Spreads against Florida since 1994 and results

[BanditVol]

1994 + 5 Loss
1995 + 7 Loss
1996 - 3 Loss
1997 +4 Loss
1998 +3 Win
1999 +2 Loss
2000 +3 Loss
2001 + 17 Win
2002 - 5 Loss
2003 + 3 Win
2004 - 3 Win
2005 +6 Loss
2006 +3 Loss
2007 + 7 Loss
2008 + 7 Loss
2009 +30 Loss
2010 +13 Loss
2011 + 9 Loss
2012 - 3 Loss
2013 +16 Loss
2014 -2 Loss
2015 E Loss
2016 -4 Win
2017 + 4 Loss
2018 + 3 Loss
2019 + 14 Loss
2020 + 17 Loss
2021 + 19 Loss
2022 -10 Win
2023 - 5 Loss

Summary:

in 30 years they were favored 21 times us 8, and one Even

We won as a dog 3 times, so 3-19 as the dog

We won as a favorite 3 times, so 3-5 as favorite

They won the tossup so 0-1 when its even

Overall 6-24 (sigh)

Bottom line 6-24 when we were favored 8 times, and even once, is not as one-sided as I would have imagined. The game has typically gone as expected.

Only once in 30 years (2022) have we been a double digit favorite (-10), and we won.

Biggest win as a dog was 2001 (+17!)

This year's -15 (from a few hours ago, may have changed) is the highest in 30 years and likely since we began playing them annually in 1990.

Just FYA...this gives some insight into all the talk about how we should have beaten them more. We should have, but its not as bad as I thought it might have been using spreads as a metric.

 

[VAVol85]

1994 + 5 Loss
1995 + 7 Loss
1996 - 3 Loss
1997 +4 Loss
1998 +3 Win
1999 +2 Loss
2000 +3 Loss
2001 + 17 Win
2002 - 5 Loss
2003 + 3 Win
2004 - 3 Win
2005 +6 Loss
2006 +3 Loss
2007 + 7 Loss
2008 + 7 Loss
2009 +30 Loss
2010 +13 Loss
2011 + 9 Loss
2012 - 3 Loss
2013 +16 Loss
2014 -2 Loss
2015 E Loss
2016 -4 Win
2017 + 4 Loss
2018 + 3 Loss
2019 + 14 Loss
2020 + 17 Loss
2021 + 19 Loss
2022 -10 Win
2023 - 5 Loss

Summary:

in 30 years they were favored 21 times us 8, and one Even

We won as a dog 3 times, so 3-19 as the dog

We won as a favorite 3 times, so 3-5 as favorite

They won the tossup so 0-1 when its even

Overall 6-24 (sigh)

Bottom line 6-24 when we were favored 8 times, and even once, is not as one-sided as I would have imagined. The game has typically gone as expected.

Only once in 30 years (2022) have we been a double digit favorite (-10), and we won.

Biggest win as a dog was 2001 (+17!)

This year's -15 (from a few hours ago, may have changed) is the highest in 30 years and likely since we began playing them annually in 1990.

Just FYA...this gives some insight into all the talk about how we should have beaten them more. We should have, but its not as bad as I thought it might have been using spreads as a metric.

The “Florida curse” would more appropriately be called the Dooley-Jones-Pruitt curse.

 

[BanditVol]

The “Florida curse” would more appropriately be called the Dooley-Jones-Pruitt curse.

Yep! in those years we were 1-2 as a favorite and also lost the year it was Even. Lost twice as a favorite under Fulmer, and once under Heupel

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

The “Florida curse” would more appropriately be called the Dooley-Jones-Pruitt curse.

It's not even a curse for them. The favorite doesn't always win. 6 wins while being favored only 8 times is an expected result. A curse would be if we were favored 21 times in the last 30 years and only won 6 times.

These numbers prove what I've been saying all week. Florida hasnt beaten us repeatedly for the last 30 years because of a curse. Its because they've been the better program more often than not. And the few times we've been better we've beaten them. This year we're way better and thus should win.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

1994 + 5 Loss
1995 + 7 Loss
1996 - 3 Loss
1997 +4 Loss
1998 +3 Win
1999 +2 Loss
2000 +3 Loss
2001 + 17 Win
2002 - 5 Loss
2003 + 3 Win
2004 - 3 Win
2005 +6 Loss
2006 +3 Loss
2007 + 7 Loss
2008 + 7 Loss
2009 +30 Loss
2010 +13 Loss
2011 + 9 Loss
2012 - 3 Loss
2013 +16 Loss
2014 -2 Loss
2015 E Loss
2016 -4 Win
2017 + 4 Loss
2018 + 3 Loss
2019 + 14 Loss
2020 + 17 Loss
2021 + 19 Loss
2022 -10 Win
2023 - 5 Loss

Summary:

in 30 years they were favored 21 times us 8, and one Even

We won as a dog 3 times, so 3-19 as the dog

We won as a favorite 3 times, so 3-5 as favorite

They won the tossup so 0-1 when its even

Overall 6-24 (sigh)

Bottom line 6-24 when we were favored 8 times, and even once, is not as one-sided as I would have imagined. The game has typically gone as expected.

Only once in 30 years (2022) have we been a double digit favorite (-10), and we won.

Biggest win as a dog was 2001 (+17!)

This year's -15 (from a few hours ago, may have changed) is the highest in 30 years and likely since we began playing them annually in 1990.

Just FYA...this gives some insight into all the talk about how we should have beaten them more. We should have, but its not as bad as I thought it might have been using spreads as a metric.

Great post. I think you've conclusively proven this series is not about a curse or Florida having a mental edge. Tennessee has just been the lesser program for most of the last 30 years and the sportsbooks have stated as much. Being only favored in 8 out of 30 matches and winning 6 is an expected result. Not a curse. And not a mental edge.