Starting NFL QBs and Draft Position

[Liper]

The Shuler stuff in the other thread got me to wondering about the correlation between draft status and NFL production. So I went back and looked at the current starting QBs and where they were drafted. The results are interesting.

Note: Undrafted free agents were given a draft round of 12 and overall pick of 300.

The average draft round was 3.42.

The average pick was 79.61.

An interesting dichotmy is that 17 of them are 1st rounders while 10 were post 4th rd.

This tells me that there is a lot more to playing QB than a rifle arm or good feet. Moreover, it says that evaluating college talent and projecting to the NFL is extremely difficult to do.

 

[Lexvol]

About a month ago Colin Cowherd made the same point. In fact he had a contest asking callers to name colleges attended by starting QBs in the NFL. The obscurity of that list was astounding.

 

[therealUT]

When drafting a QB, I would always look for a guy who put up above average numbers at a big conference bottom dweller...

My reason for this is simple:
QBs in talentless offenses, who face very talented competition on a regular basis, are forced to learn how to make the right reads, both prior to the snap and just after the snap. The problem is, most of these guys do not possess the arm strength, yet, to make the throws that are demanded in the NFL. None of them are "quick fixes," and therefore, they are not going to be drafted highly.

 

[GAVol]

About a month ago Colin Cowherd made the same point. In fact he had a contest asking callers to name colleges attended by starting QBs in the NFL. The obscurity of that list was astounding.

That's exactly who I was thinking of when I saw this question. Cowherd makes a convincing argument that no NFL team should ever take a QB in the first round.

 

[Lexvol]

I cannot understand for the life of me why Akili Smith has gotten such a huge pass.

 

[hatvol96]

I cannot understand for the life of me why Akili Smith has gotten such a huge pass.

He went to the Bengals at a time when people assumed all of their draft picks would be failures. Therefore, nobody was surprised when he flamed out.

 

[hatvol96]

About a month ago Colin Cowherd made the same point. In fact he had a contest asking callers to name colleges attended by starting QBs in the NFL. The obscurity of that list was astounding.

Among early round disasters, notice a distinct western flavor.

 

[GVF]

Also interesting, considering all the big programs, is that Marshall appears to be the only school currently pulling a double.

 

[cotton]

Also interesting, considering all the big programs, is that Marshall appears to be the only school currently pulling a double.

Texas (assuming Sims eventually recovers) and Southern Cal will be very, very soon.

Also, I can't open the pdf doc for some reason.

 

[hatvol96]

Texas and Southern Cal will be very, very soon.

No, they won't. It will be a long time before Simms starts another game.

 

[Liper]

Texas and Southern Cal will be very, very soon.

I never would have thought of Simms as an NFL starter. But its amazing what some decent coaching will do in the right sysetm. Granted he's not great, but he's serviceable.

I'll be curious to see how Vince Young looks in the next three years. I'm looking for a major bust out of him.

 

[cotton]

I never would have thought of Simms as an NFL starter. But its amazing what some decent coaching will do in the right sysetm. Granted he's not great, but he's serviceable.

I'll be curious to see how Vince Young looks in the next three years. I'm looking for a major bust out of him.

Hat, you beat out my edit by about 30 seconds on Simms.

As for Young, he will be the starter, even if he is a bust. He is Bud Adams' guy, and he is going to take snaps, regardless of what he does after he takes them. I agree that he is a tremedous gamble, and all-in-all I think the entire Young/Collins/Volek situation has been mismanaged, but I still think you can add him to the "Starters" list in short order.

 

[Lexvol]

He went to the Bengals at a time when people assumed all of their draft picks would be failures. Therefore, nobody was surprised when he flamed out.

I think they made him fly commercial to Cinci, and take a cab from the airport. They wouldn't even send the guy a limo at the time.

 

[therickbol]

The Cleveland Browns are not very good, but I mean they do have a starting QB....they were left off the list.