Stats don't lie

[madtownvol]

First off, I feel really bad for the LVs and the sting that this loss must have. It is a sad note for two excellent seniors to end their careers on. I would have loved to see them play for at least another week.

Mercedes came back for her redshirt senior which she did not have to do. Her commitment to the program needs to be appreciated and admired. When you look at her overall body of work and place on the LV rankings, she qualifies as one of the great LVs even though lacking the trophies.

Nared has been a pleasure to watch over the years. She has had many, many great performances. I look forward to see what she (as well as MR) will do at the next level.


To the stats, here is the glaring one:

The LVs shot5 for 22 from behind the three point arc (an anemic 22.7%)..

When a team goes into a zone, it does not take a coaching genius to figure out how to break it; hit some threes.

The LVs had many wide open looks that went begging.

That poor 22.7% outside shooting was compounded by an equally paltry 33% for 2pt shots. And again, the LVs had a lot of open mid range jumpers and shots at the rim they clanked (and clanked and clanked and clanked).

When they had OSU on the ropes in the first quarter, their 10 point could have easily been double that but they squandered easy opportunities (including missed FTs).

The LVs were not too bad on TOs (8 vs. 13 for OSU) and they out rebounded OSU 39 to 37, though they desperately needed a bigger margin given their abysmal shooting.

Nared, Jackson, and Davis shot a combined 8 for 37 or 21%. In fact, excluding Russell's 10-19 (a really good performance against another quality and slightly bigger post player), the LVs shot 14 for 52 (26%)

Mercedes and Hayes were the only LVs who made any plays with any consistency after the 1st quarter. Green only had 8 minutes but she looked badly over matched and could not provide the boost she did against Liberty (pattern--Green struggles against players who are as big or bigger than her).

The LVs have had losses this season where they just did not show up and others where they played hard but could not hit a basket to save their lives. This game was clearly more a case of the latter. The LV effort was there but the offensive execution killed them. in this game, they needed another player besides MR to generate 15-20 points and they are moving on but sadly, that did not happen.

This loss was not a strictly X and Os matters. If the LVs shot 10 for 22 (which meant they could also press OSU after a made basketball rather than giving off transition buckets), Holly's game plan would have looked just fine.

The fundamental question is what is about the players program that leads to these horrific shooting droughts. Why can't they find ways to get their offensive stars more involved and break out of a stagnant half court offense?

Per those questions, the LVs freshman PGs did not evolve that much over the course of the season. They tended to make the same mistakes against OSU that they did early in the season.

There is a problem in the system.

My guess is that following this loss, Holly will get a one-year extension (that almost has to be done or recruiting is handicapped) but, a one-year extension always signals that the next year is make or break.

But what would constitute a make or a break. I think a repeat of this season (inconsistent conference play and not making the Sweet 16) would probably spell the end.

But, it seems unlikely that the judgment standard for Holly would be a return to the final four. Rather, I think the bare minimum will be a return to the sweet 16 and at least a top 3 finish in the SEC. And meeting those benchmarks won't be easy given the loss of Russel and Nared. Davis has a really good chance of more then filling the Nared void but the post is a big question mark. Green is a good role player but I don't see her being a winning match-up game in and game out. A lot rides on KK improving her fitness and all round game. I hope she is driven to improve.

Michelle Voepel has a good assessment of the state of LV basketball in the broader context of the NCAAW and may comments above are fairly consistent with her take:

Is Tennessee Lady Vols coach Holly Warlick on the hot seat?

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Here's more stats. In the last 4 years, we have the following program records..

Most losses in a season (2016)
Most losses in a 2 season stretch (2016 and 2017)
Most losses in a 3 season stretch (2016 - 2018)
Most losses in a 4 season stretch (2015 - 2018)

 

[vol-un-tear]

Here's more stats. In the last 4 years, we have the following program records..

Most losses in a season (2016)
Most losses in a 2 season stretch (2016 and 2017)
Most losses in a 3 season stretch (2016 - 2018)
Most losses in a 4 season stretch (2015 - 2018)

Yikes! And we can’t beat lowly Alabama

 

[Nuyoika]

Can someone tell me why everyone keeps suggesting that a team that doesn't shoot the 3 well and didn't recruit 3 point shooters should shoot their way out of a zone? That's crazy. There are other ways to beat the zone and unless the 3 is an actual part of your offense and it isn't and hasn't really been ever to my knowledge for the LV, why on earth would that be option number one?

Option 1: Stop the dribble, weave, hand off. Get in actionable motion.
Option 2. Flash through the center of the zone.
Option 3. Use the short corner and the high post instead of the left and right block. This forces the zone to have to think. With Davis in the short corner I feel this is the best option.
Option 4. You can screen the zone, if you understand spacing & movement.
Option 5. If all else fails and you aren't a 3 point shooting team. Then you shoot the 3.

