the baseball vols will finally win a baseball title with the topnotch Serrano. Also return to the College World Series in the next two to three seasons.

 

[vol66]

Not to stand up for Hamilton, but a vocal number of fans were demanding the firing and he was prone to listening to fans rather than being logical about siutations. He had to discharge Fulmer because attendance and $$$ was at stake but should have dug his heels in on baseball.

He made the decision even worse by passing on Serranno who wanted the job then and going with the obvious trainwreck with Raleigh.

Delmonico after 2005 had some odd seasons. I think he was buildings a more consistent program (especially with the dead bats on horizon) but had some dreadful luck (injuries) in 2006 (Hochevar went to Ind. league rather than come back to UT) and underperforming by big stars in 2007.

That 2007 teams should have competed for SEC title but I think some guys were more worried about pro careers than their college careers.

Add into that, Delmonico trusted his guys to do the right thing and actually go to class and every season he would lose one or two guys to academics (remember the guys that became eligible the last weekend of season) or would have to take a low draft pick as they had not gone to class. (eg Jeffery Terrell)

However, those relatively minor problems could have been more easily corrected without throwing out the baby with the bathwater. So Raleigh comes in and fixes the minor class/APR problem and kills the talent within and wanting to come to the program. He fires uber-qualified assistant coaches for Yes Men and tries to win with talent he would not even recruit to Western Carolina. He runs off great players like Yan Gomes and Andy Simunic and replaces them with Div. 2 talent.

He was terrible with the community and long time fans; he burned bridges with high school and other coaches; he couldn't string together coherent sentences in interviews and news conferences. AND WAS OBVIOUSLY OVER HIS HEAD WHEN HE ACCEPTED THE JOB!

There were assistants on Raleigh's staff that were more qualified to be head coach. There were area high school coaches more qualified to be head coach. There was a coach fresh off taking a team -whose mascot was a damn aardvark, to world series who actively campaigned for job.

Can you imagine Serrano coming to Knoxville with the talent coming back after 2007. It was not a huge number but sure as hell was better than it was in 2012- especially in the field.

Regarding your last sentence...would there have been a better coach to go into the bat transition, or take over the program when pitching was going to become king and maybe bigger...that 4 year period of Raleigh allowed VU and SC to set up shop and cherry pick Tennessee...

So to imagine what CDS arriving in 2007 would have done almost makes me sick.

 

[firestorm]

Regarding your last sentence...would there have been a better coach to go into the bat transition, or take over the program when pitching was going to become king and maybe bigger...that 4 year period of Raleigh allowed VU and SC to set up shop and cherry pick Tennessee...

So to imagine what CDS arriving in 2007 would have done almost makes me sick.

Serrano with Osborn, Frits, hurlber, Duffy, etc.
It would have been damn great.

Also who was that major batter we lost in 2010?
Again damn great it would have been.

 

[BigOrange51]

Serrano with Osborn, Frits, hurlber, Duffy, etc.
It would have been damn great.

Also who was that major batter we lost in 2010?
Again damn great it would have been.

I think he's more talking along the lines of Morgado, Gomes, Lockwood, Hernandez, Crnkovich, Wiltz, Everett, Davis, Simunic, Forsythe, Polk, Liles, Brown, etc. Those are some very good ballplayers right there. Should have been a lot better than we were. I guess it came down to the attempt at a metaphor with all of us "burning our ships" in a trash can. It was probably more accurate metaphor for a dumpster fire, but oh well.

Cody Stubbs is likely who you are thinking of.