You can destroy a zone if you understand passing and spacing without ever taking a 3.

 

[madtownvol]

Can someone tell me why everyone keeps suggesting that a team that doesn't shoot the 3 well and didn't recruit 3 point shooters should shoot their way out of a zone? That's crazy. There are other ways to beat the zone and unless the 3 is an actual part of your offense and it isn't and hasn't really been ever to my knowledge for the LV, why on earth would that be option number one?

Option 1: Stop the dribble, weave, hand off. Get in actionable motion.
Option 2. Flash through the center of the zone.
Option 3. Use the short corner and the high post instead of the left and right block. This forces the zone to have to think. With Davis in the short corner I feel this is the best option.
Option 4. You can screen the zone, if you understand spacing & movement.
Option 5. If all else fails and you aren't a 3 point shooting team. Then you shoot the 3.

You can destroy a zone if you understand passing and spacing without ever taking a 3.

There is something called the opponent. OSU switched well and did leave the LVs with a lot space or options. If you look at the game, you will see that the LVs tried different schemes. And they did get some open shots in the mid range area but clanked them. At some point, the ball needs to go through the hoop.

I go back to a critical play in the 4th; the LVs had cut the lead to 5 and Mercedes steals the ball in mid court. She has two guards on her outside but OSU hustled back and had the passing lanes shut and then stole the ball from MR and scored--in effect a 4 pt. swing.

The bottom line is that OSU played really good defense but they were leaving the perimeter wide open. I am afraid being able to shoot the 3 ball is part of the game and the games that LVs have won against better teams were also those where they DID hit outside shots.

 

[leejoek]

There is something called the opponent. OSU switched well and did leave the LVs with a lot space or options. If you look at the game, you will see that the LVs tried different schemes. And they did get some open shots in the mid range area but clanked them. At some point, the ball needs to go through the hoop.

I go back to a critical play in the 4th; the LVs had cut the lead to 5 and Mercedes steals the ball in mid court. She has two guards on her outside but OSU hustled back and had the passing lanes shut and then stole the ball from MR and scored--in effect a 4 pt. swing.

The bottom line is that OSU played really good defense but they were leaving the perimeter wide open. I am afraid being able to shoot the 3 ball is part of the game and the games that LVs have won against better teams were also those where they DID hit outside shots.

Is requiring each lady vol to shoot a thousand shots a day too cruel?

 

[madtownvol]

Is requiring each lady vol to shoot a thousand shots a day too cruel?

I don't know about the exact number of reps, but they have to become a better shooting team. What ever they (players and coaches) have been doing is NOT good enough.

 

[Nuyoika]

There is something called the opponent. OSU switched well and did leave the LVs with a lot space or options. If you look at the game, you will see that the LVs tried different schemes. And they did get some open shots in the mid range area but clanked them. At some point, the ball needs to go through the hoop.

I go back to a critical play in the 4th; the LVs had cut the lead to 5 and Mercedes steals the ball in mid court. She has two guards on her outside but OSU hustled back and had the passing lanes shut and then stole the ball from MR and scored--in effect a 4 pt. swing.

The bottom line is that OSU played really good defense but they were leaving the perimeter wide open. I am afraid being able to shoot the 3 ball is part of the game and the games that LVs have won against better teams were also those where they DID hit outside shots.

I am talking about how to get lay ups vs a zone. Jumpers aren't always gonna fall. If a team can switch and still cover you in a zone then you either aren't cutting hard enough or at all, aren't passing crisp enough or quickly enough, or your spacing is severly off, likely a bit of all 3.

Oregon State is a very good defensive team, however; what I watched didn't look like a bunch of different offensive schemes. I will rewatch again and give you the benefit of the doubt though here. I'm just saying when you hear the fans start howling once a team is playing you zone it generally is because the players aren't moving.

 

[volfanIND]

Coach Holly Warlick’s offense design is high percentage shots = paint points = get the ball into MR. the team this year focused on working the ball around and no quick shots allowed. There are no ‘sets’ in our offense that caters to ‘shooters’. All the sets are focused on paint points. The rest of the focus is on defensive sets after a made basket. Another post said it earlier - no made shots, no defense set being utilized. (Press)

 

[Sportslady]

Is requiring each lady vol to shoot a thousand shots a day too cruel?

It is reported numerous time that it’s exactly what Admiral Schofield (UT men) did last summer. 1,000 shots per day. Unbelievable improvement and was a major reason the men’s season brought them from a 13th SEC pre season to finish 13th in the nation - regular season ranking.